A deep convolutional neural network for predicting electricity consumption at Grey Nuns building in Canada

Abstract

Purpose The energy efficiency of buildings has been emphasized along with the continual development in the building and construction sector that consumes a significant amount of energy. To this end, the purpose of this research paper is to forecast energy consumption to improve energy resource planning and management. Design/methodology/approach This study proposes the application of the convolutional neural network (CNN) for estimating the electricity consumption in the Grey Nuns building in Canada. The performance of the proposed model is compared against that of long short-term memory (LSTM) and multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural networks. The models are trained and tested using monthly electricity consumption records (i.e. from May 2009 to December 2021) available from Concordia’s facility department. Statistical measures (e.g. determination coefficient [R2], root mean squared error [RMSE], mean absolute error [MAE] and mean absolute percentage error [MAPE]) are used to evaluate the outcomes of models. Findings The results reveal that the CNN model outperforms the other model predictions for 6 and 12 months ahead. It enhances the performance metrics reported by the LSTM and MLP models concerning the R2, RMSE, MAE and MAPE by more than 4%, 6%, 42% and 46%, respectively. Therefore, the proposed model uses the available data to predict the electricity consumption for 6 and 12 months ahead. In June and December 2022, the overall electricity consumption is estimated to be 195,312 kWh and 254,737 kWh, respectively. Originality/value This study discusses the development of an effective time-series model that can forecast future electricity consumption in a Canadian heritage building. Deep learning techniques are being used for the first time to anticipate the electricity consumption of the Grey Nuns building in Canada. Additionally, it evaluates the effectiveness of deep learning and machine learning methods for predicting electricity consumption using established performance indicators. Recognizing electricity consumption in buildings is beneficial for utility providers, facility managers and end users by improving energy and environmental efficiency.