A compartmental epidemic model incorporating probable cases to model COVID-19 outbreak in regions with limited testing capacity

Hasan, Agus; Nasution, Yuki Novia

doi:10.1016/j.isatra.2021.01.029

Cited by 10 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 10 publications

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“…Figure 4 shows that in general the estimated R t with suspected cases included is slightly different from the one without suspected cases. Due to a lower number of suspected cases in Jakarta than other provinces, such as West Java province (see [10]), the estimation of R t in Jakarta gives almost similar results. From the third week of May until the first week of June 2020, however, there was a significant jump in the number of suspected cases.…”

Section: Evaluation Of the Large Scale Social Restriction (Lssr)mentioning

confidence: 85%

Modeling COVID-19 Transmissions and Evaluation of Large Scale Social Restriction in Jakarta, Indonesia

Hasan

Nasution

Susanto

et al. 2022

CBMS

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This paper presents mathematical modeling and quantitative evaluation of Large Scale Social Restriction (LSSR) in Jakarta between 10 April and 4 June 2020. The special capital region of Jakarta is the only province among 34 provinces in Indonesia with an average Testing Positivity Rate (TPR) below 5% recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO). The transmission model is based on a discrete-time compartmental epidemiological model incorporating suspected cases. The quantitative evaluation is measured based on the estimation of the time-varying effective reproduction number (Rt). Our results show the LSSR has been successfully suppressed the spread of COVID-19 in Jakarta, which was indicated by Rt < 1. However, once the LSSR was relaxed, the effective reproduction number increased significantly. The model is further used for short-term forecasting to mitigate the course of the pandemic.

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Section: Evaluation Of the Large Scale Social Restriction (Lssr)mentioning

confidence: 85%

Modeling COVID-19 Transmissions and Evaluation of Large Scale Social Restriction in Jakarta, Indonesia

Hasan

Nasution

Susanto

et al. 2022

CBMS

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…Furthermore from (5), for S(0), I(0) > 0 the solutions S(k) and I(k) will remain bounded. See detailed explanation in [11]. Theorem 3.2.…”

Section: Mathematical Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Nonlinear Observer to Estimate the Effective Reproduction Number of Infectious Diseases

Hasan

2021

CBMS

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In this paper, we design a Nonlinear Observer (NLO) to estimate the effective reproduction number (Rt) of infectious diseases. The NLO is designed from a discrete-time augmented Susceptible-Infectious-Removed (SIR) model. The observer gain is obtained by solving a Linear Matrix Inequality (LMI). The method is used to estimate Rt in Jakarta using epidemiological data during COVID-19 pandemic. If the observer gain is tuned properly, this approach produces similar result compared to existing approach such as Extended Kalman filter (EKF).

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“…The Extended Kalman Filter has been used to estimate the parameter values and the reproduction number [28][29][30]. We estimate the reproduction number by applying the Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) to the discrete-time stochastic augmented compartmental as given in Model (9).…”

Section: Extended Kalman Filtermentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimating the Time Reproduction Number in Kupang City Indonesia, 2016–2020, and Assessing the Effects of Vaccination and Different Wolbachia Strains on Dengue Transmission Dynamics

et al. 2022

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The use of a vaccine and Wolbachia bacterium have been proposed as new strategies against dengue. However, the performance of Wolbachia in reducing dengue incidence may depend on the Wolbachia strains. Therefore, in this paper, the performance of two Wolbachia strains which are WMel and WAu, in combination with the vaccine, has been assessed by using an age-dependent mathematical model. An effective reproduction number has been calculated using the Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) algorithm. The results revealed that the time reproduction number varies overtime with the highest one being around 2.75. Moreover, it has also found that use of the vaccine and Wolbachia possibly leads to dengue elimination. Furthermore, vaccination on one group only reduces dengue incidence in that group but dengue infection in the other group is still high. Furthermore, the performance of the WAu strain is better than the WMel strain in reducing dengue incidence. However, both strains can still be used for dengue elimination strategies depending on the level of loss of Wolbachia infections in both strains.

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A compartmental epidemic model incorporating probable cases to model COVID-19 outbreak in regions with limited testing capacity

Cited by 10 publications

References 10 publications

Modeling COVID-19 Transmissions and Evaluation of Large Scale Social Restriction in Jakarta, Indonesia

Modeling COVID-19 Transmissions and Evaluation of Large Scale Social Restriction in Jakarta, Indonesia

A Nonlinear Observer to Estimate the Effective Reproduction Number of Infectious Diseases

Estimating the Time Reproduction Number in Kupang City Indonesia, 2016–2020, and Assessing the Effects of Vaccination and Different Wolbachia Strains on Dengue Transmission Dynamics

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