100 million years of turtle paleoniche dynamics enable the prediction of latitudinal range shifts in a warming world

Chiarenza, Alfio Alessandro; Waterson, Amy; Schmidt, Daniela N; Valdes, Paul J.; Yesson, Chris; Holroyd, Patricia A.; Collinson, Margaret E.; Farnsworth, Alexander; Nicholson, David B.; Varela, Sara; Barrett, Paul M.

doi:10.1016/j.cub.2022.11.056

Cited by 8 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 74 publications

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“…The model simulations were conducted in a similar vein as comprehensively described in Lunt et al ( 78 ), Valdes et al ( 79 ), and Farnsworth et al ( 80 ). The implications of deep-time studies of these GCM constraints were discussed in previous studies ( 17 , 29 , 81 – 83 ). In summary, the model simulations ran for at least 6000 (often many thousands of years more) model years until they reached full equilibrium in both the atmosphere and deep ocean.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 73%

“…Despite the inherent uncertainty in the data, these models effectively replicated the modern-day climates of most terrestrial biomes ( 79 ). Importantly, HadCM3L played a pivotal role in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project experiments and demonstrated its utility in various Mesozoic paleobiogeographical investigations ( 17 , 29 , 81 , 82 , 84 ). The paleogeographic data employed in this study were derived from the dataset created by Scotese & Wright ( 71 ).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…As is common in all climate models, sub-grid scale processes such as cloud, convection and oceanic eddies are parameterized as they cannot be (80). The implications of deep-time studies of these GCM constraints were discussed in previous studies (17,29,(81)(82)(83). In summary, the model simulations ran for at least 6000 (often many thousands of years more) model years until they reached full equilibrium in both the atmosphere and deep ocean.…”

Section: Paleoclimate Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For instance, modern birds and mammals have achieved nearly global distributions, extending from the tropics to polar regions. In contrast, most reptilian lineages, such as squamates, turtles, crocodilians, and amphibians, primarily inhabit regions closer to the tropics, their distribution and diversity predominantly constrained by temperature, except for well-defined hyperthermal events in the geological past ( 29 ). Determining when this broader macroecological pattern emerged within the avian lineage remains a pivotal question, strongly contingent upon uncovering the origin of these critical physiological traits.…”

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confidence: 99%

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Early Jurassic origin of avian endothermy and thermophysiological diversity in Dinosauria

Chiarenza,

Cantalapiedra,

Jones

et al. 2023

Preprint

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A fundamental question in dinosaur evolution is how they adapted to substantial long-term shifts in Earth System during the Mesozoic and when they developed environmentally independent, avian-style acclimatization due to the evolution of an endothermic physiology. Combining fossil occurrences with macroevolutionary and paleoclimatic models, we unveil distinct evolutionary pathways in the main dinosaur lineages: ornithischians and theropods diversified across broader climatic landscapes, trending toward cooler niches. An Early Jurassic shift to colder climates in Theropoda suggests an early adoption of endothermic thermophysiology. Conversely, sauropodomorphs exhibited prolonged climatic conservatism associated with higher thermal conditions. Paleo-biome mapping emphasizes temperature, rather than plant productivity, as the primary driver of this pattern, suggesting poikilothermic physiology with a stronger dependence on higher temperatures in sauropods since the Early Jurassic.One-Sentence SummaryDinosaur climatic evolution reveals early endothermy emergence in theropods, ornithischians but heterotherm sauropodomorphs.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 73%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Paleoclimate Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Early Jurassic origin of avian endothermy and thermophysiological diversity in Dinosauria

Chiarenza,

Cantalapiedra,

Jones

et al. 2023

Preprint

Self Cite

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“…Incorporating deeper‐time fossil occurrence records, and temporally associated palaeoenvironment data, into HSMs may better capture the species–environment relationship prior to the onset of extensive anthropogenic pressures and range contractions (Chiarenza et al., 2023). The fossil record contains long‐term distribution and ecological data on species responses to past climatic change (Myers et al., 2015; Waterson et al., 2016).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Going back for the future: Incorporating Pleistocene fossil records of saiga antelope into habitat suitability models

Mills,

Schreve,

Middleton

et al. 2024

Journal of Biogeography

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AimMany species have suffered anthropogenic range contraction and no longer occupy all available suitable environmental conditions. This is particularly problematic for the construction of habitat suitability models (HSMs), which assume that a species' contemporary range reflects its full species–environment relationship. HSMs therefore risk underestimating suitable environment areas, and misinforming conservation decisions. Incorporating historic (centuries‐old) records partly reduces this bias, but even these records are also subject to human disturbance. We incorporated fossil records of the critically endangered saiga antelope (Saiga tatarica, L., 1776), alongside historic and current records, into current and future habitat suitability models. Saiga has experienced drastic range contraction and may have a truncated species–environment relationship. The results allowed us to test whether its current habitat provides optimal environmental conditions, or whether saiga should be considered a refugee species.LocationNorthern Hemisphere.TaxonSaiga tatarica (Bovidae, Artiodactyla).MethodsWe collated historic and fossil saiga occurrence records from published literature, museum archives and global databases. Modern occurrence records were obtained from the International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List assessment. Four bioclimatic variables were downloaded from Worldclim.org. HSMs were generated through Maxent, using the maxnet package in R. Three HSMs were developed: present only, present historic and present fossil. Each of these models was projected onto current and two future (2070) climate change scenarios.ResultsSaiga fossil records increased the predicted suitable environment area by 783% and 1416% for current and future climate projections respectively. Our results suggest the saiga is not a refugee species but occupies only a portion of its potential environmental niche. The saiga's contemporary range is predicted environmentally suitable throughout all models and projections, and therefore in situ conservation management is recommended.Main ConclusionsThis study highlights the importance of incorporating fossil records into HSMs to better understand species–environment relationships and develop more robust conservation strategies for appropriate endangered species.

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Too much of a good thing? Supplementing current species observations with fossil data to assess climate change vulnerability via ecological niche models

Belfiore,

Mondanaro,

Castiglione

et al. 2024

Biological Conservation

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100 million years of turtle paleoniche dynamics enable the prediction of latitudinal range shifts in a warming world

Cited by 8 publications

References 74 publications

Early Jurassic origin of avian endothermy and thermophysiological diversity in Dinosauria

Early Jurassic origin of avian endothermy and thermophysiological diversity in Dinosauria

Going back for the future: Incorporating Pleistocene fossil records of saiga antelope into habitat suitability models

Too much of a good thing? Supplementing current species observations with fossil data to assess climate change vulnerability via ecological niche models

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