A generalized natural hazard risk modelling framework for infrastructure failure cascades

Mühlhofer, Evelyn; Koks, Elco; Kropf, Chahan M.; Sansavini, Giovanni; Bresch, David N.

doi:10.1016/j.ress.2023.109194

Cited by 36 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 68 publications

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“…We identified ecosystems susceptible to being exposed to transformative pressure from tropical cyclone pattern changes due to a warming climate as early as 2050. Thus, we expanded the study of extreme climate risks from the extensively studied socio-economic realm [2,[61][62][63][64][65] to include ecosystems complementing a growing body of research on the topic [17,49,66]. We found that climate change might significantly affect a large number of coastal ecosystems through tropical cyclone patterns change.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global vulnerability and resilience of coastal ecosystems to tropical cyclones in a warming climate

Kropf,

Vaterlaus,

Bresch

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Coastal ecosystems are recognized to provide a large range of services including erosion prevention, clean water provision, or protection from tropical cyclones storms. However, with climate change, the increase in frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones may alter the composition of the ecosystems themselves potentially degrading the various services they provide. While in general ecosystems are adapted to external perturbations, extreme events can promote rapid and durable shifts. In this study, we quantify the vulnerability of all ecosystems described as ecoregions at a global scale by analyzing the wind fields of tropical cyclones generated from probabilistic historical tracks. We then investigate how tropical cyclone intensity and frequency shifting in a warming climate might lead to ecosystem modifications. We show that a combined 13% of the surface of all terrestrial ecosystems is susceptible to transformation due to cyclone pattern changes between 2020 and 2050 under current policies. Even for the most resilient ecosystems already experiencing winds above 60 m/s regularly, the average interval between two storms is projected to decrease from 19 to 12 years which is potentially close to their recovery time. Our global probabilistic approach being embedded in the established IPCC climate risk frameworks enables the study of a broad temporal range, and advocates for a shift in the consideration of the tropical cyclone impact from immediate damage to effects on long-term natural recovery cycles.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global vulnerability and resilience of coastal ecosystems to tropical cyclones in a warming climate

Kropf,

Vaterlaus,

Bresch

et al. 2023

Preprint

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“…There is currently a large gap in the literature in terms of quantitative risk approaches, as our review only highlighted a very small number of climate risk analyses focused on telecommunication assets. Regional evaluations which consider telecommunication assets include one study assessing the infrastructure impacts from European coastal flooding [75], two quantifying US hurricane impacts [74,76], as well as one global assessment highlighting coastal flooding and tropical storm vulnerability [77]. One key reason for this is a lack of consistent datasets to enable this analysis, as well as a more thorough understanding of how telecom infrastructure could be affected by climate hazards.…”

Section: Telecommunication Infrastructurementioning

confidence: 99%

“…There is a growing recognition that these sectors heavily rely on other supporting infrastructure. Evaluation of social infrastructure interdependencies on a single building level [95], on regional scales [96,97] and on national scales [76] has enabled road-based accessibility studies of health sites and emergency services during climate events [98,99] and network-wide hazard adaptation appraisals [100]. However, modelling frameworks capturing the operational recovery of healthcare and educational services after climate-related disruptions remain understudied.…”

Section: Plos Climatementioning

confidence: 99%

Quantifying climate risks to infrastructure systems: A comparative review of developments across infrastructure sectors

Verschuur,

Fernández-Pérez,

Mühlhofer

et al. 2024

PLOS Clim

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Infrastructure systems are particularly vulnerable to climate hazards, such as flooding, wildfires, cyclones and temperature fluctuations. Responding to these threats in a proportionate and targeted way requires quantitative analysis of climate risks, which underpins infrastructure resilience and adaptation strategies. The aim of this paper is to review the recent developments in quantitative climate risk analysis for key infrastructure sectors, including water and wastewater, telecommunications, health and education, transport (seaports, airports, road, rail and inland waterways), and energy (generation, transmission and distribution). We identify several overarching research gaps, which include the (i) limited consideration of multi-hazard and multi-infrastructure interactions within a single modelling framework, (ii) scarcity of studies focusing on certain combinations of climate hazards and infrastructure types, (iii) difficulties in scaling-up climate risk analysis across geographies, (iv) increasing challenge of validating models, (v) untapped potential of further knowledge spillovers across sectors, (vi) need to embed equity considerations into modelling frameworks, and (vii) quantifying a wider set of impact metrics. We argue that a cross-sectoral systems approach enables knowledge sharing and a better integration of infrastructure interdependencies between multiple sectors.

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“…It contains different infrastructure components such as educational and healthcare facilities; roads and railways; and power lines. An additional module in CLIMADA maps these interdependent infrastructure networks and allows to compute cascading failures (Mühlhofer et al, 2023a). This module can be used to not only access direct physical damages to infrastructure, but also business interruptions due to propagating failures, such as power outages affecting hospitals (Mühlhofer et al, 2023c).…”

Section: Implementation In Climadamentioning

confidence: 99%

A generalized framework for designing open-source natural hazard parametric insurance

Steinmann

Guillod

Fairless

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Parametric insurance schemes allow for payouts to be triggered by real-time hydro-/meteorological parameters instead of waiting for damage assessments, which means they can be settled swiftly, giving people access to funds right after the event. In this work we propose a framework to design parametric insurance schemes and systematically quantify the basis risk: the difference between the parameter-based payout and the actual damage. We implement the framework in the open-source global risk assessment platform CLIMADA and illustrate it with two stylized parametric insurance case studies, targeting tropical cyclones in Mozambique and winter storms in France. The data used and the provided code base are globally-consistent, open-source, and readily available. The presented methods are therefore applicable in data-scarce areas and accessible to stakeholders from the public and private sector. Moreover, our approach can easily be adapted to other hazards and exposures worldwide. This improves the accessibility and transparency of such innovative insurance schemes.

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A generalized natural hazard risk modelling framework for infrastructure failure cascades

Cited by 36 publications

References 68 publications

Global vulnerability and resilience of coastal ecosystems to tropical cyclones in a warming climate

Global vulnerability and resilience of coastal ecosystems to tropical cyclones in a warming climate

Quantifying climate risks to infrastructure systems: A comparative review of developments across infrastructure sectors

A generalized framework for designing open-source natural hazard parametric insurance

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