A Generalized Natural Hazard Risk Modelling Framework for Infrastructure Failure Cascades

Abstract

Critical infrastructures are more exposed than ever to natural hazards in a chaning climate. To understand and manage risk, failure cascades across large, real-world infrastructure networks, caused by real-world hazards, and their impact on people, must be captured. Bridging established methods in both infrastructure and risk modelling communities, we develop an open-source modelling framework which integrates a network-based interdependent infrastructure system model into the globally consistent and spatially explicit natural hazard risk assessment platform CLIMADA. The model captures infrastructure damages, triggers failure cascades and estimates resulting basic service disruptions for the dependent population. It flexibly operates on large areas with publicly available hazard, exposure and vulnerability information, for any infrastructure networks, hazards and geographies of interest. In a validated case study for 2018’s Hurricane Michael across three US states, the model reproduced important failure dynamics among six infrastructure networks, and provided a novel spatial map of where people were likely to experience disruptions in access to healthcare, loss of power and other vital services. Our generalized approach allows for a view on infrastructure risks and their social impacts also in areas where detailed information and risk assessments are traditionally scarce, informing humanitarian activities through hotspot analyses and policy frameworks alike.

Global vulnerability and resilience of coastal ecosystems to tropical cyclones in a warming climate

“…We identified ecosystems susceptible to being exposed to transformative pressure from tropical cyclone pattern changes due to a warming climate as early as 2050. Thus, we expanded the study of extreme climate risks from the extensively studied socio-economic realm [2,[61][62][63][64][65] to include ecosystems complementing a growing body of research on the topic [17,49,66]. We found that climate change might significantly affect a large number of coastal ecosystems through tropical cyclone patterns change.…”

Critical infrastructure network modelling for flood risk analyses: Approach and proof of concept in Accra, Ghana

“…The network-based methods can be further classified in flow-based modelling and topology-based modelling approaches. Flow-based methods focus on goods and services delivered by CIs, whereas topology-based methods focus primarily on the topological presence of a CI, as Mühlhofer et al (2023) apply in a general natural hazard modelling approach for cascading effects. Flood risk analyses using these methods consider, for example, the effect of flooding on roads and the potential damage due to loss of transport connectivity (Scoccimarro et al, 2020) as well as the resulting economic damage .…”