A dynamic linear modelling approach to public policy change

Loftis, Matt W.; Mortensen, Peter B.

doi:10.1017/s0143814x17000186

Cited by 9 publications

(3 citation statements)

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“…This does not preclude the possibility that for certain politicians in certain municipalities, more spending on an issue may lead to more, rather than less, demand. Observing β 1 > 0 as a general, average effect would, however, reflect a quite explosive spending process, and when we did not observe this in the models it may have to do with the fact that we look at public spending observed at yearly intervals (see also Loftis and Mortensen ).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 88%

Negative feedback, political attention, and public policy

Bækgaard

Larsen

Mortensen

2019

Public Administration

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More than 50 years of policy research has provided evidence of negative feedback where self-correcting mechanisms reinforce stability in public policies over time. While such mechanisms are at the heart of understanding change and stability in public policies, little attention has been given to the responses of individual policymakers to public policies as a potential driver of negative feedback.Based on a unique survey dataset of spending preferences of local government politicians covering more than 90 Danish municipalities, three years, seven policy issues, and around 3,000 entries, we find that the expressed spending preferences of politicians are indeed negatively affected by previous spending levels. Moreover, such negative feedback effects are stronger, the less the political attention to the issue and even disappear at high levels of attention. Our analysis thus provides important evidence on the micro foundations and conditions of negative feedback in public policy.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 88%

Negative feedback, political attention, and public policy

Bækgaard

Larsen

Mortensen

2019

Public Administration

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“…Hal tersebut menyebabkan kebijakan seringkali mengalami perubahan. Menurut Loftis & Mortenses (2018), efek sebab-akibat (causal effects) adalah faktor yang menyebabkan kebijakan-kebijakan publik seringkali mengalami perubahan.…”

Section: Kebijakanunclassified

The Effectiveness of Financing Policy for the Developing Community Forest Plantation

Alviya

Salaka

Muttaqin³

et al. 2020

j.analisis.kebijak.kehutan.

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Community Plantation Forest, known as Hutan Tanaman Rakyat or HTR, is one of social forestry programs aiming at reducing economic inequality at rural community level. However, there is no evidence that HTR has improved the community welfare at the local level due to some problems particularly funding availability. This study aims to evaluate the effectiveness of financing policy in developing HTR carried out by the Public Service Agency of the Ministry of Environment and Forestry (BLU-KLHK) and to look for alternative sources of funding that might support the ongoing funding mechanism. Survey and focus group discussion (FGD) are methods used to collect the data. Qualitative descriptive, content analysis and Grindle theory approaches are implemented to analyze data. The results show that, based on the content of the policy, HTR financing mechanism managed by BLU-KLHK is efficient, comprehensive and prudent in regulating and facilitating the financial support to develop HTR. However, this funding policy has not been effective to support HTR business development at the implementation stages. Some other funding schemes that might be potential to support the development of HTR include LPDB, SBSN, Rural Area Development Program, and Village Fund.

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“…Posisi kebijakan yang digariskan dalam ringkasan kebijakan kemudian diperluas, dijelaskan dan dirasionalisasikan dalam rekomendasi kebijakan, dan merupakan sumber utama rincian di mana informasi kunci pada topik masalah dapat di akses. Hal ini menyebabkan risalah kebijakan menjadi jawaban untuk meningkatkan kualitas sebuah kebijakan, namun kenyataannya risalah kebijakan yang dibuat oleh institusi pemerintah tidak menunjukkan kualitas dan model kebijakan yang jelas (Loftis & Mortensen, 2017;Smith, 2018:21;Pennock, 2019:65). Akibat nya terjadi banyak kebijakan tidak merepresentasikan tujuan utama yang ingin dicapai, dan terkesan bahwa kebijakan hanyalah sebuah aturan yang harus dipatuhi (Jagers, Matti, & Nordblom, 2019).…”

Section: Model Kebijakanunclassified

Pemodelan Kebijakan Publik: Tinjauan Dan Analisis Untuk Risalah Kebijakan Pemerintah

Andhika¹

2019

j. ris. pembang.

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ABSTRAK Artikel penelitian ini menyajikan pemodelan kebijakan dalam risalah kebijakan, dan menentukan rekomendasi untuk pilihan kebijakan secara politis. Pemodelan dalam kebijakan dapat mengenali perubahan struktur kebijakan secara eksogen terhadap obyek kebijakan. Pemodelan dalam risalah kebijakan menginformasikan keputusan kebijakan yang didasari oleh fenomena masalah tertentu atau keseluruhan, dan kebutuhan untuk mempercepat perubahan mendasar menuju analisis kebijakan yang lebih dinamis. Meta-theory (the analysis of theory) digunakan untuk meninjau dan menganalisis pemodelan kebijakan yang terdapat pada risalah kebijakan dari beberapa temuan literatur yang relevan. Artikel penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa pemodelan kebijakan mesti dilakukan dengan isu masalah yang kompleks, memilih model, menentukan pemodelan berdasarkan input pemodelan, dan objek kebijakan. Pemodelan dipandang sebagai keharusan dalam menghadapi sistem pengaturan kepentingan pemerintah yang sangat kompleks. Keuntungan dan kerugian dari implementasi kebijakan mesti diperhatikan, agar kebijakan tersebut dapat berjalan sesuai dengan norma dan sampai kepada tujuan nya. Oleh karena itu risalah kebijakan dapat merangsang pengajuan kebijakan yang berkualitas, dengan pemodelan kebijakan sebagai alat memberikan rekomendasi yang tepat terhadap pilihan kebijakan. Disamping itu risalah kebijakan yang di tulis oleh para peneliti dan akademisi menjadi alternatif informasi primer bagi pembuat kebijakan. Akhir nya bagi peneliti masa depan, minimal artikel ini dapat menjadi penelitian pendahuluan (preliminary research) agar dapat menguraikan pemodelan kebijakan dalam konteks empiris.Kata kunci: Risalah kebijakan; Kebijakan publik; Pembuat pebijakan; PemerintahABSTRACTThis research article presents policy modeling in policy briefs, and determines the recommendation for political policy option. Modeling in policy can recognize changes in a policy structure exogenous towards the policy object. Modeling in policy briefs informs policy decisions that are based on the phenomenon of a particular or overall problem, and the need to accelerate fundamental changes towards more dynamic policy analysis. Meta-theory (the Analysis of theory) is used to review and analyze the policy modeling contained in the policy brief of some relevant literature. This research article describes that policy modeling must be carried out with complex problem issues, selecting models, determining to a model based on modeling inputs, and policy objects. Modeling is seen as a necessity in the face of a very complex system of regulating government interests. The advantages and disadvantages of implementing the policy must be considered, so that the policy in accordance with the norms for reach its objectives. Therefore policy briefs can stimulate a quality policy submissions, with policy modeling as a tool providing appropriate recommendations for policy choices. In addition, the policy briefs are written by researchers and academics become alternative primary information for policy makers. Finally, for future researchers, at least this article can be a preliminary research in order to describe policy modeling in an empirical context.Keywords: Policy briefs; Public policy; Policymakers; Government

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A dynamic linear modelling approach to public policy change

Cited by 9 publications

References 65 publications

Negative feedback, political attention, and public policy

Negative feedback, political attention, and public policy

The Effectiveness of Financing Policy for the Developing Community Forest Plantation

Pemodelan Kebijakan Publik: Tinjauan Dan Analisis Untuk Risalah Kebijakan Pemerintah

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