A hierarchical risk model for traffic participants

Abstract

As traffic participation is inherently a risky activity, trafic psychology has generated a great number of so-called risk models, i.e. models in which the risk concept plays a major role. Three of these models are attracting a great deal of attention these days: Niitinen and Summala's 'Model of drivers' decision making and behaviour', Wilde's 'Theory of risk homeostasis' and Fuller's 'Threatavoidance model of driver behaviour'. All three models emphasize motivational aspects with regard to risk and they claim to be generally applicable to a large array of traffic situations. In an attempt to use these models for quantitative predictions in a concrete example (an overtaking manoeuvre), we found that many model components had not been defined at all, o r had been defined only partially, or in a contradictory fashion. We have therefore developed our own model which allows quantitative calculations in terns of behaviour alternatives, subjective probabilities of events, and utilities of the outcomes of behaviour alternatives. The concept of risk is more sharply defined as well. Further, the model explicitly takes into account that trafic tasks may be conceived as hierarchically ordered in strategic, tactical and operational task levels.

Comprendre le risque routier professionnel par l’analyse de l’activité : l’exemple des conducteurs de travaux

“…L'accident devient alors le résultat d'une situation dans laquelle le conducteur ne peut mettre en oeuvre ses processus habituels de contrôle ou de récupération des erreurs (il s'agit alors , car elle reprend bien les concepts liés au risque et à sa gestion. Grâce au modèle d'activité de conduite (Allen, Lunenfeld et Alexander, 1971 ;Michon, 1985) et au modèle de prise de risque (Van Der Molen et Bötticher, 1988), nous pouvons discuter des facteurs d'erreur lors de la conduite automobile. Le premier facteur relève de l'interférence (Lemercier et Cellier, 2008) entre la réalisation de la tâche de conduite automobile et une autre tâche.…”

“…Le second facteur est la violation des règles lors de l'activité de conduite. D'après le modèle de Van Der Molen et Bötticher (1988), le conducteur a un comportement que nous pouvons comparer à celui du sujet au travail. Tous deux évaluent la situation en fonction du niveau de risque et de leurs motivations et il se peut qu'ils choisissent de prendre un risque afin d'atteindre leurs buts.…”

Advancing simulation-based driver training

“…Literature contains several driver hierarchies, mostly comprising three levels (e.g., Michon, 1985;Rasmussen, 1983;Van der Molen & Bötticher, 1988) or four levels (e.g., Hatakka et al, 2002;Hollnagel et al, 2003;. Researchers have also proposed to combine hierarchies or taxonomies into a two-dimensional matrix (Hale et al, 1990) or a three-dimensional cube (Summala, 1996;Theeuwes, 2001).…”

The risk handling behaviour of white water kayakers.

“…Wagenaar (1992) discusses the different psychological processes, which reflect levels of operation that were identified by Van der Molen and Boetticher (1988) and Rasmussen (1982;. In his discussion he combines the three levels of operation identified.…”

“…In his discussion he combines the three levels of operation identified. The bottom level he equates with Van der Molen and Boetticher's (1988) operational level or Rasmussen's skill-based behaviour. This level describes the person's ongoing or routine behaviour during the actual activity.…”