A call for agile futures practice in service of transformative change: lessons from envisioning positive climate futures emerging from the pandemic

Abstract

Amid growing urgency behind the need to curb global greenhouse gas emissions, the COVID-19 pandemic has thrown the world into another crisis. Prominent conceptualizations of transformation suggest that crises like the pandemic may create windows of opportunity for transformative change, such as the scope and scale of systemic change required to address the climate crisis. Additionally, envisioning positive futures plays an important role in building shared commitment and inspiration for transformation, particularly if conducted in transformative spaces where actors with diverse framings and vulnerabilities can experiment with new practices and ideas. Emerging research demonstrates the potential for experimental futures methods to create such transformative spaces. In this study, we aimed to create a transformative space that builds inspiration and shared commitment for climate action while exploring the unique inflection point created by the COVID-19 pandemic. To do so, we constructed a highly creative participatory futuring process for participants involved in climate action in the Kitchener-Waterloo Region (Canada) to imagine desirable futures emerging from the crisis. Because we needed to move quickly and accommodate pandemic-related constraints to explore this unique moment in time, we also aimed to reflect on considerations for an agile futures practice in service of transformative change. Through a virtual workshop and surveys, participants envisioned future worlds in which local "seeds" of positive climate futures emerging during COVID-19 become mainstream. They also wrote science fiction stories of characters navigating those worlds. Observing artists depicted the futures through visual art. Reflections on our experience facilitating the process generated five considerations for a more agile futures practice in service of transformative change: adapt the ideal process to context-specific opportunities and constraints, align with strategic partners while ensuring everyone is in the room, underpin the process with values, treat everyone's contributions as knowledge, and contextualize the role of inspiration as an outcome.

Recipe for a scenario: Moving from vision to actionable pathways towards sustainable futures

“…When coupled with modelling techniques, it can be used to elicit drivers of changes and enrich the development of models (Schmitt Olabisi et al 2016; Allington et al 2018; Rutting et al 2021). Finally, participatory scenario planning can foster transformative change through the creation of strategies to navigate crises and achieve desirable futures (Hebinck et al 2018; Lazurko and Keys 2022).…”

“…Due to its focus on recognizing systemic patterns with the goal of working towards transformative change, it is often of special interest to scholars studying human-environment systems. For instance, it has been utilized to envision future knowledge systems to support action towards sustainability (Fazey et al 2020), co-design global scenarios to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (Aguiar et al 2020), co-creation of positive climate futures that could emerge after COVID19 (Lazurko and Keys 2022), and co-production of pathways towards desirable futures associated with storytelling and visual arts (Schaal et al 2023). Three Horizons can also be incorporated into broader processes to facilitate specific activities (e.g., the Manoa Mashup Method as described by Pereira et al (2018) and Hichert, Biggs and Preiser (2019)).…”

“…We acknowledge that transformations are complex, but also recognize that our workbook tool can be a helpful component in the process of navigating change. Finally, our tool is aligned with the perspective of a more agile futures practice that is less time- and resource-intensive for both researchers and stakeholders (Lazurko and Keys 2022).…”

“…Furthermore, many scenario processes are designed as multi-day events that require experts on multiple methods and professional facilitators. We argue that half or one day workshops can incorporate individual participants who might want to participate but cannot include this as part of their job, which is a necessary option for a more diverse and agile future practice (Lazurko and Keys 2022).…”

Transformative foresight for diverse futures: the Seeds of Good Anthropocenes initiative

“…In addition, interactions between quantitative specialists and those with an arts-based focus could inspire a more imaginative approach to policy formulation. Techniques such as science fiction prototyping and artistic integration may both invigorate the policy-making process and contribute to crafting policies that are both innovative and inclusive of diverse viewpoints (Lazurko & Keys, 2022;Pereira et al, 2023). These suggestions point towards a model where the arts and sciences collaborate, potentially leading to policies better equipped to address complex future challenges and cater to varied stakeholder interests.…”