A data-assimilative ocean forecasting system for the Prince William sound and an evaluation of its performance during sound Predictions 2009

Farrara, John D.; Chao, Yi; Li, Zhijin; Wang, Xiaochun; Jin, Xin; Zhang, Hongchun; Li, Peggy; Vu, Quoc; Olsson, Peter Q.; Schoch, G. Carl; Halverson, Mark; Moline, Mark A.; Ohlmann, Carter; Johnson, Mark A.; McWilliams, James C.; Colas, François

doi:10.1016/j.csr.2012.11.008

Cited by 17 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 30 publications

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“…Farrara et al . [] and Li et al . [] conducted Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) simulations of Prince William Sound, Alaska for the summer of 2009, during which time a comprehensive field campaign in the Sound took place.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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High‐resolution modeling of coastal freshwater discharge and glacier mass balance in the Gulf of Alaska watershed

Beamer

Hill

Arendt

et al. 2016

Water Resources Research

168

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A comprehensive study of the Gulf of Alaska (GOA) drainage basin was carried out to improve understanding of the coastal freshwater discharge (FWD) and glacier volume loss (GVL). Hydrologic processes during the period 1980-2014 were modeled using a suite of physically based, spatially distributed weather, energy-balance snow/ice melt, soil water balance, and runoff routing models at a high-resolution (1 km horizontal grid; daily time step). Meteorological forcing was provided by the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR), Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), and Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) data sets. Streamflow and glacier mass balance modeled using MERRA and CFSR compared well with observations in four watersheds used for calibration in the study domain. However, only CFSR produced regional seasonal and long-term trends in water balance that compared favorably with independent Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and airborne altimetry data. Mean annual runoff using CFSR was 760 km 3 yr 21 , 8% of which was derived from the long-term removal of stored water from glaciers (glacier volume loss). The annual runoff from CFSR was partitioned into 63% snowmelt, 17% glacier ice melt, and 20% rainfall. Glacier runoff, taken as the sum of rainfall, snow, and ice melt occurring each season on glacier surfaces, was 38% of the total seasonal runoff, with the remaining runoff sourced from nonglacier surfaces. Our simulations suggests that existing GRACE solutions, previously reported to represent glacier mass balance alone, are actually measuring the full water budget of land and ice surfaces.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…[] and it was observed (Figure of Farrara et al . [] and Li et al . []) that the ROMS salinities were much higher than the observations.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

High‐resolution modeling of coastal freshwater discharge and glacier mass balance in the Gulf of Alaska watershed

Beamer

Hill

Arendt

et al. 2016

Water Resources Research

168

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…The tidal forcing is added through lateral boundary conditions that are obtained from a global barotropic tidal model (TPXO.6) [ Egbert and Erofeeva , ; Egbert et al ., ] that has a horizontal resolution of 0.25° and uses an inverse modeling technique to assimilate satellite altimetry cross‐over observations. Similar, though nested, ROMS configurations have been successfully applied in the Monterey Bay [ Chao et al ., ] and the Gulf of Alaska and Prince William Sound regions [ Farrara et al ., ].…”

Section: Observational Data Sets and Numerical Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The origins of the anomalous warming in the California coastal ocean and San Francisco Bay during 2014–2016

et al. 2017

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During 2014 exceptionally warm water temperatures developed across a wide area off the California coast and within San Francisco Bay (SFB) and persisted into 2016. Observations and numerical model output are used to document this warming and determine its origins. The coastal warming was mostly confined to the upper 100 m of the ocean and was manifested strongly in the two leading modes of upper ocean (0–100 m) temperature variability in the extratropical eastern Pacific. Observations suggest that the coastal warming in 2014 propagated into nearshore regions from the west while later indicating a warming influence that propagated from south to north into the region associated with the 2015–2016 El Niño event. An analysis of the upper ocean (0–100 m) heat budget in a Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) simulation confirmed this scenario. The results from a set of sensitivity runs with the model in which the lateral boundary conditions varied supported the conclusions drawn from the heat budget analysis. Concerning the warming in the SFB, an examination of the observations and the heat budget in an unstructured‐grid numerical model simulation suggested that the warming during the second half of 2014 and early 2016 originated in the adjacent California coastal ocean and propagated through the Golden Gate into the Bay. The finding that the coastal and Bay warming are due to the relatively slow propagation of signals from remote sources raises the possibility that such warming events may be predictable many months or even several seasons in advance.

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“…Persistence has been extensively used in meteorology ( Van den Dool, 2007) but less in oceanography (Farrara et al, 2013;Oey et al, 2005;Rowe et al, 2016;Shriver et al, 2007;Solabarrietaa et al, 2016;Vandenbulcke et al, 2009) as a performance benchmark. For quantifying improvements in ocean current forecasts, particularly the Lagrangian predictability, persistence has been typically taken as either a constant last known position (Barron et al, 2007;Kuang et al, 2012;Schmidt & Gangopadhyay, 2013;Ullman et al, 2006) or constant last known velocity (Paldor et al, 2004;Rixen & Ferreira-Coelho, 2007) of a surface-drifting buoy held constant.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Crossover Time as an Evaluation of Ocean Models Against Persistence

Phillipson

Toumi

2018

Geophysical Research Letters

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A new ocean evaluation metric, the crossover time, is defined as the time it takes for a numerical model to equal the performance of persistence. As an example, the average crossover time calculated using the Lagrangian separation distance (the distance between simulated trajectories and observed drifters) for the global MERCATOR ocean model analysis is found to be about 6 days. Conversely, the model forecast has an average crossover time longer than 6 days, suggesting limited skill in Lagrangian predictability by the current generation of global ocean models. The crossover time of the velocity error is less than 3 days, which is similar to the average decorrelation time of the observed drifters. The crossover time is a useful measure to quantify future ocean model improvements.

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A data-assimilative ocean forecasting system for the Prince William sound and an evaluation of its performance during sound Predictions 2009

Cited by 17 publications

References 30 publications

High‐resolution modeling of coastal freshwater discharge and glacier mass balance in the Gulf of Alaska watershed

High‐resolution modeling of coastal freshwater discharge and glacier mass balance in the Gulf of Alaska watershed

The origins of the anomalous warming in the California coastal ocean and San Francisco Bay during 2014–2016

The Crossover Time as an Evaluation of Ocean Models Against Persistence

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