[1] GPS velocities measured in the Pamir and surrounding regions show a total of 30 mm/yr of northward relative motion between stable Pakistan and Eurasia. The convergence budget is partitioned into 10-15 mm/yr of localized shortening across the Trans-Alai Thrust, which bounds the Pamir on the north, consistent with southward subduction of intact lithosphere. Another 10-15 mm/yr of shortening is distributed across the Chitral Himalaya and Hindu Kush, suggesting that Hindu Kush seismicity might be related to northward subduction of Indian lithosphere. Modest shortening at <5 mm/yr occurs north of the Trans-Alai Thrust, across the South Tien Shan and between the Ferghana Valley and Eurasia. Negligible north-south shortening occurs within the high Pamir, but as much as 5 mm/yr, and perhaps 10 mm/yr, of east-west extension occurs within this region. This extension is matched by a comparable amount of east-west shortening in the Tajik Depression. The localization of shortening to the margins of the Pamir combined with observations of distributed internal extension implies that the east-west vertically averaged, horizontal compressive normal stress is smaller than the north-south compressive stress.

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We analyze retrospectively/prospectively the transient variations of six different physical parameters in the atmosphere/ionosphere during the M7.8 and M7.3 earthquakes in Nepal, namely: 1) outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) at the top of the atmosphere (TOA); 2) GPS/TEC; 3) the very-low-frequency (VLF/LF) signals at the receiving stations in Bishkek (Kyrgyzstan) and Varanasi (India); 4) Radon observations; 5) Atmospheric chemical potential from assimilation models; and; 6) Air Temperature from NOAA ground stations. We found that in mid-March 2015, there was a rapid increase in the radiation from the atmosphere observed by satellites. This anomaly was located close to the future M7.8 epicenter and reached a maximum on April 21–22. The GPS/TEC data analysis indicated an increase and variation in electron density, reaching a maximum value during April 22–24. A strong negative TEC anomaly in the crest of EIA (Equatorial Ionospheric Anomaly) occurred on April 21, and a strong positive anomaly was recorded on April 24, 2015. The behavior of VLF-LF waves along NWC-Bishkek and JJY-Varanasi paths has shown abnormal behavior during April 21–23, several days before the first, stronger earthquake. Our continuous satellite OLR analysis revealed this new strong anomaly on May 3, which was why we anticipated another major event in the area. On May 12, 2015, an M7.3 earthquake occurred. Our results show coherence between the appearance of these pre-earthquake transient’s effects in the atmosphere and ionosphere (with a short time-lag, from hours up to a few days) and the occurrence of the 2015 M7.8 and M7.3 events. The spatial characteristics of the pre-earthquake anomalies were associated with a large area but inside the preparation region estimated by Dobrovolsky-Bowman. The pre-earthquake nature of the signals in the atmosphere and ionosphere was revealed by simultaneous analysis of satellite, GPS/TEC, and VLF/LF and suggest that they follow a general temporal-spatial evolution pattern that has been seen in other large earthquakes worldwide.

[1] A 450 km long north-south magnetotelluric profile spanning the Tien Shan from Kazakhstan to western China reveals lateral variations in the resistivity of the mantle lithosphere to depths of 140 km. Minimum changes of one order of magnitude in this depth range result from variations in temperature or composition, or both. Higher resistivities beneath a central portion of the range where the Moho is half as deep as elsewhere in the Tien Shan indicate a strong lithospheric block. We propose that this block protects this region of thin crust from appreciable deformation and instead transmits stresses due to India-Asia plate convergence from the southern to the northern parts of the range.