A Comparison of Maritime Risk Perception and Accident Statistics in the Istanbul Straight

Aydogdu, Volkan

doi:10.1017/s0373463313000593

Cited by 22 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 30 publications

(69 reference statements)

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“…Previous studies on maritime accidents involve a wide variety of geographical locations, including the Gulf of Finland (Mazaheri, Montewka, and Kujala 2014), Istanbul Strait (Aydogdu, 2014), the UK (Chauvin et al 2013;Bhattacharya, 2012), Greece (Tzannatos and Kokotos, 2009), Sweden (Mullai and Paulsson 2011), the heritage regions of Tubbataha and Banc d'Arguin (Heij et al 2013), the Arctic (Kum and Sahin 2015), the North Atlantic and Arctic regions (Knapp, Bijwaard, and Heij 2011), and China's Yangtze River (Zhang et al 2013;Zhang et al 2014).…”

Section: Studies Of Maritime Accidentsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Bayesian network modelling and analysis of accident severity in waterborne transportation: A case study in China

Wang

Yang

2018

Reliability Engineering & System Safety

149

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The rapid development of the shipping industry requires the use of large vessels carrying highvolume cargoes. Accidents incurred by these vessels can lead to a heavy loss of life and damage to the environment and property. As a leading country in international trade, China has developed its waterway transport systems, including inland waterways and coastal shipping, in the past decades. A few catastrophic shipping accidents have occurred during this period. This paper aims to develop a new risk analysis approach based on Bayesian networks (BNs) to enable the analysis of accident severity in waterborne transportation. Although the risk data are derived from accidents that occurred in China's waters, the risk factors influencing accident severity and the risk modelling methodology are generic and capable of generating useful insights on waterway risk analysis in a broad sense. To develop the BN-based risk model, waterway accident data are first collected from all accident investigation reports by China's Maritime Safety Administration (MSA) from 1979 to 2015. Based on the derived quantitative data, we identify the factors related to the severity of waterway accidents and use them as nodes of the risk model. Second, based on a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, an augmented naïve BN (ABN) model is selected through a comparative study with a naïve BN (NBN) model to analyse the key risk factors influencing waterway accident severity. The results show that the key factors influencing waterway safety include the type and location of the accident and the type and age of the ship. Moreover, a novel scenario analysis is conducted to predict accident severity in various situations by combining different states (e.g., high risk) of the key factors to generate useful insights for accident prevention. More specifically, the findings can aid transport authorities, ship owners and other stakeholders in improving waterborne transportation safety under uncertainty.

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Section: Studies Of Maritime Accidentsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Bayesian network modelling and analysis of accident severity in waterborne transportation: A case study in China

Wang

Yang

2018

Reliability Engineering & System Safety

149

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“…Or and Kahraman ( 2002) conducted a survey in the Strait to elicit probable factors contributing to accidents by using Bayesian analysis and simulation modelling [26], [33], [34]. They indicated that there were remarkable increases in the number of accidents for higher transit traffic rates, denser local traffic conditions, higher percentage of longer ships and/or adverse weather conditions [35].…”

Section: Literature Review On Istanbul Straitmentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk assessment of the Istanbul Strait by using Ports and Waterways Safety Assessment (PAWSA) method

Şahin¹,

Chan²

2018

Pamukkale J Eng Sci

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Ports and Waterways Safety Assessment (PAWSA) is a comprehensive and sophisticated AHP-based Delphi method in which risk analysis and risk management are handled simultaneously. PAWSA has primarily developed for maritime domain, and there is a need to extend such risk analyses to the other fields. First aim of this study is to introduce PAWSA process and to add its methodology to existing academic literature. Significance of PAWSA is exhibited and innovative suggestions for further developments are given in this study. Secondly, PAWSA method is employed for Istanbul Strait to obtain the levels of navigational risks and to measure effectiveness of counter actions. It analyses risks of navigation situations, the conditions of vessels, traffic intensity and waterway characteristics. Ultimately, it is aimed to minimize the marine incidents and increase navigational safety by introducing new counter actions. The Istanbul Strait is one of the most difficult-tonavigate and the narrowest international waterway in the world. The Istanbul Strait has a dense traffic because of its geographical and strategic location. According to annual statistics, traffic density is two times more than the Suez Canal and three times more than the Panama Canal. Besides the heavy local traffic, the Strait is used by approximately 50.000 international vessels with a total gross tonnage of 600 million. 15 million people live in Istanbul and 300.000 people are transported daily from Asia to Europe using Istanbul Strait. A comprehensive risk analysis by a convenient method for the Istanbul Strait is therefore required for safe maritime transportation. Limanlar ve suyolları emniyet değerlendirmesi (LVSED), risk analizinin ve yönetiminin eş zamanlı olarak yapıldığı AHP tabanlı kapsamlı ve karmaşık bir Delfi yöntemdir. Öncelikle denizcilik alanı için geliştirilen LVSED'in, diğer alanlardaki risk analizi uygulamalarına da genişletilmesi gerekmektedir. Bu çalışmanın ilk amacı, LVSED sürecini tanıtmak ve metodolojisini akademik yazına kazandırmaktır. Bu çalışmada LVSED'in önemi gösterilmiş ve ileride geliştirilmesi için inovatif öneriler verilmiştir. İkinci olarak seyir risklerini elde etmek ve alınan tedbirlerin verimliliğini ölçmek için PAWSA metodu İstanbul Boğazı'na uygulanmıştır. Seyir durumları, gemi kondisyonları, trafik yoğunluğu ve suyolu karakteristiği risklerini analiz etmektedir. Son olarak, deniz kazalarını minimize etmek ve yeni karşı önlemler ortaya koyarak seyir emniyetini artırmak amaçlanmaktadır. İstanbul Boğazı, dünyada seyri en zorlarından biri ve dünyanın en dar kanalıdır. Stratejik ve coğrafik lokasyonundan dolayı İstanbul Boğazı yoğun bir trafiğe sahiptir. Yıllık istatistiklere göre, trafik yoğunluğu Süveyş Kanalı'ndan iki kat, Panama Kanalı'ndan üç kat daha fazladır. Yoğun yerel trafiğin yanında, Boğaz toplam tonajı 600 milyon olan yaklaşık olarak 50.000 uluslararası gemi tarafından kullanılmaktadır. Istanbul'da 15 milyon insan yaşamakta ve hergün 300.000 kişi İstanbul Boğazını kullanarak Asya'dan Avrupa'ya seyehat etmektedir. ...

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“…On the other hand, local and international scholars have been studying crowd evacuation methods based on meta-heuristic algorithms, achieving good results [18][19][20]. Li et al [21] proposed a genetic algorithm to optimize the design of crowd evacuation facilities.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamic Evacuation Planning on Cruise Ships Based on an Improved Ant Colony System (IACS)

Liu

Zhang

Xie

et al. 2021

JMSE

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The emergency evacuation route planning of cruise ships directly affects the safety of all crew members and passengers during emergencies. Research on the planning of emergency evacuation routes for cruise ships is a frontier subject of maritime safety. This study proposes an improved ant colony system (IACS) to solve the evacuation route planning of crowds on cruise ships. The IACS, which is different from common single-path ant colony system (ACS) evacuation algorithms, is used to solve the multipath planning problem of crowd evacuation from cruise ships by considering crowd density and speed in the model. An increasing flow method is introduced into the IACS to improve the efficiency of the proposed algorithm. Numerical experiments show that this method meets the requirements of evacuation analysis guidelines for new and existing passenger ships (MSC.1/Circ.1533)and can effectively and efficiently plan the emergency evacuation path for cruise ship crowd.

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A Comparison of Maritime Risk Perception and Accident Statistics in the Istanbul Straight

Cited by 22 publications

References 30 publications

Bayesian network modelling and analysis of accident severity in waterborne transportation: A case study in China

Bayesian network modelling and analysis of accident severity in waterborne transportation: A case study in China

Risk assessment of the Istanbul Strait by using Ports and Waterways Safety Assessment (PAWSA) method

Dynamic Evacuation Planning on Cruise Ships Based on an Improved Ant Colony System (IACS)

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