A Continuum Approach to Understanding Changes in the ENSO–Indian Monsoon Relationship

Schulte, Justin; Policelli, F.; Zaitchik, Benjamin F.

doi:10.1175/jcli-d-20-0027.1

Cited by 4 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 35 publications

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“…Most past researchers such as Anyamba et al (2019), Harrison et al (2019), Kreppel et al (2019), Chang'a et al (2020, and Mafuru and Guirong (2020) examined the influence of the EP ENSO on the long rains over Tanzania using SST anomaly (SSTA) over the Niño3.4 region. However, SST patterns across the equatorial Pacific Ocean belong to a continuum of patterns comprising CP, EP, and mixed ENSO flavours (Capotondi et al, 2015;Schulte et al, 2021). The relationship between the dominant mode(s) of rainfall and SSTs has been studied in previous studies (Funk et al, 2014;Vellinga and Milton, 2018).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The dominant modes of the long rains interannual variability over Tanzania and their oceanic drivers

Kebacho

Chen

2022

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Mitigating the impacts of droughts and floods over East Africa (EA) may largely be possible through accurate predictions of the long rains (March–May). Though the close interannual variability between the long rains, Indian and Pacific Oceans has been widely studied, Tanzania's long rain variability remains unclear. This paper examines the Tanzanian long rains dominant modes through an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, and their relationship with winter sea surface temperature (SST) for the period 1951–2018. Correlation and composite analyses were applied to explore the associated mechanisms. The first EOF (EOF1) mode is characterized by negative anomalies over Tanzania. The second EOF (EOF2) mode depicts positive (negative) anomalies over northern (southern) Tanzania. The third EOF (EOF3) mode reveals positive (negative) anomalies over eastern (western) Tanzania. EOF1 is closely related to the SST anomalies (SSTAs) in the southeastern Indian Ocean (SEIO). When the SSTAs are positive, they subsequently linked to upper (lower) level convergence (southeasterly winds) over Tanzania. Associated with this convergence entails a sinking motion, leading to a negative rainfall anomaly. The southeasterly winds indicate an early onset of the southeast monsoon, leading to normal rainfall been recorded. EOF2 is linked to the SSTAs in the central Pacific (CP). Positive SSTAs are related to reversed Walker circulation (WC) over northern Tanzania, while the upper‐level convergence was observed around southern Tanzania. This meridional dipole vertical motion pattern enhances (suppresses) rainfall anomalies. EOF3 is associated with mega El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)‐like SSTAs. The SSTAs are related to eastward shift of WC over the Indian Ocean, and zonal cell over the western Indian Ocean with rising limb is located east of Tanzania. The ascending motion enhances rainfall over eastern Tanzania. Predictions based on the SEIO, CP, and mega ENSO index may significantly support long rains prediction efforts and provide early warning.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The dominant modes of the long rains interannual variability over Tanzania and their oceanic drivers

Kebacho

Chen

2022

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Recent Advances in Understanding Multi-scale Climate Variability of the Asian Monsoon

Chen

Zhang

et al. 2023

Adv. Atmos. Sci.

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Studies of the multi-scale climate variability of the Asian monsoon are essential to an advanced understanding of the physical processes of the global climate system. In this paper, the progress achieved in this field is systematically reviewed, with a focus on the past several years. The achievements are summarized into the following topics: (1) the onset of the South China Sea summer monsoon; (2) the East Asian summer monsoon; (3) the East Asian winter monsoon; and (4) the Indian summer monsoon. Specifically, new results are highlighted, including the advanced or delayed local monsoon onset tending to be synchronized over the Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal, Indochina Peninsula, and South China Sea; the basic features of the record-breaking mei-yu in 2020, which have been extensively investigated with an emphasis on the role of multi-scale processes; the recovery of the East Asian winter monsoon intensity after the early 2000s in the presence of continuing greenhouse gas emissions, which is believed to have been dominated by internal climate variability (mostly the Arctic Oscillation); and the accelerated warming over South Asia, which exceeded the tropical Indian Ocean warming, is considered to be the main driver of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall recovery since 1999. A brief summary is provided in the final section along with some further discussion on future research directions regarding our understanding of the Asian monsoon variability.

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Effect of large-scale oceanic and atmospheric processes on the Indian summer monsoon

Lenka

Devi

Joseph

et al. 2022

Theor Appl Climatol

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A Continuum Approach to Understanding Changes in the ENSO–Indian Monsoon Relationship

Cited by 4 publications

References 35 publications

The dominant modes of the long rains interannual variability over Tanzania and their oceanic drivers

The dominant modes of the long rains interannual variability over Tanzania and their oceanic drivers

Recent Advances in Understanding Multi-scale Climate Variability of the Asian Monsoon

Effect of large-scale oceanic and atmospheric processes on the Indian summer monsoon

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