A catalogue of caldera unrest at Taupo Volcanic Centre, New Zealand, using the Volcanic Unrest Index (VUI)

Potter, Sally H.; Scott, Bradley J.; Jolly, Gill; Johnston, David; Neall, Vincent E.

doi:10.1007/s00445-015-0956-5

Cited by 32 publications

(44 citation statements)

References 35 publications

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“…The great majority of caldera unrest episodes documented globally do not lead to an eruption, despite potentially dramatic variations in monitoring parameters (e.g., up to meters of ground deformation, coupled with severe seismicity: Chang et al., 2007; Hill, 2006; Tizzani et al., 2009; Troise et al., 2019; Peterson et al., 2020). Due to the reputation of caldera volcanoes as a source of devastating eruptions, however, non‐eruptive unrest episodes themselves can cause significant socio‐economic impacts through uncertainty around possible future activity and triggering of precautionary mitigation efforts (e.g., Barberi et al., 1984; Johnston et al., 2002; Longo, 2019; Maj et al., 1989; Potter, Scott, Jolly, Johnston, & Neall, 2015). Therefore, improving our understanding of the processes that drive volcanic unrest at calderas is not only an important step toward forecasting whether an eruption is likely or imminent (Acocella et al., 2015) but also can greatly strengthen public awareness through scientific communication (Charlton et al., 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Volcanic Unrest at Taupō Volcano in 2019: Causes, Mechanisms and Implications

Illsley‐Kemp

Barker

Wilson

et al. 2021

Geochem Geophys Geosyst

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Taupō volcano, New Zealand, is a large caldera volcano that has been highly active through the Holocene. It most recently erupted ∼1,800 years ago but there have been multiple periods of historic volcanic unrest. We use seismological and geodetic analysis to show that in 2019 Taupō underwent a period of unrest characterized by increased seismic activity through multiple swarms and was accompanied by ground deformation within the caldera. The earthquakes, which include non‐double‐couple events, serve to outline an aseismic zone beneath the most recent eruptive vents. This aseismic zone is coincident with an inflating source, based on forward modeling of ground deformation data. We infer that this aseismic and deforming region delineates the location of the present day magma reservoir that is ≥250 km3 in volume and has a melt fraction of >20%–30%, inhibiting seismic activity. Our analysis shows that the 2019 unrest at Taupō was volcanic in nature and origin, demonstrating that this is an active and potentially hazardous volcano, and that improving our monitoring and understanding of its behavior is important.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Volcanic Unrest at Taupō Volcano in 2019: Causes, Mechanisms and Implications

Illsley‐Kemp

Barker

Wilson

et al. 2021

Geochem Geophys Geosyst

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“…The range of hazards they produce is similar to that from unrest at volcanoes in general. However, whereas general volcanic unrest commonly occurs for months or less, unrest at large calderas can continue for years or more (Phillipson et al 2013;Potter et al 2015;Acocella et al 2015). Even without an eruption, therefore, caldera unrest can significantly disrupt the livelihoods of local residents and regional economies (Barberi et al 1984;Johnston et al 2002;Potter et al 2015;Longo 2019).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Volcanic unrest scenarios and impact assessment at Campi Flegrei caldera, Southern Italy

2020

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At Campi Flegrei caldera, volcanic unrest hazards during 1982-1984 caused significant building damage and led to the evacuation of over 40,000 residents in the central town of Pozzuoli. Past hazard assessments in this region have focused on eruption hazards rather than on hazards from volcanic unrest. In this study, we developed a hypothetical unrest hazard scenario applied to three locations within Campi Flegrei caldera: Pozzuoli, Agnano and Baia. We also collated GIS exposure datasets and used vulnerability models of building and road damage to carry out an impact assessment for future volcanic unrest at these three test locations. The resulting impact maps provide useful insight into the effects future unrest could have on businesses, buildings and livelihoods within Campi Flegrei. The impact maps show that, depending on the location of unrest, evacuations associated with future unrest may involve displacement of large numbers of residents, and significant damage to buildings and infrastructure. The Agnano scenario is associated with the greatest impact and involves the potential evacuation of 136,000 people and damage to about 2400 buildings, with up to 200 km of roads and 17 km of high-voltage electricity network also exposed. Agnano also lies between Naples and the rest of Campi Flegrei, so that damage to infrastructure may trigger a cascade of obstacles to managing evacuations and repairs during an emergency. The results highlight how a simple impact assessment can be used to explore the possible effects of future unrest hazard, and the importance of considering scenarios in which renewed ground uplift is not necessarily focused beneath Pozzuoli.

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“…6 6 .7 Hart and Steen-McIntyre, 1983;Dull et al, 2001;Kutterolf et al, 2008 Taupo, New Zealand ca. CE 233~8 × 12~100 km 3 bulk volume including coignimbrite ash 6 6.9 W ilson, 1985; Wilson and Walker, 1985;Davy and Caldwell, 1998;Potter et al, 2015 Ambrym, Vanuatu ca. CE 50 ± 100 13 Based on caldera reconstruction by McCall et al (1970), we estimate an approximate volume of collapse of 70 km 3 ; minimum estimate based on deposits (Robin et al, 1993): 70 ± 10 km 3 bulk volume and >20 km 3 DRE 6 6 .8 McCall et al, 1970;Robin et al, 1993;Németh and Cronin, 2008;Sheehan, 2016 Iwo-Jima, Japan ca.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Anticipating future Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) 7 eruptions and their chilling impacts

Newhall¹,

Self

Robock

2018

Geosphere

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Worst-case or high-end subduction-related earthquakes and tsunamis of 2004 and 2011 are painfully fresh in our memories. High-end subductionrelated volcanic eruptions have not occurred in recent memory, so we review historical and geologic evidence about such eruptions that will surely recur within coming centuries. Specifically, we focus on Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) 7 eruptions, which occur 1-2 times per thousand years. A variety of environmental changes followed the VEI 7 eruption of Rinjani (Samalas), Indonesia, in CE 1257 and several more eruptions of VEI 6 or 7 that occurred in the succeeding few centuries. The Rinjani eruption and its impacts are relatively well documented, modeled, and, for the purposes of attribution, uncomplicated by antecedent eruptions. It seems likely that the Rinjani eruption triggered the onset of the Little Ice Age, and subsequent large eruptions sustained it. Although climatic effects of eruptions like Pinatubo (Philippines) and even Tambora (Indonesia) lasted only a few years, it seems that coupling of oceans, sea ice, and atmosphere after larger eruptions can force decade-to century-long cooling, decreased precipitation, and major impacts on crops. The next VEI 7 will affect a world very different from that of CE 1257. Today, populations within 100 km of candidate volcanoes range from fewer than 1000 people in remote areas to between 20 and 30 million people near several candi dates in Indonesia and the Philippines. If a VEI 7 eruption occurs, those populations will be at dire risk, and eruptions in some locations could destabilize financial centers, national economies, and even peace between nations. Distal effects on air travel, the global positioning system, and climate will be felt by a high-technology, globally interdependent world. We suggest and apply criteria to identify candidates for future VEI 7 eruptions, and discuss likely challenges for short-range forecasting of such events. Preparation for such low-probability but high-consequence events is difficult to imagine, yet some modest early measures can be considered. Volcanologists should refine geologic histories and ensure at least baseline monitoring of candidate volcanoes, and consider how they will judge the likelihood that an impending eruption will be of VEI 7. Forward-thinking governments and industries would be wise to consider how a proximal or distal VEI 7 eruption will affect their jurisdictions, and what responses make the most economic and sociopolitical sense. SIZES OF EXPLOSIVE VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS An imperfect but handy measure of explosive magnitude is the VEI (Newhall and Self, 1982), a broadly logarithmic scale similar to Richter magnitude for earthquakes and to a more precise but also more data-demanding magni-GEOSPHERE

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A catalogue of caldera unrest at Taupo Volcanic Centre, New Zealand, using the Volcanic Unrest Index (VUI)

Cited by 32 publications

References 35 publications

Volcanic Unrest at Taupō Volcano in 2019: Causes, Mechanisms and Implications

Volcanic Unrest at Taupō Volcano in 2019: Causes, Mechanisms and Implications

Volcanic unrest scenarios and impact assessment at Campi Flegrei caldera, Southern Italy

Anticipating future Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) 7 eruptions and their chilling impacts

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