A global assessment on adaptation of forests to climate change

Seppälä, Risto

doi:10.1080/02827580903378626

Cited by 46 publications

(44 citation statements)

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“…The application of DGVMs at regional scale indeed has increased the knowledge base pertaining to the climate change impact on vegetation (Sykes et al 2001;Pearson and Dawson 2003). Several studies using DGVMS have demonstrated that the changing climate can affect the distribution of vegetation types and there could even be a potential vegetation dieback (McClean et al 2005;Seppälä 2009). Recent studies in the Himalayas reveal that most of the areas are likely to experience a shift in vegetation types due to changing climate (Zomer et al 2014).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 98%

Projected climate change impacts on vegetation distribution over Kashmir Himalayas

et al. 2015

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Despite high vulnerability, the impact of climate change on Himalayan ecosystem has not been properly investigated, primarily due to the inadequacy of observed data and the complex topography. In this study, we mapped the current vegetation distribution in Kashmir Himalayas from NOAA AVHRR and projected it under A1B SRES, RCP-4.5 and RCP-8.5 climate scenarios using the vegetation dynamics model-IBIS at a spatial resolution of 0.5°. The distribution of vegetation under the changing climate was simulated for the 21st century. Climate change projections from the PRECIS experiment using the HADRM3 model, for the Kashmir region, were validated using the observed climate data from two observatories. Both the observed as well as the projected climate data showed statistically significant trends. IBIS was validated for Kashmir Himalayas by comparing the simulated vegetation distribution with the observed distribution. The baseline simulated scenario of vegetation , showed 87.15 % agreement with the observed vegetation distribution, thereby increasing the credibility of the projected vegetation distribution under the changing climate over the region. According to the model projections, grasslands and tropical deciduous forests in the region would be severely affected while as savannah, shrubland, temperate evergreen broadleaf forest, boreal evergreen forest and mixed forest types would colonize the area currently under the cold desert/rock/ice land cover types. The model predicted that a substantial area of land, presently Climatic Change under the permanent snow and ice cover, would disappear by the end of the century which might severely impact stream flows, agriculture productivity and biodiversity in the region.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 98%

Projected climate change impacts on vegetation distribution over Kashmir Himalayas

et al. 2015

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“…Climatic perturbations can also intensify disturbance processes creating an indirect pathway for changing climate to alter forest systems (Seidl et al, ; Vilà‐Cabrera et al, ). The combination of these direct and indirect pathways may result in increased vulnerability to disturbance and disturbance intensity, placing many forested ecosystems at risk of significant reductions in productivity (Seppälä, ). Further, for those forests which already experience frequent water limitations, the potential outcomes of climate‐related disturbance trend toward widespread tree mortality (Allen et al, , Williams et al, ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Optimizing Forest Management Stabilizes Carbon Under Projected Climate and Wildfires

et al. 2019

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Forests provide a broad set of ecosystem services, including climate regulation. Other ecosystem services can be ecosystem dependent and are in part regulated by local‐scale decision‐making. In the southwestern United States, ongoing climate change is exacerbating a legacy of fire‐exclusion that has altered forest structure and increased high‐severity wildfire risk. Management can mitigate this risk by reducing forest density and restoring frequent surface fires, but at the cost of reduced carbon stocks. We sought to quantify the role of management in building adaptive capacity to projected climate and wildfires and the carbon consequences in a forested watershed. We simulated carbon dynamics under projected climate and wildfires and two management scenarios: prioritized and optimized. The prioritized scenario involved thinning and prescribed burning in areas selected by stakeholders to mitigate high‐severity wildfire risk. The optimized scenario used the probability of high‐severity wildfires to locate thinning treatments and increased prescribed fire area burned relative to the prioritized scenario. Both scenarios reduced wildfire severity and significantly increased net photosynthesis relative to no‐management. However, the optimized scenario decreased management‐related losses by 2.4 Mg • C • ha−1 and wildfire emissions by 2.9 Mg • C • ha−1 relative to the prioritized scenario. By decreasing the area thinned and increasing the area burned relative to the prioritized scenario, the optimized scenario halved the time to realize a net carbon benefit relative to no‐management. Given the increasing climatic and disturbance pressures impacting southwestern forests, management will play a critical role in building adaptive capacity and ensuring the continued provision of ecosystem services.

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“…Speaking about adaptation to climate change was "politically incorrect" because it implied the acceptance of defeat in the battle against greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions [2]. However, thinking on the subject evolved, partly due to the acceptance that climate change may not be avoided [3,4], that ecosystems alone cannot succeed to adapt to the predicted changes [5,6] and that the impacts of climate change may be modified by adaptation measures [7]. Some evidence of this evolution is, for example, the introduction of adaptation into the international climate-change dialogue (agenda of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFFCCC), Conference of the Parties (COP) 10, COP 11), and the first consensual Adaptation is required at all levels of society, from the industrial adaptation of building codes, to the agricultural development of drought-tolerant crops and also in forestry for the selection of tree species, as well as forestry practices which are less vulnerable to climate change.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Adaptation to Climate Change in Forestry: A Multiple Correspondence Analysis (MCA)

Brunette

Bourke

Hanewinkel

et al. 2018

Forests

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Abstract:We analyze economic perspectives of forest adaptation to risk attributes, caused mostly by climate change. We construct a database with 89 systematically chosen articles, dealing simultaneously with climate, adaptation, risk and economy. We classify the database with regard to 18 variables bearing on the characteristics of the paper, the description of the risk and the adaptation strategy, the topic and the corresponding results. To achieve a "high level-of-evidence", we realize a multiple correspondence analysis (MCA) to identify which variables were found in combination with one other in the literature and make distinct groupings affecting adaptive decisions. We identify three groups: (i) profit and production; (ii) microeconomic risk-handling; and (iii) decision and behavior. The first group includes economic costs and benefits as the driver of adaptation and prioritizes simulation, and a mix of theoretical and empirical economic approach. The second group distinctly involves risk-related issues, in particular its management by adaptation. The third group gathers a large set of social and behavioral variables affecting management decisions collected through questionnaires. Such an approach allows the identification of gaps in the literature, concerning the impact of owners' preferences towards risk and uncertainty regarding adaptation decisions, the fact that adaptation was often reduced in an attempt to adapt to the increasing risk of wildfire, or the existence of a regional bias.

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A global assessment on adaptation of forests to climate change

Cited by 46 publications

References 0 publications

Projected climate change impacts on vegetation distribution over Kashmir Himalayas

Projected climate change impacts on vegetation distribution over Kashmir Himalayas

Optimizing Forest Management Stabilizes Carbon Under Projected Climate and Wildfires

Adaptation to Climate Change in Forestry: A Multiple Correspondence Analysis (MCA)

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