A 21st Century Warming Threshold for Sustained Greenland Ice Sheet Mass Loss

Noël, Brice; Kampenhout, Leo van; Lenaerts, Jan T. M.; Berg, Willem Jan van de; Broeke, M. R. van den

doi:10.1029/2020gl090471

Cited by 42 publications

(30 citation statements)

References 53 publications

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“…The radiative scheme of MARv3.11 has been adapted to prescribe the GHG concentrations and the solar constant time series which have been used to constrain CNRM-ESM2-1. We refer to Kravitz et al (2015) and O'Neill et al (2016) for the description of the SSP scenarios used here and to Fettweis et al (2020) for the MAR presentation and evaluation.…”

Section: Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…2.2) over the GrIS. This G6solar experiment assumes a continuously decreasing solar constant from 2015 until it reaches −1.5 % in 2100 and has been designed to mimic the global warming signal seen in the SSP245 scenario (a scenario with ∼ 4.5 W/m 2 total forcing in 2100), despite SSP585 GHG emissions (∼ 8.5 W/m 2 in 2100, O'Neill et al, 2016) being assumed. This setup enables us to study in Sect.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Brief communication: Reduction in the future Greenland ice sheet surface melt with the help of solar geoengineering

et al. 2021

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Abstract. The Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) will be losing mass at an accelerating pace throughout the 21st century, with a direct link between anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and the magnitude of Greenland mass loss. Currently, approximately 60 % of the mass loss contribution comes from surface melt and subsequent meltwater runoff, while 40 % are due to ice calving. In the ablation zone covered by bare ice in summer, most of the surface melt energy is provided by absorbed shortwave fluxes, which could be reduced by solar geoengineering measures. However, so far very little is known about the potential impacts of an artificial reduction in the incoming solar radiation on the GrIS surface energy budget and the subsequent change in meltwater production. By forcing the regional climate model MAR with the latest CMIP6 shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) future emission scenarios (SSP245, SSP585) and associated G6solar experiment from the CNRM-ESM2-1 Earth system model, we estimate the local impact of a reduced solar constant on the projected GrIS surface mass balance (SMB) decrease. Overall, our results show that even in the case of a low-mitigation greenhouse gas emissions scenario (SSP585), the Greenland surface mass loss can be brought in line with the medium-mitigation emissions scenario (SSP245) by reducing the solar downward flux at the top of the atmosphere by ∼ 40 W/m2 or ∼ 1.5 % (using the G6solar experiment). In addition to reducing global warming in line with SSP245, G6solar also decreases the efficiency of surface meltwater production over the Greenland ice sheet by damping the well-known positive melt–albedo feedback. With respect to a MAR simulation where the solar constant remains unchanged, decreasing the solar constant according to G6solar in the MAR radiative scheme mitigates the projected Greenland ice sheet surface melt increase by 6 %. However, only more constraining geoengineering experiments than G6solar would allow us to maintain a positive SMB until the end of this century without any reduction in our greenhouse gas emissions.

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Section: Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Brief communication: Reduction in the future Greenland ice sheet surface melt with the help of solar geoengineering

et al. 2021

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“…This was another reason to select the SW drainage system as the test area. In our study, we combine the SMB trend estimate from the RACMO2.3p2 model, which offers a 1-km spatial resolution at the daily temporal scale (Noël et al, 2021), and the ice discharge estimate from King et al (2020). The SMB trend in SW over January 2003 to July 2016 is −20 Gt/yr, whereas the ice discharge over the same time interval is 12 Gt/yr.…”

Section: Validationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis and Mitigation of Biases in Greenland Ice Sheet Mass Balance Trend Estimates From GRACE Mascon Products

et al. 2021

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The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission, which was launched in 2002, allowed mass anomalies at the global and regional scale to be estimated until June 2017 (Tapley et al., 2004(Tapley et al., , 2019. Those estimates have become one of the most valuable data sources being used to understand mass transport in the Earth system. Several research areas benefit from this information, including hydrology (e.g.

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“…As highlighted in the last three assessment reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (IPCC, 2007(IPCC, , 2013(IPCC, , 2021 and the Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (BR001), the main uncertainty in projections of future SLR is the limited ability to model the future melt dynamics of the AIS and GrIS. Uncertainty quantification is further complicated by the fact that both ice sheets have been estimated to have tipping points at, or slightly above, 1.5-2.0 • C warming compared to the preindustrial epoch (Pattyn et al, 2018;Pattyn and Morlighem, 2020;Noël et al, 2021). Crossing these tipping points might lead to self-sustained demise of large parts of both ice sheets with a multi-meter contribution to SLR within a couple of centuries as a consequence.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sea-Level Rise: From Global Perspectives to Local Services

Durand

Broeke²,

Cozannet³

et al. 2022

Front. Mar. Sci.

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Coastal areas are highly diverse, ecologically rich, regions of key socio-economic activity, and are particularly sensitive to sea-level change. Over most of the 20th century, global mean sea level has risen mainly due to warming and subsequent expansion of the upper ocean layers as well as the melting of glaciers and ice caps. Over the last three decades, increased mass loss of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets has also started to contribute significantly to contemporary sea-level rise. The future mass loss of the two ice sheets, which combined represent a sea-level rise potential of ∼65 m, constitutes the main source of uncertainty in long-term (centennial to millennial) sea-level rise projections. Improved knowledge of the magnitude and rate of future sea-level change is therefore of utmost importance. Moreover, sea level does not change uniformly across the globe and can differ greatly at both regional and local scales. The most appropriate and feasible sea level mitigation and adaptation measures in coastal regions strongly depend on local land use and associated risk aversion. Here, we advocate that addressing the problem of future sea-level rise and its impacts requires (i) bringing together a transdisciplinary scientific community, from climate and cryospheric scientists to coastal impact specialists, and (ii) interacting closely and iteratively with users and local stakeholders to co-design and co-build coastal climate services, including addressing the high-end risks.

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A 21st Century Warming Threshold for Sustained Greenland Ice Sheet Mass Loss

Cited by 42 publications

References 53 publications

Brief communication: Reduction in the future Greenland ice sheet surface melt with the help of solar geoengineering

Brief communication: Reduction in the future Greenland ice sheet surface melt with the help of solar geoengineering

Analysis and Mitigation of Biases in Greenland Ice Sheet Mass Balance Trend Estimates From GRACE Mascon Products

Sea-Level Rise: From Global Perspectives to Local Services

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