A CIA–ISM scenario approach for analyzing complex cascading effects in Operational Risk Management

Huerga, Miguel Ramírez de la; Bañuls, Víctor A.; Turoff, Murray

doi:10.1016/j.engappai.2015.07.016

Cited by 23 publications

(24 citation statements)

References 19 publications

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“…Lyer [10] identified 17 risks encountered during the development stage of public and private projects in India and used ISM to develop a hierarchical structure. Huerga et al [11] applied crossimpact analysis and ISM to analyze the complex cascading effects in operational RM to determine the relationships between different risks and consequences, direct links, indirect links, and cascading effects. Therefore, the ISM method is especially suitable for analyzing the relationships of risk factors in infrastructure projects that have numerous variables, complex relations, and unclear structures [12].…”

Section: State Of the Artmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis on Relationships of Safety Risk Factors in Metro Construction

Xu¹,

Wang²,

Li³

et al. 2016

JESTR

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Accidents in metro construction occur frequently, causing significant economic loss, mass casualties, and adverse social effect. Thus, conducting effective analyses on safety risk factors in metro construction is urgent. Safety risk factors are probably related because of the complexity of metro construction, which is often disregarded in traditional models of risk analysis. A framework to explore the mutual influence among risk factors to enhance accuracy in risk assessment was presented. A list of 43 safety risk factors was extracted using text mining method from 100 investigation reports on metro construction accidents, which were obtained from the official website of China State Administration of Work Safety. A multi-layer interpretative structural model was proposed based on the analysis of the pairwise correlation of risk factors to determine the contextual interactions among risks. A case study of Shenzhen Metro Line 9 project was conducted to explore the effect of the proposed method. Results show that the safety status of metro construction is affected by risks in field work and closely related to the risks in geological investigation and design work. The risks in geology, design, safety systems, and personnel quality are the root causes of accident among all the risk factors. Root risks do not directly result in safety accidents but cause potential uncertainties to indirect risks, which magnify the likelihood of direct risks. Direct risks, such as material risks and work operation risks, directly cause accidents in metro construction. The study plays an important role in assisting decision makers in formulating different precaution strategies, and the proposed analysis procedure and method can be applied to other similar and complex projects.

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Section: State Of the Artmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis on Relationships of Safety Risk Factors in Metro Construction

Xu¹,

Wang²,

Li³

et al. 2016

JESTR

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Issues concerning the structure, detail, and relevance of statistical hazard data mean it is often impossible to determine the base rate frequencies required for analysis such as the Bayesian Event Tree methods developed by Marzocchi, Sandri, and Selva [ 18 ]. However, these frequencies are not strictly required for predictive models based on the opinions of experienced and suitably qualified experts [ 19 ]. Relevant approaches to developing numerical models of potentially cascading disasters are exemplified by the combination of Cross Impact Analysis with Interpretive Structural Modelling (CIA-ISM), by Ramirez de la Huerga, Bañuls Silvera and Turoff [ 19 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, these frequencies are not strictly required for predictive models based on the opinions of experienced and suitably qualified experts [ 19 ]. Relevant approaches to developing numerical models of potentially cascading disasters are exemplified by the combination of Cross Impact Analysis with Interpretive Structural Modelling (CIA-ISM), by Ramirez de la Huerga, Bañuls Silvera and Turoff [ 19 ]. Their method produces structural models of cascading disaster progressions by gathering, iterating, and then combining expert likelihood ratings, without using base rate frequency data.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Of course, no one analytical approach provides a panacea for the challenges of analyzing cascading disaster risk. Despite the many types of events that could be involved, Ramirez de la Huerga et al [ 19 ] caution against adding too many triggers and impact parameters to the CIA-ISM process. This is because each parameter has a substantial effect on the number of expert ratings required.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This is because each parameter has a substantial effect on the number of expert ratings required. The importance of selecting the right set of initial rating parameters was demonstrated by Ramirez de la Huerga et al [ 19 ] by reminding readers that the number of pathways requiring ratings is equivalent to N × 2 n−1 . This exponential relationship between parameters (N) and ratings required constrains the number of triggers and impacts that could be thoroughly considered by busy experts with limited time available.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Infrastructural Aspects of Rain-Related Cascading Disasters: A Systematic Literature Review

Huggins

Feiyu

Chen

et al. 2020

IJERPH

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Cascading disasters progress from one hazard event to a range of interconnected events and impacts, with often devastating consequences. Rain-related cascading disasters are a particularly frequent form of cascading disasters in many parts of the world, and they are likely to become even more frequent due to climate change and accelerating coastal development, among other issues. (1) Background: The current literature review extended previous reviews of documented progressions from one natural hazard event to another, by focusing on linkages between rain-related natural hazard triggers and infrastructural impacts. (2) Methods: A wide range of case studies were reviewed using a systematic literature review protocol. The review quality was enhanced by only including case studies that detailed mechanisms that have led to infrastructural impacts, and which had been published in high-quality academic journals. (3) Results: A sum of 71 articles, concerning 99 case studies of rain-related disasters, were fully reviewed. Twenty-five distinct mechanisms were identified, as the foundation for a matrix running between five different natural hazards and eight types of infrastructural impacts. (4) Conclusion: Relatively complex quantitative methods are needed to generate locality-specific, cascading disaster likelihoods and scenarios. Appropriate methods can leverage the current matrix to structure both Delphi-based approaches and network analysis using longitudinal data.

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Enhancing hospital resilience and planning capacity in scenarios of crisis using group decision‐making and interpretive structural modeling

Bai,

Ferreira,

Ferreira

et al. 2024

Strategic Change

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Hospitals, as critical infrastructures, confront multifaceted challenges during crises, ranging from natural disasters to pandemics. Initially, these facilities must secure essential emergency support functions and, subsequently, expedite their recovery from any adverse impacts. Hospital resilience, influenced by numerous variables and assessed through various evaluation criteria, remains enigmatic in terms of relationships and hierarchy among these factors. By integrating group decision‐making and interpretive structural modeling, this study delves into determinants of practices bolstering hospital resilience from an internal management perspective. While the empirical results offer insights specific to the study context, the primary contribution is in the innovative methodology that shifts the emphasis from mere outputs to the intrinsic value of the process itself. Consequently, a hierarchical model of hospital resilience emerges, enriching insights into hospital resilience and highlighting the intricate balance between methodological rigor and tangible application, additionally serving as a blueprint for similar context‐specific investigations. The research culminated in a consolidation session with an external expert, who assessed the model's applicability as a tool for generating new knowledge about developing hospital resilience management. Advantages and limitations are also discussed.

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A CIA–ISM scenario approach for analyzing complex cascading effects in Operational Risk Management

Cited by 23 publications

References 19 publications

Analysis on Relationships of Safety Risk Factors in Metro Construction

Analysis on Relationships of Safety Risk Factors in Metro Construction

Infrastructural Aspects of Rain-Related Cascading Disasters: A Systematic Literature Review

Enhancing hospital resilience and planning capacity in scenarios of crisis using group decision‐making and interpretive structural modeling

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