A cross-country analysis of the Okun's Law coefficient convergence in Europe

Perman, Roger; Tavéra, Christophe

doi:10.1080/00036840500366395

Cited by 64 publications

(55 citation statements)

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“…12 Our research endeavor made ample use of the considerable opportunities offered by Microsoft EXCEL 2010 for calculating long rows of percentage changes, relative ascent and decline, and rolling regressions and correlations over long distances of time. Rolling regressions and correlations as a methodology were discussed, among others, in Perman and Tavera ( 2005 ), Smith andTaylor ( 2001 ), andTang ( 2010 ). At a glance, our data are based on the sources described below in Box 1.…”

Section: Kaname Akamatsumentioning

confidence: 99%

“…"Rolling" regressions and correlations are quite a powerful and straightforward instrument of the analysis of time-series and became more popular in recent times in the framework of fi nancial market trend analysis and the necessity to have easily interpretable and reliable instruments of analysis at hand (Perman & Tavera, 2005 ;Smith & Taylor, 2001 ;Tang, 2010 ;Zivot & Wang, 2006, furthermore: Cook, 1977Dempster, 1969 ;Velleman & Welsch, 1981 ). Throughout this work, we use 25 year (Kondratieff cycles, 2 × 25 years = 50 years) and 75 year periods (war cycles, 2 × 75 years = 150 years) for the moving time window of regression/correlation analysis.…”

Section: Kaname Akamatsumentioning

confidence: 99%

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Economic Cycles, Crises, and the Global Periphery

Гринин

Tausch

Korotayev³

2016

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The Springer series International Perspectives on Social Policy, Administration and Practice puts the spotlight on international and comparative studies of social policy, administration, and practice with an up-to-date assessment of their character and development. In particular, the series seeks to examine the underlying assumptions of the practice of helping professions, nonprofi t organization and management, and public policy and how processes of both nation-state and globalization are affecting them. The series also includes specifi c country case studies, with valuable comparative analysis across Asian, African, Latin American, and Western welfare states.The series International Perspectives on Social Policy, Administration and Practice commissions approximately six books per year, focusing on international perspectives on social policy, administration, and practice, especially an East-West connection. It assembles an impressive set of researchers from diverse countries illuminating a rich, deep, and broad understanding of the implications of comparative accounts on international social policy, administration, and practice.More information about this series at

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Section: Kaname Akamatsumentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Kaname Akamatsumentioning

confidence: 99%

Economic Cycles, Crises, and the Global Periphery

Гринин

Tausch

Korotayev³

2016

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“…Our data for the 31 countries under scrutiny here are exclusively based, as we already briefly mentioned, on Angus Maddison's research see Bolt and van Zanden, 2013, and Maddison, 2003, 2007. The considerable opportunities offered by Microsoft EXCEL 2010 for calculating long rows of percentage changes, relative ascent and decline, and rolling regressions and correlations over long distances of time were extensively used in our research endeavor (Perman and Tavera, 2005;Smith and Taylor, 2001;Tang, 2010).…”

Section: Methodology and Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In calculations not reported here also multivariate analyses (principal components) were used (Blalock, 1972;Dziuban and Shirkey, 1974;Harman, 1976, andRummel, 1970). "Rolling" regressions and correlations are quite a powerful and straightforward instrument of the analysis of time-series and became more popular in recent times in the framework of financial market trend analysis and the necessity to have easily interpretable and reliable instruments of analysis at hand (Perman and Tavera, 2005;Smith and Taylor, 2001;Tang, 2010;Zivot andWang, 2006, furthermore: Cook, 1977;Dempster, 1969;Velleman and Welsch, 1981). Throughout this work, we use 25 year (Kondratiev/Kondratieff cycles, 2x25 years = 50 years) and 75 year periods (war cycles, 2x75 years = 150 years) for the moving time window of regression/correlation analysis.…”

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confidence: 99%

The Hallmarks of Crisis: A New Center-Periphery Perspective on Long Cycles

Tausch

2013

SSRN Journal

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Our analysis, based on a variety of standard econometric techniques, aims to be a fairly comprehensive test of the hypotheses about long cycles, associated with the name of Kondratiev/Kondratieff. Our work tries to link the issue of long cycles with the issue of economic convergence and divergence in the world system, because there are very strong cyclical ups and downs of relative convergence in the world system, observable not just in the "national" growth rates and "national" economic cycles. Already the Japanese economist Kaname Akamatsu, who lived from August 7, 1896 to December 20, 1974, and who was a great admirer of Kondratiev/Kondratieff, hinted at this connection. His most well-known tribute to Kondratiev/Kondratieff (Akamatsu, 1961) specifically links the rise and decline of the global peripheries to the larger Kondratiev/Kondratieff cycle. His contribution, which is hardly ever mentioned nowadays in the framework of K-cycle research, is the starting point of our analysis.In fact, these "Akamatsu cycles", analyzed in this work, are even stronger and seem to be more devastating than the "national Kondratiev/Kondratieff waves" and world systemic waves themselves, leading to the discovery of what might be even termed a "double-Tsunami wave structure".Both our re-analysis of world industrial production growth data since 1741 as well as the global conflict data since 1495, presented in this article, cautiously support the earlier contentions of world system research with evidence, tested by spectral analysis and auto-correlation analysis.Using the well-known and now updated Maddison data base at http://www.ggdc.net/maddison/maddison-project/data.htm, Kondratiev/Kondratieff cycles of around 60 years duration at a nation state level are most clearly visible in Argentina, Canada, and Russia, with evidence on the existence of longer cycles of more than 35 years also in Belgium; Chile; Greece; Netherlands; India; New Zealand; Spain; and USA; while for the other countries of the Maddison data set, earlier negative spectral density analysis results reported in the ample literature surveyed in this article could not be falsified. By contrast, the evidence about strong long term cycles of convergence seems to be very convincing.Future research is recommended to realize that convergence processes in most nations of the world are discontinuous and of a cyclical nature, thus supporting the pessimism inherent in the writings by the world systems scholar Giovanni Arrighi on the subject. is but a continuation of earlier economic major downturns in the 1970s, the 1930s, the 1890s and 1850s, then the prospects for the semiperipheries in Europe's South and in Ireland, recently referred to in the economics profession as the "PIIGS countries" Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, Spain, see, for differing perspectives on this issue, Baglioni and Cherubini, 2010;De Grauwe and Ji, 2012;Erber, 2013;Hadjimichalis, 2011;Noren, 2011;Richardson, 2011; Wind, 2011) are even grimmer. And if we manage to show convincingly that th...

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“…A vast number of studies investigate the unemployment-output relationship in a linear framework and assume that the cyclical output has symmetrical effects on unemployment (Hamada and Kurosaka, 1984;Attfield and Silverstone, 1998;Christopoulos, 2004;Gabrisch and Buscher, 2006). However, when the fitness and stability of the Okun's law have been revisited and discussed by Sögner and Stiassny (2002); Perman and Tavera (2005), there is little evidence showing that the labour market should react to the business cycle in the symmetric pattern. In response to this issue, researchers are increasingly shifting their interests into the nonlinear modeling of the unemployment-output tradeoff (Lee, 2000;Harris and Silverstone, 2000;Altissimo and Violante, 2001;Vougas, 2003;Marinkov and Geldenhuys, 2007).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Asymmetric Unemployment-Output Tradeoff in the Eurozone

Tang

Bethencourt

2016

SSRN Journal

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This study investigates the asymmetric unemployment-output tradeoff in the Eurozone.Building upon the augmented Okun's law framework, the relationships between unemployment and output cannot be correctly specified in the static linear, static asymmetric and dynamic linear regressions. By contrast, the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model is well-specified and in this case indicates that the nature of Okun's law is asymmetric.For the Eurozone, the NARDL estimates demonstrate that labour markets quickly respond to cyclical outputs in a short period, while the adjustments towards new equilibrium become weak in the long run. Furthermore, the cross-sectional analysis of long run asymmetries indicates that government spending and trade balance are key factors affecting the asymmetric unemployment-output tradeoff. Thus, these results seem to suggest that, in spite of the fact that member states lack monetary sovereignty, flexible application of fiscal reforms or labour market reforms could help to reduce asymmetric effects. JEL Codes: C22, E32, J64.Keywords: unemployment-output tradeoff, nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL), asymmetry determinants. * We thank Matthew Greenwood-Nimmo and Hanan Naser for their insightful comments on a previous version. The remaining errors are our own.

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A cross-country analysis of the Okun's Law coefficient convergence in Europe

Cited by 64 publications

References 28 publications

Economic Cycles, Crises, and the Global Periphery

Economic Cycles, Crises, and the Global Periphery

The Hallmarks of Crisis: A New Center-Periphery Perspective on Long Cycles

Asymmetric Unemployment-Output Tradeoff in the Eurozone

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