A general modeling framework for exploring the impact of individual concern and personal protection on vector-borne disease dynamics

Abstract

Background As climate variability and extreme weather events associated with climate change become more prevalent, public health authorities can expect to face an expanding spectrum of vector-borne diseases with increasing incidence and geographical spread. Common interventions include the use of larvicides and adulticides, as well as targeted communications to increase public awareness regarding the need for personal protective measures, such as mosquito repellant, protective clothing, and mosquito nets. Here, we propose a simplified compartmental model of mosquito-borne disease dynamics that incorporates the use of personal protection against mosquito bites influenced by two key individual-level behavioral drivers—concern for being bitten by mosquitos as a nuisance and concern for mosquito-borne disease transmission. Methods We propose a modified compartmental model that describes the dynamics of vector-borne disease spread in a naïve population while considering the public demand for community-level control and, importantly, the effects of personal-level protection on population-level outbreak dynamics. We consider scenarios at low, medium, and high levels of community-level vector control, and at each level, we consider combinations of low, medium, and high levels of motivation to use personal protection, namely concern for disease transmission and concern for being bitten in general. Results When there is very little community-level vector control, nearly the entire population is quickly infected, regardless of personal protection use. When vector control is at an intermediate level, both concerns that motivate the use of personal protection play an important role in reducing disease burden. When authorities have the capacity for high-level community vector control through pesticide use, the motivation to use personal protection to reduce disease transmission has little additional effect on the outbreak. Conclusions While results show that personal-level protection alone is not enough to significantly impact an outbreak, personal protective measures can significantly reduce the severity of an outbreak in conjunction with community-level control. Furthermore, the model provides insight for targeting public health messaging to increase the use of personal protection based on concerns related to being bitten by mosquitos or vector-borne disease transmission. Graphical Abstract