A Collaborative Multiplicative Holt-Winters Forecasting Approach with Dynamic Fuzzy-Level Component

Kays, H.M. Emrul; Karim, Abdul; Daud, Mohd Radzi Che; Varela, Leonilde; Putnik, Goran D.; Machado, José

doi:10.3390/app8040530

Cited by 21 publications

(16 citation statements)

References 64 publications

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“…This function predicts future values based on historical time-based data using the AAA (Holt-Winters) version of the exponential smoothing (ETS) algorithm with the weights assigned to data variances over time in proportion to the terms of their geometric progression based on the following exponential scale {1, (1 − α), (1 − α)2, (1 − α)3, ...}. [36][37][38]. The predicted value is a continuation of the historical values in the specified target date, which should be a continuation of the timeline, using the basic equations for the Holt-Winters' multiplicative method [39].…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Achieving Sustainable Development Goals (SDG): Implementation of the 2030 Agenda in Romania

et al. 2019

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Romania needs a change of the current development paradigm to face the challenges of the 21st century. As a member of the European Union, leaders in Romania are is interested in implementing the principles of sustainable development at a national level to reduce development gaps, to increase citizens’ well-being, and to preserve a clean environment. The purpose of this research is to determine the implementation status of the 2030 Agenda sustainable development goals (SDG) in Romania and to explore to what extent Romania will be able to reach, for the 2030 horizon, EU average values for the selected indicators. The research is based on 107 indicators that monitored the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Eurostat database (sustainable development indicators) was the source of data in terms of their availability and integrity. The research results showed that the implementation status of SDG is sub-optimal. In the case of 40 indicators out of the 107 analyzed, forecasts indicate the possibility of reaching the EU average values by 2030. However, the country can remain on the path to sustainable development only by involving all stakeholders and increasing concrete and well-targeted measures to improve SDG indicators.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Achieving Sustainable Development Goals (SDG): Implementation of the 2030 Agenda in Romania

et al. 2019

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“…, ∞}. By taking a fully general approach, the FORECAST.ETS function is able to make the most of all of the members of its family and automatically choose the most effective method for a given dataset [56][57][58][59].…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing the Achievement of the SDG Targets for Health and Well-Being at EU Level by 2030

et al. 2020

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In this period of extreme changes in our society, issues related to the health and well-being of citizens are considered essential for the future of a united and prosperous Europe. Achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) at EU level by 2030 requires hard work done in a transformative way in order to implement a set of coherent, evidence-informed policies that address health, well-being and all their determinants throughout the course of life and across all sectors of government and society. The objective of this paper is to assess the stage of fulfillment of all SDG targets in relation to health and well-being at EU level, based on the current trend of each indicator, for each EU member country. Based on the Eurostat SDG data set for 2007–2018, the individual trends were forecast using the AAA (Holt-Winters) version of the exponential smoothing (ETS) algorithm. The research results are surprising, on the one hand showing the possibility that some targets will be reached, but also indicating that a large percentage of targets will not be reached if the current trend is continued, especially due to disruptive change generated by the current pandemic. There is a need to increase the involvement of all member states, but also ensure a deeper involvement at the level of EU institutions, to provide full support for meeting the targets proposed by the 2030 Agenda, ensuring prosperity and health for all European citizens, and becoming a model for all the states of the world.

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“…The Holt-Winters forecasting model is observed to outperform other techniques for the time series, having changing seasonality, mean, and growth rate [39]. It is an adaptive model that automatically recognizes changes in data patterns.…”

Section: Holt-winters Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Unconstrained Estimation of Multitype Car Rental Demand

et al. 2021

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The unconstrained demand forecast for car rentals has become a difficult problem for revenue management due to the need to cope with a variety of rental vehicles, the strong subjective desires and requests of customers, and the high probability of upgrading and downgrading circumstances. The unconstrained demand forecast mainly includes repairing of constrained historical demand and forecasting of future demand. In this work, a new methodology is developed based on multiple discrete choice models to obtain customer choice preference probabilities and improve a known spill model, including a repair process of the unconstrained demand. In addition, the linear Holt–Winters model and the nonlinear backpropagation neural network are combined to predict future demand and avoid excessive errors caused by a single method. In a case study, we take advantage of a stated preference and a revealed preference survey and use the variable precision rough set to obtain factors and weights that affect customer choices. In this case study and based on a numerical example, three forecasting methods are compared to determine the car rental demand of the next time cycle. The comparison with real demand verifies the feasibility and effectiveness of the hybrid forecasting model with a resulting average error of only 3.06%.

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A Collaborative Multiplicative Holt-Winters Forecasting Approach with Dynamic Fuzzy-Level Component

Cited by 21 publications

References 64 publications

Achieving Sustainable Development Goals (SDG): Implementation of the 2030 Agenda in Romania

Achieving Sustainable Development Goals (SDG): Implementation of the 2030 Agenda in Romania

Assessing the Achievement of the SDG Targets for Health and Well-Being at EU Level by 2030

Unconstrained Estimation of Multitype Car Rental Demand

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