A framework for assessing project vulnerability to crises

Abstract

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to propose a framework for assessing the vulnerability of projects to crises. The study seeks to clarify the cascade effects of disruptions leading to project crises and to improve project robustness against crises from a systems perspective. Design/methodology/approach A framework for assessing project vulnerability to crises is developed using complex network theory. The framework includes network representation of project systems, analyzing project network topology, simulating the cascade of unexpected disruptions and assessing project vulnerability. Use of the framework is then illustrated by applying it to a case study of a construction project. Findings Project network topology plays a critical role in resisting crises. By increasing the resilience of the critical tasks and adjusting the structure of a project, the complexity and vulnerability of the project can be reduced, which in turn decreases the occurrence of crises. Research limitations/implications The proposed framework is used in a case study. Further studies of its application to projects in diverse industries would be beneficial to enhance the robustness of the results. Practical implications Project crises can threaten the survival of a project and endanger the organization’s security. The proposed framework helps prevent and mitigate project crises by protecting critical tasks and blocking the diffusion path from a systems perspective. Originality/value This paper presents a novel framework based on complex network theory to assess project vulnerability, which provides a systemic understanding of the cascade of disruptions that lead to project crises.

An investigation of key precursors of megaproject crises

“…Unexpected events are unavoidable in megaprojects (Nachbagauer and Schirl-Boeck, 2019). Moreover, due to interdependence among project components (task, stakeholder, organization and management), small-scale disturbances can incur an avalanche breakdown throughout the whole project, resulting in a crisis (Kardes et al, 2013;Thamhain, 2013;Wang, 2019). A lack of resilience and adaptability to unexpected events will undermine the security of megaprojects (Love et al, 2018).…”

“…Despite the advancement in project management tools and techniques, megaprojects still suffer from crisis, underperformance and failure (Flyvbjerg, 2017). Foreseeable uncertainty or risk with predictable outcomes can be addressed by conventional approaches of risk management (Lenfle and Loch, 2017), while a crisis is unforeseen and unpredictable (Iftikhar et al, 2021;Wang, 2019).…”

“…Simard and Laberge (2018) analyze the development process of a crisis in an IT business project. Wang (2019) proposes a network-based framework to assess project vulnerability to crises. A few studies on crises in megaprojects have investigated crisis coping strategies (e.g.…”

Pandemics, public-private partnerships (PPPs), and force majeure | COVID-19 expectations and implications

“…5. Wang (2019) recently proposed a new framework for assessing project vulnerability to crises which includes network representations of project systems, analyses of project network topologies, simulations of cascading, unexpected disruptions, and assessments of project vulnerability.…”

Resilience and projects: An interdisciplinary crossroad

“… How does high turn-over of teams (typical of projects) affect resilience? Project Temporary organisation Series of tasks and activities Project processes Project structure Resilience projects ( Chang-Richards et al., 2017 ; Steinfort, 2017 ; Choi et al., 2019 ), Project resilience ( Kutsch et al., 2015 ), vulnerability and uncertainty ( Floricel and Miller, 2001 ; Priemus et al., 2013 ; Wang, 2019 ) How should project sub-systems (e.g., individuals) or parent-systems (e.g., organisation, society) be designed to be/not to be resilient? How can engineering tools and methods for building resilience be utilised in projects?…”