A Bayesian network model for evacuation time analysis during a ship fire

Sarshar, Parvaneh; Radianti, Jaziar; Granmo, Ole‐Christoffer; González, José J.

doi:10.1109/cidue.2013.6595778

Cited by 16 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 12 publications

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“…Inference on the Bayesian Network is a calculation to determine the class probability of an event based on existing structure and CPT. Inference on the Bayesian Network uses the basis of Bayes's theorem describing the probability of two events such as in (7) which describes the probability of event X with the condition that event Y occurs first (Sarshar, Granmo, Radianti, & Gonzalez, 2013).…”

Section: E Inference Bayesian Networkmentioning

confidence: 99%

Price Prediction of Chili Commodities in Bandung Regency Using Bayesian Network

Nuvaisiyah

Nhita

Saepudin

2019

ijoict

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Chili is one of the agricultural commodities consumed by Indonesian people. Market data in recent years show that chili prices tend to fluctuate as supply and demand changes. One of the impacts of chili price changes for farmers is the production cost is higher than the selling price. In addition to supply and demand changes, the weather is also indicated as a factor of price changes due to the weather being considered by farmers to grow chili. Price prediction is needed to determine the condition of chili prices in the future to help farmers in making decisions to plant at the right time. One method that can be used to make prediction is Data Mining classification method. In this paper, Bayesian network algorithm was used as Data Mining classification method to predict the price of chili commodity in Bandung Regency based on weather information and classified the price into economic class and not economic class. The result shows that the prediction model obtained by the Bayesian Network gives a system’s performance for precision and recall that is 1 and 0.94 respectively with average accuracy of 85.5% in classifying the price.

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Section: E Inference Bayesian Networkmentioning

confidence: 99%

Price Prediction of Chili Commodities in Bandung Regency Using Bayesian Network

Nuvaisiyah

Nhita

Saepudin

2019

ijoict

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“…Useful explanations of how to use the GeNIe software can be found in the manual provided by the developer and also by the authors of an evacuation time analysis of ships using BN (Sarshar et al, 2013).…”

Section: Software Usedmentioning

confidence: 99%

Human reliability analysis—accounting for human actions and external factors through the project life cycle

Morais¹,

Moura²,

Beer³

et al. 2018

Safety and Reliability – Safe Societies in a Changing World

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Airplanes, ships, nuclear power plants and chemical production plants (including oil & gas facilities) are examples of industries that depend upon the interaction between operators and machines. Consequently, to assess the risks of those systems, not only the reliability of the technological components has to be accounted for, but also the 'human model'. For this reason, engineers have been working together with psychologists and sociologists to understand cognitive functions and how the organisational context influences individual actions. Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) identifies and analyses the causes, consequences and contributions of human performance (including failures) in complex sociotechnical systems. Generally, HRA research is concentrated in modelling workers' performance in the "sharp-end", assessing the ones directly involved in handling the system, especially operators. However, in theory, a reliability analysis can be applied to any kind of human action, including those from designers and managers. This research will evaluate a way of conducting HRA in the design process, as previous research has demonstrated that design failure is the predominant contributor to human errors (Moura et al., 2016). Bayesian Network (BN)-a systematic way of learning from experience and incorporating new evidence (deterministic or probabilistic)-is proposed to model the complex relationships within cognitive functions, organisational and technological factors. Conditional probability tables have been obtained from a dataset of major accidents from different industry sectors (Moura et al. 2017), using a classification scheme developed by Hollnagel (1998) for an HRA method called CREAM-Cognitive Reliability and Error Analysis Method. The model allows to infer which factors most influence human performance in different scenarios. Also, we will discuss if the model can be applied to any human actions through the project life cyclesince the design phase to the operational phase, including their management. The expected results of such study can be either qualitative or quantitative, depending on the industry sector best practice, data availability and regulatory requirements. Quantitative results for HRA means giving the human performance a number, a probability of occurrence-the so-called Human Error Probability (HEP). This gives decision-makers the

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“…Bazı araştırmalarda ise yolcu tahliye rotalarının optimizasyonu üzerinde durulmuştur [12,13,14,15,16,17]. Gemilerde acil durum yolcu tahliyesi ile yayınların önemli bir kısmı benzetim yöntemini kullanmıştır.…”

Section: Literatür İncelemesiunclassified

A Simulation Aided Methodology Suggestion for Managing Emergency Evacuation Operation Under Engine Room Sourced Fire Conditions

Sarvari¹,

Çevikcan²,

Çelik³

et al. 2017

J ETA Maritime Sci

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Öz A Simulation Aided Methodology Suggestion for Managing Emergency Evacuation Operation Under Engine Room Sourced Fire Conditions Abstract More crowded groups of people gathers in passenger ships as a result of increasing demand and variety of navigation. Supporting marine emergency evacuation via effective planning has a vital importance for passengers and crew. The objective of the study is to provide contribution for performing evacuation in a safeTo cite this article: Sarvari, P. A., Çevikcan, E., Çelik, M. and Üstündağ, A. (2017). Hızlı feribotlarda makine dairesi kaynaklı yangın koşullarında tahliye operasyonunun yönetimine yönelik benzetim destekli metodoloji önerisi.

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A Bayesian network model for evacuation time analysis during a ship fire

Cited by 16 publications

References 12 publications

Price Prediction of Chili Commodities in Bandung Regency Using Bayesian Network

Price Prediction of Chili Commodities in Bandung Regency Using Bayesian Network

Human reliability analysis—accounting for human actions and external factors through the project life cycle

A Simulation Aided Methodology Suggestion for Managing Emergency Evacuation Operation Under Engine Room Sourced Fire Conditions

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