No abstract

The article assesses the impact of various factors on the growth rate of international trade. Many experts interpreted the cross-border flows of goods decline against the backdrop of a growing global economy as an alarming sign that indicates a slowdown in the processes of globalization. To determine the reasons for the dynamics of international trade, the decompositions of its growth rate were carried out and allowed to single out the effect of the dollar exchange rate, the commodities prices and global value chains on the change in the volume of trade. As a result, it was discovered that the most part of the dynamics of international trade is due to fluctuations in the exchange rate of the dollar and prices for basic commodity groups. The negative contribution of trade within global value chains in 2014 was also revealed. During the investigated period (2000—2014), such a picture was observed only in the crisis periods, which may indicate the beginning of structural changes in the world trade.

Starting in 2026, the EU will introduce the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). Under this mechanism imports of certain products to the EU will be subject to a special fee based on the carbon intensity of these goods. This article is devoted to the quantification of payments under this mechanism for several countries in the Eurasian region: the EAEU member states, Georgia, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. These countries were chosen due to the relatively high share of the EU in their exports. CBAM payments have a dynamic nature because certain parameters of the mechanism vary on an annual basis under the influence of a number of factors, for example, due to the annual change in the CBAM rate. According to the estimates obtained, the lowest aggregate CBAM payment accrues to imports from Armenia to the EU. Between 2026 and 2035 it is estimated 95.8 million euros (single CBAM pass-through rate into final prices in EU). The largest payment is estimated to come from Russia: it amounts to 97 billion euros over the same period (zero CBAM pass-through rate). The largest share of payments in exports to the EU is observed for Uzbekistan, Georgia, Tajikistan and Belarus. The largest share of payments falls on imports of metals (ferrous and non-ferrous), fertilizers, electricity and oil. However, the conclusion on products requires additional verification, since for a number of countries in the Eurasian region there are no high-quality and detailed data on the carbon intensity of certain goods.

Аннотация Согласно теоретическим исследованиям применение бюджетных правил при разработке фискальной политики позволяет улучшить контроль над бюджетным дефицитом и повысить макроэкономическую стабильность. Кроме того, эмпирические исследования эффектов использования бюджетных правил говорят об их позитивном влиянии на долгосрочный экономический рост и состояние бюджета. В то же время практика использования бюджетных правил не всегда позволяла достигать необходимых результатов фискальной политики, что стало причиной многочисленных модификаций и пересмотров правил. В настоящей статье представлена эволюция подходов к разработке бюджетных правил, выделены основные этапы их развития и причины происходящих изменений. На основе данных международных организаций и национальных законодательств стран дана подробная характеристика современных тенденций в выборе правил и их комбинаций. Выявлено, что все большую популярность получают правила, таргетирующие бюджетные расходы, которые обычно применяются в комбинации ограничений на уровень государственного долга и бюджетного дефицита. Важным элементом конструкции современных бюджетных правил стал учет влияния экономического цикла на бюджетные показатели, что позволяет улучшить стабилизационный эффект от их применения.

The paper considers the major problems of integrating the RF oil companies in modern international transport infrastructure of foreign oil and gas trade. Efficiency of diversification of export strategy and of modernizing export capacities strategy are assessed as exemplified by the Rosneft company.