Many economic applications including optimal pricing and inventory management requires prediction of demand based on sales data and estimation of sales reaction to a price change. There is a wide range of econometric approaches which are used to correct a bias in estimates of demand parameters on censored sales data. These approaches can also be applied to various classes of machine learning models to reduce the prediction error of sales volume. In this study we construct two ensemble models for demand prediction with and without accounting for demand censorship. Accounting for sales censorship is based on the idea of censored quantile regression method where the model estimation is splitted on two separate parts: a) prediction of zero sales by classification model; and b) prediction of non-zero sales by regression model. Models with and without accounting for censorship are based on the predictions aggregations of Least squares, Ridge and Lasso regressions and Random Forest model. Having estimated the predictive properties of both models, we empirically test the best predictive power of the model that takes into account the censored nature of demand. We also show that machine learning method with censorship accounting provide bias corrected estimates of demand sensitivity for price change similar to econometric models.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.
customersupport@researchsolutions.com
10624 S. Eastern Ave., Ste. A-614
Henderson, NV 89052, USA
This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.
Copyright © 2024 scite LLC. All rights reserved.
Made with 💙 for researchers
Part of the Research Solutions Family.