A Gas Infrastructure Pathways in East Java Using System Dynamic Approach

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US Trade Representatives at WTO had recently excluded Indonesia in the list of Least Developed countries. One of the reason behind the decision was that considering the potential economic of Indonesia that has consistently shown positive trend of growth. As the economic and population growth, the energy demand in Indonesia is also increasing over the time. Indonesia has an abundant natural gas reserves and in fact is the largest reserves in Southeast Asia. In line with the increasing of global awareness toward the sustainable development and environmental concerns, choices over an affordable source of energy with a less carbon footprint is inevitably. With the latest LNG technology, has made distribution even possible to reach remote areas of Indonesian archipelago. The Indonesian government had set up a strategy to promote the use of natural gas in power generation. The Ministerial Energy and Mining Resources Decree No. 13 K/13/MEM/2020 (Ministerial Energy and Mining Resources, 2020e) issued, January 2020, has mandated the state owned enterprise PERTAMINA to establish LNG supply within 2 years time frame to support the conversion of 52 power plants from diesel fueled to natural gas. This study, is offering stages of research, first is determining supply and demand of natural gas in Indonesia, and then conducting a market analysis. A market review analysis on gas supply and demand is done upon various sectors, ie power plants (in relation to additional demand for the conversion of 52 power plants), industries, transportation and households. From which, it will be analyzed, whether or not the gas supply meet the demand. The result of the simulation is revealing the fact that there will be deficit of supply starting sometime in 2031 (much earlier than Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre’s prediction by 2040), with short gap of about 55 MTPA by end of simulation time, thus if the Government is deciding to maintain the existing export commitment.

Section: Conceptual Modellingsupporting

confidence: 56%

System Dynamics Modelling for a Sustainable Natural Gas Supply and Demand in Indonesia to Meet up the Additional Demand of 52 Converted Power Plants

Purwosaputra

Artana

Dinariyana

2022

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“…System Dynamics is a method and tool that is believed to be the most fits to represent a complex system and to determine feedback behaviors over such complex models that represented a real-life situation in realworld system [9]. System Dynamics model was first built under certain modeling structures, main elements and variables are set and a causal loop is further defined.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…An Iranian researcher has used system dynamics model simulation to forecast the future supply and demand of natural gas in Iran and to assess the public policy in determining natural gas pricing in the entire Iranian Energy system. [7], a more recent study has been conducted by group of Indonesian researchers toward the natural gas supply & demand situation in one of Indonesian Province i.e East Java, they used system dynamics model simulation to predict the future shortage of supply and recommending an infrastructure development plant to anticipate the short of supply in the future [8] and [9].…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The rest of the articles that focusing more on the Infrastructure capacity plan & development are, one Latvian researcher who established a system dynamics model for natural gas infrastructures in Latvia [10], a group of Brazilian researchers who developed a model for natural gas infrastructures development at Southern Brazil [11], another germany researchers who developed a model for natural gas infrastructures expansion in Germany [12], and also one Indonesian researcher who has developed a system dynamics model for gas infrastructures pathways in one Indonesian province i.e Eastern Java [9].…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

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System Dynamics Modelling Scenarios for The Import Receiving Infrastructures Capacity Plan & Development in anticipating Future Deficits of Natural Gas Supply in Indonesia.

Purwosaputra

Artana

Dinariyana

2022

Self Cite

Indonesia is one amongst the biggest natural gas reserves country in south East Asia, with total reserve of about 142,71 TSCF in 2018. Indonesian demand for energy is also increasing over the time in line with its economic and population growth. The improved of global consciousness toward the sustainable environmental issues, has led in to the choice over an affordable source of energy with a less carbon footprint. On the other hand the natural gas supply and domestic production is depleting. At the current rate of consumption and assuming no new reserves discoveries, sooner or later Indonesia will have to face deficit in gas supply. This study, is first aimed to forecast the Indonesia supply and demand situation of natural gas in years to come, and then performing an analysis and assessment toward the availability and adequacy of the required infrastructures especially receiving terminals facilitating for gas import in anticipation of future deficit of gas supply in Indonesia. From which, it will be further analyzed, the geographical distribution of the demand and then potential short of supply in several regions and areas where the demand are most concentrated. Thus few basis System Dynamics scenarios of public policies were simulated for 30 years running simulation. System Dynamics model simulation has been well known as a powerful tool to represent a complex industrial problems such as national energy systems. The result is unveiled the fact that additional import receiving terminals and storage facility is required at certain areas where the deficits most likely exist, and most of them in fact are in Western Zone of Indonesian.

“…This research has been widely used to address several problems, for example in studies describing production capacity and demand [3]. In previous years, several studies have been carried out, one of which is to design demand and supply to solve fertilizer shortages in the East Java region [4] and research on gas distribution in East Java using system dynamics [5]. In this study, system dynamics will be used to determine the scenario of oil distribution in Balikpapan -Samarinda.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

System Dynamics Modelling in Determining Scenario of Oil Distribution Balikpapan - Samarinda

Afanin

Handani

Pratiwi

et al. 2022

Self Cite

East Kalimantan will be designated as the Ibu Kota Negara (IKN) of Indonesia. Energy consumption is predicted to increase, but based on Badan Perencanaan Pembangunan Nasional (Bappenas), fuel consumption will slowly be converted to gas. Previously, the process of fulfilling fuel needs in East Kalimantan was fulfilled using tankers, but with the issue of IKN, the government will build oil pipe Balikpapan – Samarinda that distribute fuel from TBBM Tanjung Batu to TBBM Samarinda and TBBM Palaran This research is for determine which scenario are efficient to distribute the fuel using forecasting methods with trend analysis, exponential smoothing, and moving average, while Powersim Studio 8 software is used for system dynamics modelling. With the help of this application, 6 alternative scenarios are made based on the tank capacity of each TBBM to find out the least amount of pigging. From the simulation, it was found that the second alternative is the most efficient for the process of distributing fuel. Where the results of the simulation process obtained pigging of 58 times/year with the capacity of gasoil TBBM Palaran 10000 kl, gasoil TBBM Samarinda 12306 kl and the gasoline is 14562 kl.