A 20th century acceleration in global sea‐level rise

Church, John A.; White, Neil J.

doi:10.1029/2005gl024826

Cited by 1,456 publications

(1,100 citation statements)

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“…As a further test of the effectiveness of the EOFs to represent the interannual variability in GMSL, we computed EOFs using shorter periods of 9 and 12 years, similar to our earlier analyses (Church et al 2004;Church and White 2006). The resulting estimates are well within the uncertainties.…”

Section: Sensitivity Of the Resultsmentioning

confidence: 76%

“…The number of locations with sea-level data available for the reconstruction is larger than in our earlier 2004 (Church et al 2004) and 2006 (Church and White 2006) studies, particularly prior to 1900 (Fig. 1).…”

Section: In Situ Sea-level Datamentioning

confidence: 64%

“…Church and White (2006) used the first differences between sets of nearby sea-level records to compute an average error estimate of the first differences of 50 mm and assumed errors were independent of and between locations (i.e. the error covariance matrix was diagonal).…”

Section: Sensitivity Of the Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In the original (Church et al 2004;Church and White 2006) reconstructions, the EOFs were defined with the 9 and 12 years (respectively) of TOPEX/Poseidon and Jason-1 satellite altimeter data available at those times. There are now 17 years of monthly satellite altimeter data available, almost twice as long as the original series.…”

Section: Computation Of Eofsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Sea-Level Rise from the Late 19th to the Early 21st Century

Church¹,

White²

2011

The Earth's Cryosphere and Sea Level Change

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We estimate the rise in global average sea level from satellite altimeter data for 1993-2009 and from coastal and island sea-level measurements from 1880 to 2009 . For 1993-2009 and after correcting for glacial isostatic adjustment, the estimated rate of rise is 3.2 ± 0.4 mm year -1 from the satellite data and 2.8 ± 0.8 mm year -1 from the in situ data. The global average sea-level rise from 1880 to 2009 is about 210 mm. The linear trend from 1900 to 2009 is 1.7 ± 0.2 mm year -1 and since 1961 is 1.9 ± 0.4 mm year -1 . There is considerable variability in the rate of rise during the twentieth century but there has been a statistically significant acceleration since 1880 and 1900 of 0.009 ± 0.003 mm year -2 and 0.009 ± 0.004 mm year -2 , respectively. Since the start of the altimeter record in 1993, global average sea level rose at a rate near the upper end of the sea level projections of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Third and Fourth Assessment Reports. However, the reconstruction indicates there was little net change in sea level from 1990 to 1993, most likely as a result of the volcanic eruption of Mount Pinatubo in 1991.

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Section: Sensitivity Of the Resultsmentioning

confidence: 76%

Section: In Situ Sea-level Datamentioning

confidence: 64%

Section: Sensitivity Of the Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Computation Of Eofsmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Sea-Level Rise from the Late 19th to the Early 21st Century

Church¹,

White²

2011

The Earth's Cryosphere and Sea Level Change

Self Cite

330

496

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“…Observations of a climate transition include a rapid retreat of summer sea ice in the Arctic Ocean (Johannessen 2008), retreat of mountain glaciers around the world (IPCC 2007a), loss of mass from the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets (Cazenave 2006), an increased rate of sea-level rise in the last 10-15 years (Church and White 2006), a four-degree latitude pole-ward shift of subtropical regions (Seidel and Randel 2006), increased bleaching and mortality in coral reefs (Bellwood et al 2004;Stone 2007), a rise in the number of large floods (Milly et al 2002;MEA 2005a), and the activation of slow feedback processes like the weakening of the oceanic carbon sink (Le ).…”

Section: Climate Changementioning

confidence: 99%

A safe operating space for humanity

Rockström

Steffen

Noone

et al. 2009

Nature

9,635

5,320

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The article presents a study that investigates on the importance of identifying and quantifying planetary boundaries to prevent human activities in affecting environmental condition. The author states the industrial revolution and advancement in human civilization has caused the unstability of the environmental state that is less conducive for humans to live and affect their health condition. The author notes that planetary boundaries served a control variables to secure the safety of its citizen as well as protect the environment from shifting to dangerous levels. It also cites the different planetary boundaries, along with its impact on climate change and Earth system degradation

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A geological perspective on sea‐level rise and its impacts along the U.S. mid‐Atlantic coast

et al. 2013

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We evaluate paleo-, historical, and future sea-level rise along the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast.The rate of relative sea-level rise in New Jersey decreased from 3.5 ± 1.0 mm/yr at 7.5-6.5 ka, to 2.2 ± 0.8 mm/yr at 5.5-4.5 ka to a minimum of 0.9 ± 0.4 mm/yr at 3.3-2.3 ka. Relative sea level rose at a rate of 1.6 ± 0.1 mm/yr from 2.2 to 1.2 ka (750 Common Era [CE]) and 1.4 ± 0.1 mm/yr from 800 to 1800 CE. Geological and tide-gauge data show that sea-level rise was more rapid throughout the region since the Industrial Revolution (19th century = 2.7 ± 0.4 mm/yr; 20th century = 3.8 ± 0.2 mm/yr). There is a 95% probability that the 20th century rate of sea-level rise was faster than it was in any century in the last 4.3 kyr. These records reflect global rise (∼1.7 ± 0.2 mm/yr since 1880 CE) and subsidence from glacio-isostatic adjustment (∼1.3 ± 0.4 mm/yr) at bedrock locations (e.g., New York City). At coastal plain locations, the rate of rise is 0.3-1.3 mm/yr higher due to groundwater withdrawal and compaction. We construct 21st century relative sea-level rise scenarios including global, regional, and local processes. We project a 22 cm rise at bedrock locations by 2030 (central scenario; low-and high-end scenarios range of 16-38 cm), 40 cm by 2050 (range 28-65 cm), and 96 cm by 2100 (range 66-168 cm), with coastal plain locations having higher rises (3, 5-6, and 10-12 cm higher, respectively). By 2050 CE in the central scenario, a storm with a 10 year recurrence interval will exceed all historic storms at Atlantic City.Summary An analysis of geological and historical sea-level records shows a significant rate of increase in sea-level rise since the nineteenth century. In New Jersey, it is extremely likely that sea-level rise in the twentieth century was faster than during any other century in the last 4.3 thousand years. Accounting for regional and local factors, the authors project sea-level rise in the mid-Atlantic U.S. most likely about 38-42 ′′ (96-106 cm) over the twentieth century, but possibly as high as 66-71 ′′ (168-180 cm).

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A 20th century acceleration in global sea‐level rise

Cited by 1,456 publications

References 28 publications

Sea-Level Rise from the Late 19th to the Early 21st Century

Sea-Level Rise from the Late 19th to the Early 21st Century

A safe operating space for humanity

A geological perspective on sea‐level rise and its impacts along the U.S. mid‐Atlantic coast

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