Estimating the Time Reproduction Number in Kupang City Indonesia, 2016–2020, and Assessing the Effects of Vaccination and Different Wolbachia Strains on Dengue Transmission Dynamics

Abstract

The use of a vaccine and Wolbachia bacterium have been proposed as new strategies against dengue. However, the performance of Wolbachia in reducing dengue incidence may depend on the Wolbachia strains. Therefore, in this paper, the performance of two Wolbachia strains which are WMel and WAu, in combination with the vaccine, has been assessed by using an age-dependent mathematical model. An effective reproduction number has been calculated using the Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) algorithm. The results revealed that the time reproduction number varies overtime with the highest one being around 2.75. Moreover, it has also found that use of the vaccine and Wolbachia possibly leads to dengue elimination. Furthermore, vaccination on one group only reduces dengue incidence in that group but dengue infection in the other group is still high. Furthermore, the performance of the WAu strain is better than the WMel strain in reducing dengue incidence. However, both strains can still be used for dengue elimination strategies depending on the level of loss of Wolbachia infections in both strains.

Using compartmental models and Particle Swarm Optimization to assess Dengue basic reproduction number R0 for the Republic of Panama in the 1999-2022 period

“…In future work, it would be valuable to explore the potential of other differential equation-based compartmental models that take into account vector-host-mitigation strategies (vaccination or Wolbachia bacterium inoculation) as interactions [44] , [45] , [43] . Such models have been used in the past to evaluate the impact of local vector eradication and control efforts carried out by Health authorities [76] , [77] , [78] .…”

“…Investigative efforts in vector-borne pandemics have leveraged ordinary differential equations (ODEs) as a valuable tool to guide the development of effective control strategies. The SIR and SIR-SI models, for instance, have been widely employed to determine optimal vaccination schedules and assess the efficacy of various control methods, as demonstrated in several recent studies [43] , [44] , [45] .…”

Estimasi Bilangan Reproduksi Dasar Penyebaran Penyakit Tuberkulosis Di Kabupaten Bima Tahun 2022

“…Salah satu alat analisis yang efektif dalam memahami dinamika penyebaran penyakit pada suatu populasi adalah model matematika [3], [4]. Elemen yang penting dalam mengkaji model matematika adalah bilangan reproduksi dasar ( ℛ 0 ) dimana bilangan reproduksi dasar tersebut merupakan ambang batas dalam menentukan keendemikan suatu penyakit [5]. Pada tulisan ini nilai bilangan reproduksi Jurnal Diferensial, Volume 04, Nomor 02, November 2022 E-ISSN: 2775-9644 dasar diestimasi berdasarkan data real yang tersedia dilapangan, dan teknik perhitungan estimasi nilai ℛ 0 merujuk pada tulisan [6]- [8].…”

Modelling the ecological dynamics of mosquito populations with multiple co-circulating Wolbachia strains

“…w Mel and w MelPop strains). Some recent studies compared two different and separate Wolbachia strains: w Au and w Mel 40 , w AlbB and w Mel 1 , and w AlbB/ w MelCS and w Mel 6 . The authors in 40 investigated the use of vaccination and two Wolbachia strains ( w Au and w Mel) to reduce dengue incidence and showed that although both strains can be used to mitigate dengue, w Au performed better than w Mel.…”