A crisis of integration? The development of transnational dyadic trust in theEuropeanUnion, 1954–2004

Abstract

The healthy functioning and long-term viability of the European Union (EU) ultimately depend on its citizens finding common cause and developing a shared sense of political community. However, in recent years, scholars and pundits alike have expressed doubts about whether the EU's growing cultural, religious and economic diversity is undermining the development of citizens' shared sense of political community, especially following eastern expansion. In this article, this question is examined using data on a key aspect of political community: transnational dyadic trust. Drawing on a unique set of opinion surveys from the formative years of the EU to the first wave of eastward expansion , the development and sources of dyadic trust among EU Member States is studied. While recognising the importance of diversity for trust judgments in the short-term, the prevailing viewpoint that it is also a long-term obstacle to integration is challenged. Instead, it is argued that citizens from diverse cultural and economic backgrounds can learn to trust one another and build a sense of political community over time through greater cooperation and interconnectedness. This theory is tested with data on bilateral trade density, which is seen as a proxy and precursor for other forms of cross-national interconnectedness. Employing longitudinal models, the article also goes beyond existing research to test the theories over time.The study makes a contribution to the research on European integration, suggesting that over time mutual trust and a shared sense of political community can indeed develop in diverse settings.

Images of Europeans: transnational trust and support for European integration

“…In addition, citizens in wealthier European countries are more trusting (Delhey and Newton 2005). Lastly, cultural factors are secondary to economic development in explaining transnational trust in Europe (Klingemann and Weldon 2013).…”

“…Europe's diversity can undermine a sense of political community unless transnational trust develops (Klingemann and Weldon 2013). Previous studies of transnational trust demonstrate the importance of economic development with particular attention to the fact that poorer European countries are less likely to be trusted (Delhey 2007;Gerritsen and Lubbers 2010).…”

“…The calculation of the transnational trust variable at the aggregated dyad level begins with the following calculation suggested by Klingemann and Weldon (2013):…”

“…LF jk is a dummy variable that has a value of 1 if nationalities j and k share the same language family or 0 otherwise (Klingemann and Weldon 2013). I use the shared language family variable to explain trust between in-and out-groups since sharing a language family can improve communication among groups (Deutsch 1953;Klingemann and Weldon 2013).…”

“…The statistical analysis section tests the hypotheses using the European Election Study (EES 2004and 2009) and the Eurobarometer 64.2 (2005 survey data that include a representative sample of individuals from 24 EU membersstates. The 2004 EES survey offers the most recent data measuring European transnational trust (Klingemann and Weldon 2013). In one part of the analysis, I aggregate variables to the national level and use country dyads as the unit of analysis.…”