Subtype 1b is the most common strain of Hepatitis C virus (HCV) in China. Here, the molecular epidemiology and epidemic history of this strain were investigated by conducting phylogenetic and population genetic analyses of E1 and NS5B gene sequences sampled from nine Chinese cities. The phylogenetic analysis indicated the presence of two clusters of Chinese strains that did not include reference strains from other countries, suggesting that these clusters represent two independent chains of HCV transmission within China. The remaining Chinese isolates were more closely related to reference strains from other countries. The date of origin and past population dynamics of the two groups were investigated using a new population genetic method, the Bayesian skyline plot. The estimated dates of origin of both groups coincide with the period of the Chinese 'Cultural Revolution' during the years [1966][1967][1968][1969][1970][1971][1972][1973][1974][1975][1976]. Both groups grew at a rapid exponential rate between~1970 and~1990, after which transmission slowed considerably. Possible explanations for the groups' fast spread and subsequent slowdown are discussed, including parenteral transmission by unsafe injection, iatrogenic transmission by infected blood or blood products and improvements in blood safety since 1990. These results shed light on HCV transmission in China and may help to predict the future burden of HCV-related disease in the country.
INTRODUCTIONHepatitis C virus (HCV) is a genetically diverse RNA virus with a single-stranded, positive-sense genome. The virus is classified into six major genotypes with closely related isolates within each genotype being grouped into subtypes (Simmonds et al., 1993;Robertson et al., 1998). Partial genome sequences, particularly those from the E1 and NS5B genes, are commonly used in HCV genotyping and evolutionary analysis (e.g. Simmonds et al., 1993;Smith et al., 1997). Different HCV genotypes and subtypes have different geographical distributions, transmission routes and rates of spread (Bukh et al., 1993;Smith et al., 1997;Pybus et al., 2001). 'Epidemic' subtypes, such as 1a, 1b and 3a, are typically found at high prevalences globally having spread rapidly during the twentieth century, probably via infected blood, blood products and injecting drug use. In contrast, 'endemic' strains of HCV are usually less prevalent, found in restricted geographical areas and represent long-term, low-level endemic infection in particular populations Pybus et al., 2001).Evolutionary analysis of sampled virus sequences has advanced considerably during the past decade and is now an important tool in molecular epidemiology. In addition to standard phylogenetic analysis, population genetic methods based on coalescent theory can be used to estimate epidemiological history from viral gene sequences. Coalescent 3These authors contributed equally to this work. , 2003Tanaka et al., 2002Tanaka et al., , 2004Tanaka et al., , 2005Nakano et al., 2004).It has been estimated that 2?5-4?9 % of China's...