A dynamic international demand model

Morley, Clive

doi:10.1016/s0160-7383(97)00067-4

“…In addition, it avoids a possible overestimation of the effect of other regressors (Morley, 1998;Garín-Muñoz, 2006). M_ita i,t is the stock of Italian citizens residing in destination i , whilst M_for i,t is the stock of the country i's citizens residing in Italy.…”

Section: Estimating the Migration Tourism Nexusmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Figure 1) on the main categories of the tourism demand has been never assessed. Last but not least, the econometric approach often disregards the panel structure of the data and the dynamic behavior of tourism demand, which might cause a serious bias in the estimates (Cf, Morley, 1998).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Migration and outbound tourism: Evidence from Italy

Etzo

¹

,

Massidda

²

,

Piras

³

2014

Annals of Tourism Research

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This paper investigates the impact of migration on Italian outbound tourism trips disaggregated by purpose of visit. A dynamic panel data analysis is carried out on a sample of 65 countries over the period [2005][2006][2007][2008][2009][2010][2011]. To disentangle pushing and pulling effects, the migration variables are defined at both the origin and the destination of tourism flows. We also control for the Italian real GDP per capita, relative prices and distance. The results show that the stock of Italian residing abroad has a positive impact on outbound tourism for all purposes. Conversely, the stock of foreign-born citizens residing in Italy appears to push Italian outbound tourism for business motives and visiting friends and relatives, but not for holiday trips.

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“…See for instance Clewer, Pack and Sinclair (1990), Dharmaratne (1995), Kulendran and King (1997), Morley (1998), Smeral and Weber (2000) and Brännäs, Hellström and Nordström (2002). Within this approach, the most common determinants of demand are income and price levels, which is measured in terms of relative prices by exchange rates, CPI and cost of transportation.…”

Section: Modelling Tourists' Arrivalsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Tourism and Economic Growth in Latin American Countries: A Panel Data Approach

Eugenio-Martin

¹

,

Morales

²

,

Scarpa

³

2004

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Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. The opinions expressed in this paper do not necessarily reflect the position of Terms of use: Documents in Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei Tourism and Economic Growth in Latin American Countries: A Panel Data Approach SummaryWe consider the relationship between tourism and economic growth for Latin American countries since 1985 until 1998. The analysis proposed is based on a panel data approach and the Arellano-Bond estimator for dynamic panels. We obtain estimates of the relationship between economic growth and growth in tourists per capita conditional on main macroeconomic variables. We show that the tourism sector is adequate for the economic growth of medium or low-income countries, though not necessarily for developed countries. We then invert the causality direction of the analysis. Rather than explaining economic growth, we try to explain tourism arrivals conditional on GDP and other covariates such as safety, prices and education level, and investment in infrastructures. We employ a generalised least squares AR(1) panel data model. The results provide evidence that lowincome countries seem to need adequate levels of infrastructures, education and development to attract tourists. Medium-income countries need high levels of social development like health services and high GDP per capita levels. Finally, the results disclose that price of the destination, in terms of exchange rate and PPP is irrelevant for tourism growth.

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“…In his meta-analysis of the tourism literature, Crouch (1995) finds a central estimates of the travel cost elasticity of -0.85, with a standard deviation of 1.15; the underlying estimates range from 0.11 to -1.89. Morley (1998) estimates a range of fare elasticities of -0.04 to -2.80 for travellers to Australia. Garin-Munoz (2006) estimates crude oil price elasticities of -0.12 to -0.15 in the short run, and -0.22 to -0.41 in the long run for visitors to the Canary Islands.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The impact of a carbon tax on international tourism

Tol

¹

2007

Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment

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Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Terms of use: Documents in EconStor may AbstractA simulation model of international tourist flows is used to estimate the impact of a carbon tax on aviation fuel. The effect of the tax on travel behaviour is small: A global $1000/tC would change travel behaviour to reduce carbon dioxide emissions from international aviation by 0.8%. This is because the imposed tax is probably small relative to the air fare. A $1000/tC tax would less than double air fares, and have a smaller impact on the total cost of the holiday. In addition, the price elasticity is low. A carbon tax on aviation fuel would particularly affect long-haul flights, because of high emissions, and short-haul flights, because of the emission during take-off and landing. Medium distance flights would be affected least. This implies that tourist destinations that rely heavily on short-haul flights (that is, islands near continents, such as Ireland) or on intercontinental flights (e.g., Africa) will see a decline in international tourism numbers, while other destinations may see international arrivals rise. If the tax is only applied to the European Union, EU tourists would stay closer to home so that EU tourism would grow at the expense of other destinations. Sensitivity analyses reveal that the qualitative insights are robust. A carbon tax on aviation fuel would have little effect on international tourism, and little effect on emissions. Key wordsInternational tourism, tax, carbon dioxide, aviation JEL ClassificationL83, L93, Q54 IntroductionTransport is responsible for a large portion of carbon dioxide emissions, and its emissions are growing faster than those from other sources. 1 Moreover, emission reduction appears to be more difficult and more expensive in transport than it is in other sectors, particularly power 1 See Greening (2004), http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/emissions/co2_human.html, and http://themes.eea.europa.eu/Environmental_issues/climate/indicators. generation (Barker et al., 2001; Schaefer and Jacoby, 2005;Van Vuuren et al., 2006). International aviation is the fastest growing part of transport and it is more difficult to regulate than domestic transport, inter alia because it is outside the jurisdiction of a single country. Should abatement be successful for power generation and domestic transport, the increasing emissions from international aviation would stand out (Pridmore et al., 2003) and pressure to reduce emissions would increase. This paper investigates the poten...

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A dynamic international demand model

Cited by 106 publications

References 12 publications

Migration and outbound tourism: Evidence from Italy

Migration and outbound tourism: Evidence from Italy

Tourism and Economic Growth in Latin American Countries: A Panel Data Approach

The impact of a carbon tax on international tourism

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