A biometeorology study of climate and heat-related morbidity in Phoenix from 2001 to 2006

Golden, Jay S.; Hartz, Donna A.; Brazel, Anthony J.; Luber, George; Phelan, Patrick E.

doi:10.1007/s00484-007-0142-3

Cited by 106 publications

(64 citation statements)

References 17 publications

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“…Detrimental impacts can be further expanded to athletic performance, work and behaviour [2]. Many studies have specifically noted that urban dwellers show overall decreased health and functionality in everyday life [3], and also higher heat related mortality [4,5]. Through the use of accurate TC models applied to bioclimatic urban design, improvement of outdoor spaces more conducive to recreational activities can be achieved.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling skin temperature of a human exercising in an outdoor environment

Vanos

Warland

Kenny

et al. 2010

WIT Transactions on Ecology and the Environment

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Skin temperature monitoring is an important component when estimating thermoregulatory responses due to heat exchange at the skin surface. The aim of this study is to improve the accuracy of mean skin temperature (T sk ) predictions in human thermal comfort models, specifically the COMFA (COMfort FormulA) outdoor model, in order to reduce errors in energy budget estimates associated with T sk . Field tests were conducted on 12 subjects performing 30 minutes of steadystate physical activity (running or cycling) on two separate occasions. The predicted thermal sensations (PTS) from the COMFA budget model using both actual (measured) and predicted (with model)T sk were compared at 5-minute intervals.Results indicate that the model over-predictedT sk throughout the exercise period. The root mean square error (RMSE) ofT sk of subjects running was larger than cycling, and increased throughout the 30 minute exercise session; hence, the model was less able to accurately predictT sk as metabolic activity increased. The Spearman's correlation coefficients (r s ) for actual thermal sensation (ATS) with both actual and predictedT sk thermal sensation scores were low, (r s =0.315 and 0.285, respectively). However, ATS votes correlated more strongly with predicted thermal sensation (PTS) scores in running tests. Added psychological and physiological variables when exercising outdoors make it inherently difficult to apply current thermal comfort (TC) models to exercising subjects. There is need for further studies regarding prediction of overall TC while exercising outdoors for use in urban design and planning, as well as adapting models to specific types of exercise.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling skin temperature of a human exercising in an outdoor environment

Vanos

Warland

Kenny

et al. 2010

WIT Transactions on Ecology and the Environment

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“…3. Statistically, as presented by Golden et al (2008) these indicate that either 24-h maximum temperature or 24-h average heat index has the strongest correlation to calls for service during this time frame.…”

Section: Correlation Analysis and Extended Validationmentioning

confidence: 82%

Modeling effects of urban heat island mitigation strategies on heat-related morbidity: a case study for Phoenix, Arizona, USA

2009

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A zero-dimensional energy balance model was previously developed to serve as a user-friendly mitigation tool for practitioners seeking to study the urban heat island (UHI) effect. Accordingly, this established model is applied here to show the relative effects of four common mitigation strategies: increasing the overall (1) emissivity, (2) percentage of vegetated area, (3) thermal conductivity, and (4) albedo of the urban environment in a series of percentage increases by 5, 10, 15, and 20% from baseline values. In addition to modeling mitigation strategies, we present how the model can be utilized to evaluate human health vulnerability from excessive heat-related events, based on heat-related emergency service data from 2002 to 2006. The 24-h average heat index is shown to have the greatest correlation to heat-related emergency calls in the Phoenix (Arizona, USA) metropolitan region. The four modeled UHI mitigation strategies, taken in combination, would lead to a 48% reduction in annual heat-related emergency service calls, where increasing the albedo is the single most effective UHI mitigation strategy.

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“…One study in Phoenix, AZ found a lag of only three hours in heat-related morbidity (Golden et al, 2015), thus current day ambulance calls (a measure of morbidity) were used in this study.…”

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

The relationship between neighbourhood tree canopy cover and heat-related ambulance calls during extreme heat events in Toronto, Canada

Graham

Vanos

Kenny

et al. 2016

Urban Forestry & Urban Greening

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The relationship between neighbourhood tree canopy cover and heat-related ambulance calls during extreme heat events in Toronto, Canada Two thirds of Canadians reside in urban areas and 85% of recent population growth occurs in these areas. The intensity and duration of extreme hot weather events are predicted to increase in Canadian cities and in cities globally. It is well established that human suffering due to extreme heat is exacerbated in urban as compared to rural environments. Understanding the characteristics of urban landscapes that play the greatest roles in exacerbating the human health impact of extreme heat is thus imperative. This study explores the relationship between the amount of canopy cover from trees and the incidence of heat-related morbidity during extreme heat events in 544 neighbourhoods of Toronto, Ontario, Canada. Four extreme heat events from three years were studied. Heat-related ambulance calls were found to be 12.3% higher during the heat events than in the preceding or the following week. The number of heat-related ambulance calls was negatively correlated to canopy cover (Spearman Rank rho = −0.094, p = 0.029) and positively correlated to hard surface cover (Spearman Rank rho = 0.150, p < 0.001). Toronto neighbourhoods, as defined by Census Tracts, with less than 5% canopy cover had approximately five times as many heat-related calls as those with greater than 5% tree canopy cover, and nearly fifteen times as many heat-related calls as Census Tracts with greater than 70% tree canopy cover. These data suggest that even a marginal increase in the tree canopy cover from <5% to >5% could reduce heat-related ambulance calls by approximately 80%. These results have important implications for human health during heat events, particularly in the context of global climate change and urban heat islands, both of which are trending toward hotter urban environments in future.

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A biometeorology study of climate and heat-related morbidity in Phoenix from 2001 to 2006

Cited by 106 publications

References 17 publications

Modelling skin temperature of a human exercising in an outdoor environment

Modelling skin temperature of a human exercising in an outdoor environment

Modeling effects of urban heat island mitigation strategies on heat-related morbidity: a case study for Phoenix, Arizona, USA

The relationship between neighbourhood tree canopy cover and heat-related ambulance calls during extreme heat events in Toronto, Canada

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