Based on the analysis of scientific resources on the theory of government, political process and public policy, the authors substantiate a conceptual model for assessing the stability and sustainability of state systems. The model is based on empirical analysis of the stability and sustainability of state systems obtained through semi-structured interviews with experts. The authors’ approach includes four main parameters for assessing the stability and sustainability of state systems with the focus on the role of state institutions in coordinating modern politics. The authors emphasize that the notion of ‘transition from government to governance’ often discussed in Russian and foreign scientific literature only demonstrates the possible changes in the role of state institutions in the public area and directions of transformation of public policy, without directly imply that. In this case, it seems promising to search for such conditions that would direct the transformation, and to develop a conceptual framework for diagnosing the state systems’ capacity to change.

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АННОТАЦИЯ. Приближающаяся годовщина распада СССР дает возможность посмотреть на тенденции развития государственных систем, возникших на его осколках. Ретроспективный взгляд на этот процесс, получивший различные (иногда противоречи-вые) политические и экспертные оценки, ставит главный вопрос-о состоятельности и перспективах устойчивого развития стран бывшего СССР. Общее прошлое продолжает оказывать существенное влияние через советское наследие, что делает эти страны Теория политики1

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Against the background of political instability in Belarus and unsuccessful attempts to “deepen integration” in 2019-2020, the political economy of Russian-Belarusian cooperation as a subject of study goes far beyond academic interest and is of great practical importance. The article suggests that explanation of the integration difficulties in inside the nature of the existing Belarusian political and economic model, which becomes the main object of analysis. By analogy with the political economic model of “Putinomics” by С.Miller and the results of a comparative analysis, the political economic model of “Lukashenomics” and its main strategies (centralization of power, a high level of social obligations, state control of the economy, extraction of “political rent” from relations with Russia and the priority statehood over state solvency) are explained. On the basis of the model of resilience and stability of state systems developed earlier by the author as part of the team, the influence of the “Lukashenomics” on the resilience and stability of the state system of Belarus is determined. The fundamental incompatibility of the existing Belarusian and Russian political economic models is revealed and the prospects for the development of Russian-Belarusian relations in the context of possible scenarios for the transformation of the Belarusian model are determined.