2 Scenario planning: characteristics and current issues

Schmidt-Scheele, Ricarda

doi:10.14361/9783839453193-005

Cited by 3 publications

(3 citation statements)

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“…The procedure calculates both direct and indirect influences. Then, internal consistency can be assessed to purify possible combinations and unfold plausible combinations as scenarios (Kurniawan et al , 2022), which is a critical precondition for plausibility of a combination (as a possible future) (Schmidt-Scheele, 2020). As a strength, CIB can investigate both qualitative and quantitative factors because it studies the interdependencies using experts’ judgments, so researchers are allowed to set up a multidimensional study (Kurniawan et al , 2022).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Iran’s approach to energy policy towards 2040: a participatory scenario method

Hafezi

Heirani

Akbari

et al. 2023

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Purpose In the case of Iran, about 19 years have passed since the announcement of general energy policies. Policies adopted in the past included too many approaches and goals for the energy sector that some of them are in conflict with each other and their simultaneous implementation was impossible. Therefore, many of the expected goals of these policies have not been achieved. It is very important to adopt an appropriate approach that is compatible with the country’s characteristics and can steer energy policies. Therefore, this study aims to adopt an appropriate approach for the country’s energy sector according to the conditions and needs of the country. Design/methodology/approach A participatory scenario technique is designed and used to develop plausible projections in the case of Iran’s energy futures. Based on the proposed methodology, the research process starts with data gathering through interviews and national plans analysis. Then, findings were used as inputs to a simulation-based scenario development process. Scenarios are developed based on Monte Carlo simulation via cross-impact analysis technique purified based on expert judgments. Findings In this paper, to recognize Iran’s general approach to energy in the next 20 years, driving forces of change were introduced and used as input for the scenario development phase. Results showed sanctions play a significant role in Iran’s energy future and determine the directions of other driving forces. For renewable energy, it was proposed to increase the renewable share in Iran’s electricity generation mix to 5% of the total installed capacity. In the case of fossil fuel extraction, the maximum efficient rate was proposed for both oil and natural gas national production strategy. Originality/value This research is novel both in terms of application and theory. A new participatory scenario development method is used using simulations that are equipped based on experts’ judgments. Also from the practical perspective, this research targeted a future-oriented challenging problem to initialize national policy in a resource-rich developing economy (i.e. Iran).

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Iran’s approach to energy policy towards 2040: a participatory scenario method

Hafezi

Heirani

Akbari

et al. 2023

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“…A software like ScenarioWizard (Weimer-Jehle 2021 ) is used to calculate the impact balances for each possible scenario to determine which scenarios are internally consistent (i.e., self-reinforcing and stable) or internally inconsistent (i.e., transient or unstable). Scenarios that are internally consistent are considered plausible by many CIB analysts (Schmidt-Scheele 2020 ). A full description of the mathematics of impact balances and internally consistent scenarios can be found in Weimer-Jehle ( 2006 ).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Exploring “big picture” scenarios for resilience in social–ecological systems: transdisciplinary cross-impact balances modeling in the Red River Basin

2023

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Climate change is increasing the frequency and the severity of extreme events in river basins around the world. Efforts to build resilience to these impacts are complicated by the social–ecological interactions, cross-scale feedbacks, and diverse actor interests that influence the dynamics of change in social–ecological systems (SESs). In this study, we aimed to explore big-picture scenarios of a river basin under climate change by characterizing future change as emergent from interactions between diverse efforts to build resilience and a complex, cross-scale SES. To do so, we facilitated a transdisciplinary scenario modeling process structured by the cross-impact balances (CIB) method, a semi-quantitative method that applies systems theory to generate internally consistent narrative scenarios from a network of interacting drivers of change. Thus, we also aimed to explore the potential for the CIB method to surface diverse perspectives and drivers of change in SESs. We situated this process in the Red River Basin, a transboundary basin shared by the United States and Canada where significant natural climatic variability is worsened by climate change. The process generated 15 interacting drivers ranging from agricultural markets to ecological integrity, generating eight consistent scenarios that are robust to model uncertainty. The scenario analysis and the debrief workshop reveal important insights, including the transformative changes required to achieve desirable outcomes and the cornerstone role of Indigenous water rights. In sum, our analysis surfaced significant complexities surrounding efforts to build resilience and affirmed the potential for the CIB method to generate unique insights about the trajectory of SESs.

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“… 7. The concept of plausibility as an enabling/limiting inferential methodological criterion for foresight and scenario practices is widely discussed in the field of Futures Studies. In this regard, see, for instance, Fischer and Dannenberg (2021), Ramírez and Selin (2014), Schmidt-Scheele (2020), and Urueña (2019). …”

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confidence: 99%

Anticipation and modal power: Opening up and closing down the momentum of sociotechnical systems

López

2022

Soc Stud Sci

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Within STS, there are three approaches to the creation and mobilization of futures: descriptive, normative, and interventive. Visions, expectations, and imaginaries are currently seen as anticipatory artifacts that close down the momentum of sociotechnical systems and, as such, are objects of critical scrutiny. At the same time, interventive techniques engaging with future representations are considered to be useful anticipatory instruments for opening up ranges of envisaged alternatives. This article reviews STS advances concerning the performativity of both de facto and interventive anticipatory practices in shaping the momentum of sociotechnical systems in light of the phenomenon of modal power: the modulation dynamics of what actors deem to be (im)plausible and/or (un)desirable. The diverse attempts of STS scholars and practitioners to understand, critique, and engage with the politics of opening up and closing down the momentum of sociotechnical systems require engaging with the creation, mobilization, and execution of modal power. The heuristics presented here are intended to be useful in framing and recognizing the political-epistemic radicality that the creation and mobilization of sociotechnical futures holds in the constitution of our sociotechnical orders as well as the role that the attribution of (im)plausibility or (un)desirability plays in such processes.

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2 Scenario planning: characteristics and current issues

Cited by 3 publications

References 0 publications

Iran’s approach to energy policy towards 2040: a participatory scenario method

Iran’s approach to energy policy towards 2040: a participatory scenario method

Exploring “big picture” scenarios for resilience in social–ecological systems: transdisciplinary cross-impact balances modeling in the Red River Basin

Anticipation and modal power: Opening up and closing down the momentum of sociotechnical systems

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