A comparison of different approaches for the definition of seasons in the Mediterranean region

Abstract

Α new method, based on the definition of weather types (WTs), for the determination of seasons in the Mediterranean region is adopted. This method combines principal component analysis and k‐means Cluster Analysis on daily grid point meteorological data for the 70‐year period 1949–2018 obtained from the NCEP/NCAR database. At first, the method is applied to the classification of WTs and subsequently to the definition of seasons based on the mean intra‐annual variations of the WTs' frequency. The resulting seasons are compared to a previous method of the seasons' definition, based on the long‐term mean intra‐annual variations of climatological parameters. Furthermore, a synthesis of the two methods is proposed. The analysis is applied not only to the 70‐year period 1949–2018, but also to the five overlapping 30‐year sub‐periods 1949–1978, 1959–1988, 1969–1998, 1979–2008, 1989–2018 in order to investigate possible long‐term changes of the seasons' characteristics. Four seasons are identified for all periods and for both methodological approaches. These seasons broadly correspond to the four conventional ones, but they differ in their onset and cessation dates as well as their duration. For the composite method, it is found that winter lasts about 4 months, summer is a little longer than 3 months and spring and autumn last around 2.5 months. The most remarkable findings regarding the seasons' characteristics are: (a) the start/end dates and duration of winter are almost identical in all three approaches, while summers' characteristics differ; (b) shortening of winter and spring in recent periods, associated with the delayed start and expedited end dates, respectively; and (c) the prolongation of autumn and summer, due to the delay of its end date, and the earlier onset and delayed end dates, respectively.

Objective climatology and classification of the Mediterranean cyclones based on the ERA5 data set and the use of the results for the definition of seasons

“…1) at least once in their lifetime, are kept for the analysis. The inner domain is adopted for consistency with the definitions of the seasons in previous studies (Kotsias et al 2020b(Kotsias et al , 2021. The outer domain is required to avoid problems with spurious tracks and cyclogeneses along the boundaries of the area of interest.…”

“…Furthermore, the CTF method is compared and combined with two other methods for the definition of seasons: the meteorological variables' mean intra-annual variation (MVV) method introduced in Kotsias et al (2020b) and the weather types' frequency (WTF) method followed by Kotsias et al (2021).…”

“…In the WTF method (Kotsias et al 2021), a matrix is created that contains the daily values (1/1/1949-31/12/2018) of the 10 meteorological parameters. Then, PCA and CA are applied resulting in the classification of the dates into clusters.…”

“…Figure 9 also shows the seasons defined with the MVV and WTF methods applied in Kotsias et al 2020b) and Kotsias et al (2021).…”

“…This procedure is based on the objective classification of cyclone tracks performed with the use of a classification technique including principal component analysis and k-means cluster analysis. Moreover, this method of seasons' definition (cyclone tracks' frequency (CTF) method) is compared with two other seasons' definition methods: the meteorological variables' mean intra-annual variation (MVV) method introduced in Kotsias et al (2020b) and the weather types' frequency (WTF) method applied in Kotsias et al (2021). Finally, a composite (C) method which combines the CTF, MVV, and WTF methods is followed.…”