We consider simulation of the present day climate with the use of the climate model INM-CM48 in comparison with the result of the previous model INMCM4.0 which used different parameterizations of many physical processes and also in comparison with the model INM-CM5 which uses the same parameterizations, but with better spatial resolution. It is shown that the model INM-CM48 reproduces the modern climate better than the model INMCM4.0 in most indicators.

Text original de l'article en rus: Ó K.G. Rubinshtein, M.M. Smirnova, V.I. Bychkova, S.V. Emelina, R.Yu. Ignatov, V.M. Khan, V.A. Tishchenko, E. Roget, 2014, published in Meteorologiya i Gidrologiya, 2014, No. 11, pp. 24-35.Described is the impact of the Aral Sea desiccation on the local climate and the impact of its numerical prediction in the region. Presented is the analysis of two series of numerical experiments with the WRF-ARW model (numerical prediction and weather research) with the spatial resolution of 5 km and 28 σ-surfaces along the vertical up to the level of 50 hPa for the Aral Sea region. In the first series of forecasts for January and July 2009, underlying surface parameters from the MODIS database are used. In these series the sea surface mask corresponds to the Aral Sea configuration in the 1970s. In another group of experiments, the characteristics of the underlying surface of the Aral Sea area are replaced by the respective characteristics of the surrounding land. To study the effects of variations of surface properties, air temperature, humidity, cloudiness, precipitation, and wind are analyzed. It is demonstrated that if the Aral Sea is assumed to be absent in the model, this results in the significant strengthening of the continentality of regional climate and in the increase in the forecast skill scores. The supposition is made that the regular (at least each 3–5 years) update of global databases with the description of underlying surface properties due to the climate change can result in the considerable increase in the accuracy of numerical prediction and climate change modelin

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Ab stract-Pres ented is the re view of the in di ces of weather con di tion com fort that are most fre quently used in biometeorology. De scribed are prac ti cal and lab o ra tory ex per i ments car ried out by the au thors that helped de riv ing for mulae for their computation as well as the lim its of ap pli ca bil ity of these in di ces. To as sess the im pact of chang ing weather con di tions and their ag gre gate (biometeorological in di ces) on pop u la tion health in dif fer ent sea sons, the data of med i cal sta tis tics were used: on daily mor tal ity of heart at tacks in Murmansk (2001Murmansk ( -2004, on daily mor tal ity of cor o nary heart dis ease in Mos cow (2007)(2008)(2009)(2010), and on daily am bu lance calls with the es sen tial hy per ten sion di ag no sis in Kislovodsk (2006Kislovodsk ( -2008. De ter mined are the in di ces hav ing significant cor re la tion with the data of med i cal sta tistics. Using the method of cross-correlation anal y sis of the daily se ries of am bu lance calls and deaths, it was pos si ble to iden tify the pe riod of the re sponse of the hu man or gan ism with car dio vas cu lar dis eases to chang ing weather con di tions dur ing the warm and cold sea sons. IN TRO DUC TIONIn na tional me te o ro log i cal ser vices, great at ten tion is cur rently paid to the fore cast of ad verse weather con di tions. First of all, this is the fore cast of anom a lous heat (cold), heavy pre cip i ta tion (rain and snow), and wind [17]. One of the ma jor ob jec tives of such sys tems is also the warn ing of pop u la tion about the poten tial dan ger to the health caused by the in flu ence of weather con di tions. It is noted in many pa pers [5,13,14] that the in crease in the fre quency and du ra tion of so called heat (cold) waves af fects pop u la tion health neg a tively. More over, the im pact of weather con di tions be comes more and more in ten sive [6,19]. The great at ten tion to this prob lem has been paid af ter sev eral ep i sodes of ab nor mal con di tions with the apo gee of the early 21st cen tury in the form of the heat reg is tered in Eu rope in sum mer 2003. Ac cord ing to the data pre sented in [17], in Eu rope (Ger many, It aly, France, and Swit zer land) some ser vices use dif fer ent com bina tions of me te o ro log i cal pa ram e ters for pre dict ing the load of weather conditions. As a re sult of at tempts to unite sev eral fac tors of the hu man en vi ron ment that af fect the sen sa tion of warmth, into a cer tain common pa ram e ter, a num ber of in di ces has been worked out.The ob jec tive of the pres ent pa per is to study the in for ma tive ness both of biometeorological in di ces and of me te o ro log i cal pa ram e ters in or der to iden tify the pa ram e ter which in di cates the best the re sponse of the hu man or gan ism. To eval u ate the im pact of chang ing weather con di tions and of their ag gre gate on pop u lation health, dif fer ent pa ram e ters are used in clud ing at trib u tive (ad di tional) mor tal ity, mor bid ity, and hos pital...

The possibility of developing specialized seasonal forecasting within the framework of the North Eurasia Climate Centre is discussed. The purpose of these forecasts is to access the impacts of significant large-scale anomalies of meteorological elements on various economic sectors for the timely informing of government services and private businesses to select optimal strategies for planning preventive measures. A brief overview of the groups of climatic risks in the context of the impacts on the socio-economic sphere is given according to the Russian and foreign bibliographic sources. Examples of the activities of some Regional Climate Centers that produce forecast information with an assessment of possible impacts of weather and climate conditions at seasonal scales on various human activities are given. Keywords: climate services, regional climate forums, weather and climate risks, North Eurasia Climate Centre