2021 Standard Scenarios Report: A U.S. Electricity Sector Outlook

Abstract

This report is available at no cost from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) at www.nrel.gov/publications. U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) reports produced after 1991 and a growing number of pre-1991 documents are available free via www.OSTI.gov.

The Role of Buildings in U.S. Energy System Decarbonization by Mid-Century

“…This preprint research paper has not been peer reviewed. Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4253001 P r e p r i n t n o t p e e r r e v i e w e d (2-2.4) reflect a grid that is decarbonized 53% vs. 2005 levels by 2030 and 80% by 2050, which is consistent with the 2050 reduction goal of the 2016 U.S. Mid-Century strategy [66] and results in similar grid development to existing modeling scenarios that assume low renewable energy costs [67].…”

The costs of replacing coal plant jobs with local instead of distant wind and solar jobs across the United States

“…These supply curves account for infrastructure, regulatory, and physical land exclusions relevant to wind and solar power, e.g. airports and public lands, and spatially-explicit wind and solar resources (Cole et al, 2021;Lopez et al, 2021). In replacing annual rather than sub-annual generation from retired coal plants, we maintain computational tractability while accounting for the fact that other resources besides from new renewable investments would contribute to system balancing.…”

Renewable Energy and Efficiency Technologies in Scenarios of U.S. Decarbonization in Two Types of Models: Comparison of GCAM Modeling and Sector-Specific Modeling

“…ReEDS also represents a larger suite of power-sector relevant state, regional, and federal policies in effect as of June 2021, including state renewable portfolio standards policies, California's power sector carbon cap, the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative, and the Cross-State Air Pollution Rule (Cole et al 2021).…”

“…Drawing on insights from previous GCAM-USA ReEDS model comparison exercises, this study includes harmonization of only a few key parameters. Because this study uses preexisting scenarios from NREL's 2021 Standard Scenarios (Cole et al 2021), all the parameters were updated in the GCAM models only, although in previous studies parameter harmonization flowed in both directions. Key parameters updated for this study include:…”