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This article provides an SVECM investigation of long-run, short-run and contemporaneous relationships across per capita international tourism arrivals ( ar), real GDP ( y), and total international commercial transactions ( tr) for the Italian economy. We find that variables span a bidimensional cointegrating space, which we normalize as long-run relationships between y and ar and between ar and tr. Signs and magnitudes of the estimated elasticities are as expected and compare well with the literature. The causation mechanism shows that none of the variables are weakly exogenous. What we find is that, whereas there appears to be unidirectional long-run causality running from y to tr and from tr to ar, bidirectional causality is detected between y and ar. Structural estimation and a study of the Impulse-Response functions of “meaningful” shocks hitting the economy are used to provide valuable insights for policy and business strategy design.

This paper investigates the impact of migration on Italian outbound tourism trips disaggregated by purpose of visit. A dynamic panel data analysis is carried out on a sample of 65 countries over the period [2005][2006][2007][2008][2009][2010][2011]. To disentangle pushing and pulling effects, the migration variables are defined at both the origin and the destination of tourism flows. We also control for the Italian real GDP per capita, relative prices and distance. The results show that the stock of Italian residing abroad has a positive impact on outbound tourism for all purposes. Conversely, the stock of foreign-born citizens residing in Italy appears to push Italian outbound tourism for business motives and visiting friends and relatives, but not for holiday trips.

This paper investigates the impact of migration on Italian inbound tourism flows in a dynamic panel data framework. Arrivals, expenditure and nights from 65 countries are analyzed for the period 2005-2011. The migration variable is defined at both origin and destination in order to assess the pushing and pulling forces. Estimates are performed using both aggregated flows and flows disaggregated to separate the VFRs from two non-VFR categories, namely holiday and business. The results suggest the presence of a strong migration-tourism nexus which clearly goes beyond visiting friends and relatives. Moreover, the effects of the different determinants vary according to the way in which the tourism market is segmented and, within each segment, to the way in which tourism demand is measured.

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