No abstract

Predictive scenarios for the development of energy integration: the nature and stages The desire of countries for survival and sustainable development has led to integration into regional associations, one of which is the EAEU and the Silk Road countries. The increased influence of external factors on the functioning of national economies led to the search for joint ways to reduce their negative impact. These processes reinforce the integration trends, which are considered as the pattern of development of the Eurasian space. Within the framework of a single space, the need to strengthen the energy security of the countries of the Union is growing. The gradual unification and formation of the largest single financial, energy and transport markets in the Eurasian space as a result of strengthening Хабаршы. Халықаралық қатынастар және халықаралық құқық сериясы. №1 (85). 2019 116 Энергетикалық интеграцияны дамытудың болжамдық сценарийлері: мазмұны мен кезеңдері integration processes necessitates strengthening the country's energy security, since weak regulation of the energy integration process can create conditions for economic, technical and social backwardness. In this regard, this article sets the goal-based on statistical data of state structures, target indicators of energy development, the authors' studies show the prognostic scenarios for the development of energy integration in the framework of the EAEU and the Silk Road countries. The study was developed on the basis of three indicators, the first, analyzing the importance of energy integration for the Republic of Kazakhstan, the second, assessing the level of energy security of the Republic of Kazakhstan, by means of mathematical modeling and the third, studying the forecast scenario and macroeconomic indicators within the EAEU space. To achieve this goal, we used methods of comparative, comparative, scientific and theoretical analysis of sources.

Since 2014, many experts, politicians and diplomats have been discussing the possibility of politically and economically effectively linking the Eurasian Economic Union and the Chinese Silk Road Economic Belt initiative. The initiative to create the Silk Road Economic Belt implies the creation of a large international economic niche in Eurasia, where it will be possible to invest practically all projects planned in foreign policy and foreign economic spheres. In addition, the SREB initiative implies the construction of a symbiotic system in the Eurasian space, characterized by a free structure, high inclusivity, its main principle is «partnership without an alliance». There is a very active discussion of the possibilities of even wider integration and the construction of a «Greater Eurasia» or economic partnership based on a set of integration processes and various forms of trade and economic, as well as transport and energy cooperation between the EAEU, PRC, ASEAN, EU and other leading economic associationsin the Eurasian space. At the same time, when Kazakhstan is at the stage of political transformation, today the republic is located between the two most economically powerful centers of the continent -the European Union and the People's Republic of China. Each of them significantly exceeds the Eurasian Economic Union in terms of aggregate economic power. This situation prompts Russia to position the EAEU as an «effective link between Europe and the dynamic Asia-Pacific region». In this regard, this article sets the goal of disclosing the conjugations of two promising and economically ambitious «unions» that can fundamentally affect the further economic growth of the state. And also do an analysis of the problems and development prospects of both the EAEU and the SREB.