A generalized model for testing the home and favorite team advantage in point spread markets

Dare, William H.; MacDonald, Stephen

doi:10.1016/0304-405x(95)00848-9

Cited by 69 publications

(45 citation statements)

References 12 publications

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“…No evidence of bias is found in the college football betting spreads. Dare and MacDonald (1996) generalize the empirical methodology for regression-based tests. Several earlier tests were based on specifications that imposed implicit restrictions on the general model.…”

Section: The Efficiency Of the Fixed-odds Betting Marketmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting football results and the efficiency of fixed‐odds betting

Goddard

Asimakopoulos

2004

Journal of Forecasting

168

104

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An ordered probit regression model estimated using 10 years' data is used to forecast English league football match results. As well as past match results data, the significance of the match for end-of-season league outcomes, the involvement of the teams in cup competition and the geographical distance between the two teams' home towns all contribute to the forecasting model's performance. The model is used to test the weak-form efficiency of prices in the fixed-odds betting market. A strategy of selecting end-of-season bets with a favourable expected return according to the model appears capable of generating a positive return. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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Section: The Efficiency Of the Fixed-odds Betting Marketmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting football results and the efficiency of fixed‐odds betting

Goddard

Asimakopoulos

2004

Journal of Forecasting

168

104

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…However, while much evidence suggests that sports betting markets are inefficient, several studies show either that prior methods were flawed (Dare & MacDonald, 1996) or else that inefficiencies quickly disappear. For instance, Gandar, Zuber, and Lamb (2001) find evidence that the NFL home field advantage does not extend to National Basketball Association or MLB games, and also show that simple strategies proposed for beating the NFL point spread market fail to hold in later periods.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 95%

The home team weather advantage and biases in the NFL betting market

Borghesi

2007

Journal of Economics and Business

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“…This justifi es strategies whereby betting in home underdogs produces signifi cantly higher returns than other simple strategies. However, the empirical evidence in support of such strategies is somewhat inconclusive (e.g., see Dare and MacDonald, 1996;Vergin and Sosik, 1999;Gandar et al, 2001). In an effort to identify behavioural biases in sports betting markets, Avery and Chevalier (1999) found that the price paths of the NFL spread betting markets are affected by investors' sentiments, namely overreaction to new information.…”

Section: Literature Review: Betting Markets and Efficiencymentioning

confidence: 99%

How efficient is the European football betting market? Evidence from arbitrage and trading strategies

Vlastakis

Dotsis

Markellos

2008

Journal of Forecasting

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This paper assesses the international effi ciency of the European football betting market by examining the forecastability of match outcomes on the basis of the information contained in different sets of online and fi xed odds quoted by six major bookmakers. The paper also investigates the profi tability of strategies based on: combined betting, simple heuristic rules, regression models and prediction encompassing. The empirical results show that combined betting across different bookmakers can lead to limited but highly profi table arbitrage opportunities. Simple trading rules and betting strategies based on forecast encompassing are found capable of also producing signifi cant positive returns. Despite the deregulation, globalization and increased competition in the betting industry over recent years, the predictabilities and profi ts reported in this paper are not fully consistent with weak-form market effi ciency.

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A generalized model for testing the home and favorite team advantage in point spread markets

Cited by 69 publications

References 12 publications

Forecasting football results and the efficiency of fixed‐odds betting

Forecasting football results and the efficiency of fixed‐odds betting

The home team weather advantage and biases in the NFL betting market

How efficient is the European football betting market? Evidence from arbitrage and trading strategies

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