Since the current state of the global financial system can be described as a crisis of excessive debt, Ukraine’s foreign debt is crucial for the present stage of stable development. Inefficient use of external borrowed funds results in a real loss of economic and political security of the state, particularly in a decline of living standards. The purpose of the article is to analyze Ukraine’s government-backed debt, subsistence minimum, minimum and averagewages, and to identify cause-effect relationships between the external debt, the cost of living, minimum and average wages using econometric models. The paper also analyzes dynamics of government-backed external debt and indicators of living standards in Ukraine over 1996- 2016 as well as interrelation between them. A number of trend models which show dynamics of Ukraine’s external debt, subsistence minimum, minimum and average wages are developed. These models are used to calculate their projected values. The authors have developed and justified economic and mathematical models of dependencies of subsistence minimum, minimum and average wages on the foreign state debt, and economic and mathematical models of dependencies of the government-backed external debt on subsistence minimum, minimum and average wages. It is noted that there is a strong dependency of subsistence minimum and minimum wage. Periods of dynamics of subsistence minimum, minimum and average wages, calculated in hryvnia and dollar equivalents, are defined. It is shown that the trends of the above-mentioned indicators have the same branches or periods. Moreover, it is proved that as compared with hryvnia, dollar plays a significant role in shaping indicators of living standards in Ukraine. Distributed lag models of dependencies of subsistence minimum, minimum and average wages on the foreign debt are calculated. The models show that the main impact of the government-backed external debt on subsistence minimum and minimum wage is four years overdue. The models with instrumental variables of direct and inverse dependencies of the external debt on subsistence minimum and of subsistence minimum on the external debt are developed and justified. These models are used to forecast the researched indicators.

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The research paper analyzes the dynamics of minimum and average pensions, minimum wage, living wage, consumer price index, and gross external debt of Ukraine. The causal connections between the minimum pension and the researched parameters are presented in UAH and dollar terms. The necessity of econometric modeling for studying socio-economic indicators of living standards is highlighted. The main trends of the impact of the minimum wage, the living wage, the consumer price index, the gross external debt on the minimum pension are overviewed.The predicted values of the minimum pension in Ukraine in UAH in 2017-2021 are calculated, and the confidence intervals of them with a high degree of confidence are given. The ratio of the minimum pension to the minimum wage in UAH and dollar terms is calculated. The econometric models of the dependencies of minimum pension on the minimum wage are presented in UAH and dollar terms. According to econometric models a rise of the minimum wage is accompanied by a rise of the minimum pension. The econometric models of the dependencies of the minimum pension on the subsistence minimum in UAH and dollar terms are presented. According to the models, a rise of the subsistence minimum is accompanied by an increase in the minimum pension. Also, the econometric models of the dependencies of the minimum pension on the consumer price index in UAH and dollar terms are developed. The econometric models prove that a rise of the inflation rate leads to a rise of the minimum pension. Since 2014 the growth of consumer price index has been accompanied by a rapid decline of the minimum pension in dollar terms. The econometric model which shows the dependence of the consumer price index on the minimum pension is developed in UAH and dollar terms. From the model it follows that an increase of the minimum pension results in higher inflation. The econometric models of the dependencies of the minimum pension on the gross external debt are presented in UAH and dollar terms. It is shown that by 2014, foreign loans in UAH and dollar terms were welcome in order to raise pensions which led to the rapid rise of the latter. In recent years the growth of debt in the UAH slightly affected the growth of the minimum pension in UAH, whereas the growth of debt in dollars led to a significant decline in the minimum pension in dollar terms.