A Critical Review of Techniques Used for Forecasting Car Ownership in Discrete Areas

Abstract

This paper presents a review of current “best practice” techniques used in forecasting future car ownership patterns within a particular area. The arguments offered make no claim to any great originality although, following a critique of the two most widely used procedures, a number of suggestions for improving such techniques are made. It is concluded that the current method of forecasting vehicular ownership independently of other models in the transport planning process is inadequate and that some form of larger interdependent system would seem more appropriate.

The Transition From Pigou’s Ideas on Road Pricing to Their Application

“…The congestion problem was viewed as one of capacity shortages rather than one that also roads (Edelson 1971), and HOT lanes (Small et al 2006; Hideo and Mun 2010). Button (2004) and Lindsey (2006), albeit using different metrics, quantify trends in publishing on road pricing.…”

“…33 Despite Allais's arguments (Allais et al 1967), the European Community did not press for congestion charging. Although a Common Transport Policy was mandated under the Treaty of Rome, it took until the late 1980s for anything of substance to emerge, and local matters were not treated as of Union interest even after that (Button 2010b).…”

“…It was rumored that Prime Minister Alec Douglas-Home had suggested to "take a vow that if we are re-elected we will never again set up a study like this one" (cited in Goodwin 1997). One reason for the lack of immediate concern was that car ownership was not growing as fast as forecast (Button 1974).…”

“…This work was a stimulus for the UK House of Commons Transport Committee's (1982, p. lvii) suggesting "that the benefits, costs and disadvantages of supplementary licensing can only be fully assessed by experiment and in view of the scale of the potential benefits we have concluded that an experiment may need to be undertaken." Likewise, interest was being shown by several US states, and the federal government, in conducting small-scale experiments (Button 1984). The Howard-Williams Surface Transportation Act 1978, for example, explicitly allocated funds to the Urban Mass Transportation Administration to support two-year demonstration projects that would employ techniques like the Singapore area licensing system that had been established in 1975, but take-up was limited, mainly for political reasons (Higgins 1981).…”

The Transition from Pigou’s Ideas on Road Pricing to their Application

“…It was rumored that the Prime Minister, Alec Douglas-Home, had suggested to "take a vow that if we are re-elected we will never again set up a study like this one" (cited in Goodwin, 1997). One reason for the lack of immediate concern was that car ownership was not growing as fast as forecast (Button, 1974).…”