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Chase, Thomas N.; Knaff, John A.; Pielke, Roger A.; Kalnay, Eugenia

doi:10.1023/a:1023638030885

Cited by 68 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 63 publications

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“…Santer et al [2007] found that satellite-based estimates of global atmospheric moisture content suggest an increase over recent time and suggested that this signal provided evidence of an anthropogenic influence on the climate. However, Chase et al [2003] found no evidence of any changes in indices of monsoon circulations over the period 1950 to 1998. Smith [2004] and Zhang and Zhou [2011] noted a significant increase in Australian monsoon over recent decades but both station observations and CMAP rainfall data do not indicate a consistent, significant trend in rainfall over the WPM regions.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 72%

Large‐scale circulation features in the tropical western Pacific and their representation in climate models

Smith¹,

Moise²,

Colman³

2012

J. Geophys. Res.

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.[1] Within the Western Pacific Monsoon (WPM) region the zonal component of the low-level winds tends to weaken and reverse from east to west during the peak monsoon season, which also marks a peak in rainfall. This study examines how well climate models can simulate these phenomena prior to evaluating their projections for later this century. While a seasonal wind reversal or weakening appears to be reasonably well simulated by most models over much of the WPM, the relationships between large-scale average winds and rainfall are not always well simulated. This allows us to discriminate among the models in order to see if this affects the projections. However, it so happens that this has relatively little effect, and the predominant signal is for an increase in rainfall with a weakening or negligible change to the low-level monsoon winds. These results indicate that the WPM climate will respond more to global scale drivers such as an increase in atmospheric water vapor content and a weakening of the global circulation, rather than to more regional changes such as an increase in the land/ocean temperature contrast.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 72%

Large‐scale circulation features in the tropical western Pacific and their representation in climate models

Smith¹,

Moise²,

Colman³

2012

J. Geophys. Res.

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“…To conform to the approximate physical relationship between GHG concentration and temperature, eCO 2 was converted to a radiating forcing value using the approximation fCO 2 ≡ f (eCO 2 ) = 5.35 log e (eCO 2 /278) (Myhre et al, 1998). The work of Stone et al (1996) highlighted the large variations in frost frequency between El Niño, La Niña and ENSO-neutral years in Australia with other research (Allan and Haylock, 1993;Chase et al, 2003;Murphy and Timbal, 2008;Pezza and Ambrizzi, 2005) confirming this influence as well as highlighting further global teleconnections. For this reason, we include a time series of mean sea surface temperatures from the NINO 3.4 region (i.e.…”

Section: Other Climatic Variables and Indicesmentioning

confidence: 88%

Bayesian space–time model to analyse frost risk for agriculture in Southeast Australia

Crimp

Bakar

Kokic

et al. 2014

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Despite a broad pattern of warming in minimum temperatures over the past 50years, regions of southeastern Australia have experienced increases in frost frequency in recent decades, and more broadly across southern Australia, an extension of the frost window due to an earlier onset and later cessation. Consistent across southern Australia is a later cessation of frosts, with some areas of southeastern Australia experiencing the last frost an average 4weeks later than in the 1960s (i.e. mean date of last frost for the period 1960-1970 was 19 September versus 22 October for the period [2000][2001][2002][2003][2004][2005][2006][2007][2008][2009]. We seek to model the spatial changes in frosts for a region exhibiting the strongest individual station trends, i.e. northern Victoria and southern New South Wales. We identify statistically significant trends at low-lying stations for the month of August and construct and validate a Bayesian space-time model of minimum temperatures, using rates of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, as well as other well-understood causal factors including solar radiation, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO 3.4) and times series data relating to the position (STRP) and intensity (STRI) of subtropical highs and blocking high pressure systems. We assess the performance of this modelling approach against observational records as well as against additive and linear regression modelling approaches using root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) as well as false alarm and hit rate metrics. The spatiotemporal modelling approach demonstrated considerably better predictive skill than the others, with enhanced performance across all the metrics analysed. This enhanced performance was consistent across each decade and for temperature extremes below 2°C. Crimp, S., Bakar, K., Kokic, P., Jin, H., Nicholls, N. & Howden, M. (2015) ABSTRACT: Despite a broad pattern of warming in minimum temperatures over the past 50 years, regions of southeastern Australia have experienced increases in frost frequency in recent decades, and more broadly across southern Australia, an extension of the frost window due to an earlier onset and later cessation. Consistent across southern Australia is a later cessation of frosts, with some areas of southeastern Australia experiencing the last frost an average 4 weeks later than in the 1960s (i.e. mean date of last frost for the period 1960-1970 was 19 September versus 22 October for the period [2000][2001][2002][2003][2004][2005][2006][2007][2008][2009]. We seek to model the spatial changes in frosts for a region exhibiting the strongest individual station trends, i.e. northern Victoria and southern New South Wales. We identify statistically significant trends at low-lying stations for the month of August and construct and validate a Bayesian space-time model of minimum temperatures, using rates of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, as well as other well-understood causal factors including solar radiation, the El Niño S...

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“…A large northwestward shift (~300-500 km) of the northern edge of the EASM was The present northern edge of the EASM (Figure 3), characterized on the basis of CMAP precipitation data , shows a northeast-southwest trend similar to that in the preindustrial period, but its location migrates significantly southeastward compared with the preindustrial period. This is related to the southward displacement of the monsoon rainbelt observed during the last few decades due to the weakening of the EASM since the 1970s (Chase et al, 2003;Dai et al, 2012;Wang, 2001;Zhu et al, 2012). An additional cause is the summer "wet biases" over northern China in most of the coupled GCMs (Song & Zhou, 2014).…”

Section: The Northern Edge Of the Easm In The Mid-pliocenementioning

confidence: 99%

Northwestward Migration of the Northern Edge of the East Asian Summer Monsoon During the Mid‐Pliocene Warm Period: Simulations and Reconstructions

et al. 2019

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The mid‐Pliocene (~3.3–3.0 Ma) was the most recent warm interval during which atmospheric CO2 concentrations were similar to the present level of ~400 ppmv. Therefore, it is often regarded as an analog for a near‐future climate scenario. To examine the behavior of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) during the mid‐Pliocene warm period, the northern edge of the EASM, a sensitive indicator of the advance and retreat of the summer monsoon rainbelt, was analyzed using the output of the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 1. The results show a ~150‐km‐northwestward migration of the northern edge of the EASM during the mid‐Pliocene compared to the preindustrial period, which is consistent with that derived from a comparison of geological records and modern observations. However, the geological records indicate a greater east‐west climatic contrast during the Pliocene than at present, which requires investigation in future modeling studies. The simulations also show a substantial increase in the large‐scale land‐sea thermal contrast between the East Asian mainland and the equatorial western Pacific during the interval of mid‐Pliocene warmth. This led to the intensification and westward extension of the western Pacific subtropical high, causing a northwestward shift of the EASM and the resulting mitigation of drought in northern China. We suggest that global warming will shift the EASM northwestward mainly via changes in the position and intensity of the western Pacific subtropical high; this requires systematic studies in the future based on meteorological observations and simulations.

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Cited by 68 publications

References 63 publications

Large‐scale circulation features in the tropical western Pacific and their representation in climate models

Large‐scale circulation features in the tropical western Pacific and their representation in climate models

Bayesian space–time model to analyse frost risk for agriculture in Southeast Australia

Northwestward Migration of the Northern Edge of the East Asian Summer Monsoon During the Mid‐Pliocene Warm Period: Simulations and Reconstructions

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