A computer model of international violence

Reduction of socio‐economic injustice: Four scenarios to the year 2001

“…A substantial number of analyses link war with arms budgets-the greater the arms spending versus GNP, the greater the chance of war in subsequent years (Kemp, 1976;Choucri & North, 1975;Singer & Small, 1974;Newcombe et al, 1975). Military power, the ability to inflict damage on a neighboring state, appears to be the causative agent, for as well as weapons themselves, military alliances seem also to be implicated, especially in the 20th century (Kemp, 1976;Wallace, 1972;Singer & Small, 1974). Other forms of imperialism beyond military imperialism have been found to be associated with war.…”

“…This is based on the synchronic and diachronic findings that arms spending (and numbers of defensive alliances and numbers of multi-national corporations) are positively, consistently and significantly linked to foreign wars (Kemp, 1976(Kemp, , 1977. All money saved by disarmament is assumed to go into capital investment within the disarming country, with a capital-out-put ratio for all disarmament scenarios of 3.33:1.…”

“…What does this bode for the future? A thorough analysis by Kemp (1977) suggests that three variables can be effectively used for prediction: defensive alliances, arms spending and numbers of MNC subsidiaries. Numbers of colonies as a predictor is not as important now as it was in the past, since the numbers are so rapidly decreasing.…”