A benefit-cost assessment of new vehicle technologies and fuel economy in the U.S. market

Abstract

Increasingly stringent fuel economy and emissions regulations alongside efforts to reduce oil dependence have accelerated the global deployment of advanced vehicle technologies. In recent years, original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and consumers have generally been successful in mutually deploying cleaner vehicle options with little sacrifice in cost, performance or overall utility. Projections regarding the challenges and impacts associated with compliance with mid-and long-term targets in the U.S., however, incur much greater uncertainty. The share of existing new vehicles that is expected to comply with future regulations, for example, falls below 10% by 2020. This article explores advanced technologies that result in reduced fuel consumption and emissions that are commercially available in 2014 Model Year compact and midsize passenger cars. A review of the recent research literature and publicly available cost and technical specification data addressing correlations between incremental cost and fuel economy is presented. This analysis reveals that a 10% improvement in the sales-weighted average fuel economy of passenger cars has been achieved between 2011 and 2014 at costs that are at or below levels anticipated by the regulations by means of reductions in weight, friction, and drag; advancements in internal combustion efficiency; turbocharging combined with engine downsizing; transmission upgrades; and the growth of hybrids. Benefit-cost analyses performed on best-selling models in the selected classifications reveal that consumers thus far are not substantially incentivized to purchase fuel economy. Under baseline conditions, benefit-cost ratios are above a breakeven value of unity for only 6 of 28 models employing improved fuel-economy technologies. Sales-weighted data indicate that the "average" consumer that elected to invest in greater fuel economy spent $1490 to realize a 17.3% improvement in fuel economy, equating to estimated savings of $1070. Thus savings were, on average, insufficient to cover technology costs in the baseline scenario. However, a sensitivity analysis reveals that a majority of new technologies become financially attractive to consumers when average fuel prices exceed $5.60/gallon, or when annual miles travelled exceed 16,400. The article concludes with techno-economic implications of the research on future fuel economy regulations for stakeholders. In general, the additional cost consumers incur in exchange for a given level of fuel economy improvement in the coming years will need to be steadily reduced compared to current levels to ensure that the expected benefits of fuel savings are financially warranted.

Case Studies of Statistical Analysis in Engineering

“…With more and more emphasis on curbing energy consumption and the consequent greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in modern societies, this study used statistical analysis to support housing downsizing (moving to a smaller dwelling) as a proposed method for reducing annual residential energy consumption (in MW-h). Downsizing of equipment (e.g., heaters and air conditioning units [6] and even automobile engines [7]) to save energy has already received earlier attention, whereas engineers should realize more the energy saving due to smaller living spaces and avoiding under-occupancy. The total sample size was N = 991 households which represent part of the 2011 Energy Follow-Up Survey (EFUS) by the British Department of Energy and Climate Change, and the 2011/2012 English Housing Survey (EHS).…”

Difusão da inovação ambiental na tecnologia de propulsão automotiva para mitigar emissões de Gases de Efeito Estufa - GEE

“…Este cenário exigirá uma ampla difusão tecnológica, e as atuais soluções que apresentam a melhor relação custo-benefício, naquele mercado, são os veículos de alta eficiência, e as tecnologias deste grupo são: turbo com downsizing, híbrido e transmissão CVT. Além destas tecnologias com melhor retorno econômico, outras também são aplicadas para a redução das emissões, como o comando de válvulas variável (VVT) e injeção direta (SIMMONS et al, 2015). Segundo a análise de Oshiro e Masui (2015), a difusão de tecnologias de veículos elétricos a bateria, células de combustível, híbridos, híbridos plug-in e veículos de alta eficiência permite o ajuste na matriz energética para atingir a meta de redução de GEE do Japão em 80% das emissões até 2050, em relação a 1990.…”

“…Segundo medição feita pela Agência de Proteção Ambiental dos Estados Unidos (EPA), a redução do peso em 10% de um veículo a gasolina pode atingir economia de combustível por volta de 6 a 7% (PLOTKIN, 2009). A redução de peso pode ser obtida por meio da substituição do material de alguns componentes, como, por exemplo, o uso de rodas de liga, e substituição da roda sobressalente por kit de reparo (depende da legislação do país); estes são alguns exemplos de mudanças para a redução de peso (SIMMONS et al, 2015).…”

“…Segundo Simmons et al(2015), o mercado automotivo dos Estado Unidos tem atuado na melhoria da eficiência por meio de transformação tecnológica visando a redução do consumo de combustível. Com a nova fase do CAFE, novas soluções foram implementadas na frota, visando atender não somente à legislação, mas também às exigências do mercado.…”

“…Os consumidores que investiram, em média, US$ 1.490 em tecnologias para o aumento da eficiência energética tiveram uma melhora na economia de combustível na faixa de 17,3%. Para os usuários com média anual de rodagem elevada, as tecnologias que oferecem o melhor benefício econômico são o turbo com downsizing e o híbrido normal (SIMMONS et al, 2015). Diante dos desafios para o mercado dos EUA no período de 2017 a 2025, será exigida a difusão de diversas tecnologias atualmente conhecidas, de forma a cumprir a meta de eficiência energética estabelecida.…”