21st century changes in the European climate: uncertainties derived from an ensemble of regional climate model simulations

KjellstrÃ¶m, Erik; Nikulin, Grigory; Hansson, Ulf; Strandberg, Gustav; Ullerstig, Anders

doi:10.3402/tellusa.v63i1.15767

Cited by 62 publications

(94 citation statements)

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“…Biases arise partly from the large-scale atmospheric circulation in the driving GCM (cf. Kjellström et al, 2011). Further, some biases over the Baltic Sea arise from the prescribed SSTs taken from ECHO-G.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The climate in the Baltic Sea region during the last millennium simulated with a regional climate model

et al. 2012

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Abstract. Variability and long-term climate change in the Baltic Sea region is investigated for the pre-industrial period of the last millennium. For the first time dynamical downscaling covering the complete millennium is conducted with a regional climate model in this area. As a result of changing external forcing conditions, the model simulation shows warm conditions in the first centuries followed by a gradual cooling until ca. 1700 before temperature increases in the last centuries. This long-term evolution, with a Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and a Little Ice Age (LIA), is in broad agreement with proxy-based reconstructions. However, the timing of warm and cold events is not captured at all times. We show that the regional response to the global climate anomalies is to a strong degree modified by the large-scale circulation in the model. In particular, we find that a positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) simulated during MCA contributes to enhancing winter temperatures and precipitation in the region while a negative NAO index in the LIA reduces them. In a second step, the regional ocean model (RCO-SCOBI) is used to investigate the impact of atmospheric changes onto the Baltic Sea for two 100 yr time slices representing the MCA and the LIA. Besides the warming of the Baltic Sea, the water becomes fresher at all levels during the MCA. This is induced by increased runoff and stronger westerly winds. Moreover, the oxygen concentrations in the deep layers are slightly reduced during the MCA. Additional sensitivity studies are conducted to investigate the impact of even higher temperatures and increased nutrient loads. The presented experiments suggest that changing nutrient loads may be more important determining oxygen depletion than changes in temperature or dynamic feedbacks.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The climate in the Baltic Sea region during the last millennium simulated with a regional climate model

et al. 2012

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“…This pattern has also been shown to underlie summer warming on longer timescales in the late Holocene (Della-Marta et al, 2007;Trouet et al, 2012;Yiou et al, 2012). Changes in atmospheric circulation have a significant influence on European climate (Sepp and Jaagus, 2002;van Ulden and van Oldenborgh, 2006;Hoy et al, 2013), but many climate models have difficulty reproducing this aspect of modern climate (van Ulden and van Oldenborgh, 2006;Woollings, 2010;Kjellstrom et al, 2011;Brands et al, 2013). The warming in Europe during the mid-Holocene simulated in climate models differs fundamentally from that shown in the data, and indicates a high sensitivity in models to the effects of the amplified seasonal insolation cycle experienced at this time, showing greater warming (cooling) in summer (winter) in response to increased (decreased) summer (winter) insolation.…”

Section: The Atmospheric Circulationmentioning

confidence: 99%

The influence of atmospheric circulation on the mid-Holocene climate of Europe: a data–model comparison

Mauri

Davis

Collins³

et al. 2014

Clim. Past

113

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Abstract. The atmospheric circulation is a key area of uncertainty in climate model simulations of future climate change, especially in mid-latitude regions such as Europe where atmospheric dynamics have a significant role in climate variability. It has been proposed that the mid-Holocene was characterized in Europe by a stronger westerly circulation in winter comparable with a more positive AO/NAO, and a weaker westerly circulation in summer caused by anticyclonic blocking near Scandinavia. Model simulations indicate at best only a weakly positive AO/NAO, whilst changes in summer atmospheric circulation have not been widely investigated. Here we use a new pollen-based reconstruction of European mid-Holocene climate to investigate the role of atmospheric circulation in explaining the spatial pattern of seasonal temperature and precipitation anomalies. We find that the footprint of the anomalies is entirely consistent with those from modern analogue atmospheric circulation patterns associated with a strong westerly circulation in winter (positive AO/NAO) and a weak westerly circulation in summer associated with anti-cyclonic blocking (positive SCAND). We find little agreement between the reconstructed anomalies and those from 14 GCMs that performed mid-Holocene experiments as part of the PMIP3/CMIP5 project, which show a much greater sensitivity to top-of-the-atmosphere changes in solar insolation. Our findings are consistent with datamodel comparisons on contemporary timescales that indicate that models underestimate the role of atmospheric circulation in recent climate change, whilst also highlighting the importance of atmospheric dynamics in explaining interglacial warming.

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“…RCA4 has been applied in a range of climate studies worldwide (e.g. Döscher et al, 2010;Kjellström et al, 2011;Sörensson and Menéndez, 2011). The land surface scheme (LSS; Samuelsson et al, 2006) adopts a tile approach and characterizes land surface with open land and forest tiles with separate energy balances.…”

Section: Model Descriptionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Vegetation–climate feedbacks modulate rainfall patterns in Africa under future climate change

Schurgers

Rummukainen

et al. 2016

Earth Syst. Dynam.

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Abstract. Africa has been undergoing significant changes in climate and vegetation in recent decades, and continued changes may be expected over this century. Vegetation cover and composition impose important influences on the regional climate in Africa. Climate-driven changes in vegetation structure and the distribution of forests versus savannah and grassland may feed back to climate via shifts in the surface energy balance, hydrological cycle and resultant effects on surface pressure and larger-scale atmospheric circulation. We used a regional Earth system model incorporating interactive vegetation-atmosphere coupling to investigate the potential role of vegetation-mediated biophysical feedbacks on climate dynamics in Africa in an RCP8.5-based future climate scenario. The model was applied at high resolution (0.44 × 0.44 • ) for the CORDEX-Africa domain with boundary conditions from the CanESM2 general circulation model. We found that increased tree cover and leafarea index (LAI) associated with a CO 2 and climate-driven increase in net primary productivity, particularly over subtropical savannah areas, not only imposed important local effect on the regional climate by altering surface energy fluxes but also resulted in remote effects over central Africa by modulating the land-ocean temperature contrast, Atlantic Walker circulation and moisture inflow feeding the central African tropical rainforest region with precipitation. The vegetation-mediated feedbacks were in general negative with respect to temperature, dampening the warming trend simulated in the absence of feedbacks, and positive with respect to precipitation, enhancing rainfall reduction over the rainforest areas. Our results highlight the importance of accounting for vegetation-atmosphere interactions in climate projections for tropical and subtropical Africa.

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21st century changes in the European climate: uncertainties derived from an ensemble of regional climate model simulations

Cited by 62 publications

References 0 publications

The climate in the Baltic Sea region during the last millennium simulated with a regional climate model

The climate in the Baltic Sea region during the last millennium simulated with a regional climate model

The influence of atmospheric circulation on the mid-Holocene climate of Europe: a data–model comparison

Vegetation–climate feedbacks modulate rainfall patterns in Africa under future climate change

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