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Searching for induced travel: Elimination of a freeway bottleneck and subsequent effects on rail and freeway volumes

“…This case study differs in that we get to directly examine the induced travel following the removal of a freeway bottleneck that has no alternate routes and has a viable alternate transit mode (BART). Indeed, lower estimates for induced travel found by Cervero (2003) as well as DeCorla-Souza and Cohen (1999) were found during the examination of specific examples and by using a more detailed model of induced effects such as travel caused by time-of-day switches.…”

Modeling Operational Flow Capacity and Evaluating Disaster Interventions for Fuel Distribution

“…Existing studies focus on upstream distribution (Sabuncuoglu and Hatip, 2005; Cafaro et al., 2010), a single terminal facility (Reis et al., 2017), outlining system vulnerabilities (Costa et al., 2019), or infrastructure improvement (DeCorla-Souza, 2018). Only a few of them analyze the effects of improving terminal bay processes and fleet size on the distribution system’s performance (e.g., Reis et al., 2017; DeCorla-Souza, 2018). Additionally, none of them consider the cyclic movement of trucks in the system.…”

“…Fuel terminals experienced a 45 normal% increase in wholesale demand for gasoline over the evacuation days, with some terminals experiencing up to a 91 normal% increase in wholesale demand. Retail gasoline sales during that period were estimated to be double the normal levels (DeCorla-Souza, 2018; Florida Department of Transportation, 2018). Nonweather events like leakage accidents, cyberattacks on infrastructure, and changes in trade policies can also increase fuel supply uncertainty and cause panic buying and hoarding (Colchester, 2021).…”

“…Finally, the distribution system is not designed to fulfill the surges in demand that often follow disasters. During Hurricane Irma, 60 normal% of stations in major cities in Florida reported fuel shortages or power outages (DeCorla-Souza, 2018; Florida Department of Transportation, 2018). During the cyber-attack on Colonial Pipeline, up to 65 normal% of stations across several states were out of fuel due to a spike in demand above the normal level (Egan and Morrow, 2021).…”

“…Studying previous disasters, we identify that the primary limiting factors associated with retail fuel availability were the terminal and transportation operations and not the fuel inventory in terminal storage tanks. For example, in Florida, terminals have 11–16 days of demand in inventory (DeCorla-Souza, 2018; Florida Department of Transportation, 2018). Thus, we study downstream fuel distribution systems and address the following research questions as part of ongoing support for the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) preparedness efforts: How can we measure the OFC in downstream fuel distribution systems, under steady state conditions and under nonsteady state conditions during disasters?…”