A current state and forecasting of the socio-ecological-economic system of the White sea watershed with use of cognitive simulation

Меншуткин, В. В.; Economics, St. Petersburg; Filatov, Nikolai; Druzhinin, Pavel

doi:10.25283/2223-4594-2018-2-4-17

Cited by 5 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 1 publication

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…В первой когнитивной модели для Беломорья [7] рассматривались изменения гидрологических условий экосистемы, биогенной нагрузки, фито-и зоопланктона, рыбных запасов. При инерционном сценарии развития экономики, который предусматривает сохранение внешних воздействий на систему, какими они были до 2018 г., отмечается стабилизация уровня загрязнения моря, сохранение рыбных ресурсов.…”

Section: материалы и методыunclassified

“…Подмодель Водная экосистема в данном случае представлена одной популяцией промысловой рыбы, состоящей из 6 возрастных групп, и, как в модели [7], величинами, характеризующими биомассу бентоса, фито-и зоопланктона. Важность включения рыболовства в модель обусловлена тем, что оно значительно влияет на условия проживания местного населенияпоморов Беломорья.…”

Section: материалы и методыunclassified

“…Для изучения сложной эколого-социо-экономической системы Белое мореводосбор были разработаны когнитивные модели [7][8][9]. В первых когни-тивных моделях такой системы в качестве основной целевой функции рассматривалась возможность обеспечения наилучшего развития всех субрегионов (субъектов РФ), входящих в водосбор, для устойчивого развития региона [7]. Оценивалось соотношение величины инвестиций в развитие субрегионов и демографических характеристик населения для достижения наилучших (комфортных) условий проживания.…”

Section: Introductionunclassified

“…В отличие от предыдущих разработок новая модель эколого-социо-экономической системы Белого моря и его водосбора имеет иерархическую структуру, включающую в себя 5 подмоделей, объединенных общей системой управления. В настоящей работе предлагается модель, которая представляет собой развитие эколого-экономических когнитивных моделей [7,10,11]. Модель можно использовать для разных целей управления, связанных, например, с повышением уровня жизни населения, охраной окружающей среды, развитием различных отраслей экономики.…”

Section: Introductionunclassified

See 3 more Smart Citations

Modeling the Ecological-Socio-Economic System of the White Sea and its Watershed

Меншуткин¹,

Filatov²

2021

MGZh

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Purpose. The work is aimed at developing a cognitive model of the ecological-socio-economic system of the White Sea and its watershed (called for short Belomorje). Unlike the previously developed cognitive models for the region, the new model of the system has a hierarchical structure including five sub-models united by a common management system. The model is intended for obtaining prognostic qualitative assessments of the transformations ongoing in a complex system under various scenarios of nature management and climate change. The model makes it possible to determine different targets, which, in their turn, permit to assess the possibilities of improving the population living standards, the environment rational use and protection, and development of the White Sea region social sphere. These factors constitute an important foundation for achieving sustainable development of the region. The results can serve a basis for constructing a system of quantitative models required to develop the management decision support systems. Methods and Results. The cognitive model of the White Sea is considered to be a tool for synthesizing heterogeneous information about a complex ecological-socio-economic system. The conceptual modeling and the mathematical apparatus of continuous or fuzzy logic are applied. Unlike the traditional cognitive models, the new one implies the variables’ change in time over 100 years. This allows us to describe the relationship between the interaction agents, and to characterize the mechanisms of their mutual adaptation. The time step in the model is preset to be one year. Development of the cognitive models for the White Sea region was supported by the following information: geographic information systems, databases, integrated electronic and paper atlases of the White Sea and its watershed area, original 3D mathematical models of the sea thermohydrodynamics and ecosystem. The patterns of climate change, hydrological conditions and fishing (basic occupation of local population – the Pomors) were studied. At that, the models both for assessing the regional economy state and for forecasting its development are used. Conclusions. A new cognitive model of the White Sea region ecological-socio-economic system was created based on the hierarchical principle. The developed sub-models relate to various fields of knowledge: economics, demography, oceanography, soil and agrophysics. Dynamics of the model elements over 100 years was demonstrated. Besides, it was shown that with the quasi-cyclic climate fluctuations, the economic parameters change insignificantly, whereas they have a noticeable impact upon the population living standards and the White Sea ecosystem. The demonstrated features resulted from the climate change effects upon the White Sea ecosystem are manifested in the fluctuations of water temperature, phyto- and zooplankton biomass and fishing, but the changes in benthos are hardly noticeable. Dependence of the White Sea region population outflow upon the gross regional product size, availability of production facilities and water quality is shown. Water quality in the region increases, unfortunately, not due to the investments in water treatment, but because of the pollution decrease resulted from the population and production shrinkage.

show abstract

Section: материалы и методыunclassified

Section: Introductionunclassified

See 2 more Smart Citations

Modeling the Ecological-Socio-Economic System of the White Sea and its Watershed

Меншуткин¹,

Filatov²

2021

MGZh

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Индексы переменных: MUR, KAR, ARK, VOL, KOL свидетельствуют о принадлежности к субьекту РФ, входящему в водосбор. Cognitive map of the socio-ecological and economic system of the White Sea basin (explanation of the notation of variables is given in the text[Menshutkin et al, 2018] Валовый региональный продукт PROD и распределение инвестиций рассматривались по трём направлениям -на новое строительство, на модернизацию и на природоохранную деятельность. Управляющая часть модели посвящена выработке такого распределения инвестиций по регионам, которое при заданной их сумме обеспечит наилучшее развитие всех субъектов РФ, входящих в водосбор Белого моря.…”

unclassified

Experience of assessing state and forecasting of socio-ecological-economic system: to the question of sustainable development of the region

Меншуткин

Filatov

2020

ICIGIS

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

A review of various cognitive models for the region developed by the authors is proposed. To assess the opportunities for sustainable development of the region — the White Sea and the watershed, a set of cognitive models that reflect the dynamics of economic characteristics, the state and change of the environment, climate, agriculture and forestry and the social sphere are developed. Four models of the ecological-socio-economic system of the region are presented, which are used to determine different targets aimed at assessing the possibilities of improving the of living standard of the population, rational use and protection of the environment, the development of certain sectors of the economy and social sphere of the region which important for sustainable development of the region. In the first cognitive model for the region, the main objective function was considered to ensure the best possible development of all subregions (constituent entities of the Russian Federation) included in the watershed. The ratio of the magnitude of investments in the development of subregions and the demographic characteristics of the population to achieve comfortable living conditions was estimated. The second model was developed in order to study the possibilities of improving the living standards of the population using fisheries — a traditional occupation of the local Pomor’s population. The third model solved the multi-criteria problems of determining such a regime of control actions that would ensure the achievement of the maximum living standard of the population under different scenarios of the state of the economy and climate change. The fourth model took into account previous developments, is built on a hierarchical principle and can be used for various management purposes. The model is intended for prognostic assessments at a qualitative level of ongoing changes in a complex socio-ecological-economic system under various scenarios of economy, environmental management and climate change. The results can serve as the basis for constructing a system of quantitative models necessary for the development of management decision support systems.

show abstract

Modeling Optimal Control of the Ecological–Socioeconomic System Water Body–Watershed: Case Study of the White Sea Region

Меншуткин

Filatov

2020

Water Resour

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

A current state and forecasting of the socio-ecological-economic system of the White sea watershed with use of cognitive simulation

Cited by 5 publications

References 1 publication

Modeling the Ecological-Socio-Economic System of the White Sea and its Watershed

Modeling the Ecological-Socio-Economic System of the White Sea and its Watershed

Experience of assessing state and forecasting of socio-ecological-economic system: to the question of sustainable development of the region

Modeling Optimal Control of the Ecological–Socioeconomic System Water Body–Watershed: Case Study of the White Sea Region

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About