A dynamic system approach to risk analysis for megaproject delivery

Abstract

This article describes a dynamic systems approach to quantitative risk assessment and simulation in megaprojects with regard to social, technical, economic, environmental, and political (STEEP) issues relating to sustainability at construction stage. A literature review was conducted to justify the needs for such a dynamic systems approach that originally integrates the functions of two sophisticated quantitative methods including the analytic network process (ANP) and the system dynamics (SD) for an advanced solution to tackle problems of overruns on budget and schedule (OBS) at the construction stage in megaproject delivery. The new dynamic systems approach called Sdanp is described in details with a theoretical framework and its technical procedure for application. This article finally provides an experimental case study on the Edinburgh Tram Network (ETN) project to demonstrate the usefulness of the Sdanp method and it also discusses its implementation to support risk management in megaproject delivery towards sustainability.

Risk Assessment of High-Speed Rail Projects: A Risk Coupling Model Based on System Dynamics

“…Methods used for risk assessment in construction projects include the analytic hierarchy process, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, Delphi, Monte Carlo simulation, system dynamics, etc. [14,17,[54][55][56][57][58][59][60][61]. Table 2 shows some general methods commonly used for risk assessment in construction projects.…”

“…Through SD, Nasirzadeh modeled the interdependent components and external interactions of machine breakdown risk and quantified the full impact of this risk on the duration and cost of a bridge construction project [65]. Generally speaking, the steps of system dynamics modelling include [59,60]:…”

“…Through SD, Nasirzadeh modeled the interdependent components and external interactions of machine breakdown risk and quantified the full impact of this risk on the duration and cost of a bridge construction project [ 65 ]. Generally speaking, the steps of system dynamics modelling include [ 59 , 60 ]: System Analysis. To articulate the problem and determine the boundary of the system and subsystem; that is, to determine the scope of the study.…”

“…[ 59,60] System dynamics A complex system with multiple variables and nonlinear characteristics can be constructed and predicted dynamically, and the interactions of the system's components can be represented quantitatively.…”