Introduction: The COVID-19 pandemic has affected the world for more than a year, with multiple waves of
infections resulting in morbidity, mortality and disruption to the economy and society. Response measures
employed to control it have generally been effective but are unlikely to be sustainable over the long term.
Methods: We examined the evidence for a vaccine-driven COVID-19 exit strategy including academic
papers, governmental reports and epidemiological data, and discuss the shift from the current pandemic
footing to an endemic approach similar to influenza and other re spiratory infectious diseases.
Results: A desired endemic state is characterised by a baseline prevalence of infections with a generally mild
disease profile that can be sustainably managed by the healthcare system, together with the resumption of
near normalcy in human activities. Such an endemic state is attainable for COVID-19 given the promising
data around vaccine efficacy, although uncertainty remains around vaccine immunity escape in emergent
variants of concern. Maintenance of non-pharmaceutical interventions remains crucial until high vaccination
coverage is attained to avoid runaway outbreaks. It may also be worthwhile to de-escalate measures in
phases, before standing down most measures for an endemic state. If a variant that substantially evades
immunity emerges, it will need to be managed akin to a new disease threat, with pandemic preparedness
and response plans.
Conclusion: An endemic state for COVID-19, characterised by sustainable disease control measures, is
likely attainable through vaccination.
Keywords: COVID-19, endemic, non-pharmaceutical interventions, transition, vaccination