A history of ENSO events since A.D. 1525: implications for future climate change

Abstract

Reconstructions of past climate are important for providing a historical context for evaluating the nature of 20th century climate change. Here, a number of percentile-based palaeoclimate reconstructions were used to isolate signals of both phases of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). A total of 92 (82) El Niño (La Niña) events were reconstructed since A.D. 1525. Significantly, we introduce the most comprehensive La Niña event record compiled to date. This annual record of ENSO events can now be used for independent verification of climate model simulations, reconstructions of ENSO indices and as a chronological control for archaeologists/social scientists interested in human responses to past climate events. Although extreme ENSO events are seen throughout the 478-year ENSO reconstruction, approximately 43% of extreme and 28% of all protracted ENSO events (i.e. both El Niño and La Niña phase) occur in the 20th century. The post-1940 period alone accounts for 30% of extreme ENSO years observed since A.D. 1525. These results suggest that ENSO may operate differently under natural (pre-industrial) and anthropogenic background states. As evidence of stresses on water supply, agriculture and natural ecosystems caused by climate change strengthens, studies into how ENSO will operate under global warming should be a global research priority.

Coping Strategies to Deal with Environmental Variability and Extreme Climatic Events in the Peruvian Anchovy Fishery

“…Although the relation between climate change and El Niño events has been debated during the last decades [27][28][29][30][31][32], recent research has revealed that 43% of extreme El Niño events have occurred since the start of the 20th century and 30% during the post-1940 period [33]. These results suggest that ENSO may operate differently under natural (pre-industrial) and anthropogenic background states [33]. The aim of this study is to investigate the evolution of coping strategies developed by the Peruvian anchovy fishery to deal with environmental variability and extreme El Niño events, whose frequency can be expected to increase under current climate change scenarios [33,34].…”

Reconstructing El Niño Southern Oscillation using data from ships’ logbooks, 1815–1854. Part II: Comparisons with existing ENSO reconstructions and implications for reconstructing ENSO diversity

“…Despite these differences, documentary sources often have fewer dating uncertainties associated with them than proxy records, so provide a good source of comparison for the logbook-based reconstructions as their dating errors are also minimal. Finally, Gergis and Fowler (2009), GF09, present a chronology of ENSO events since AD 1525, the same period as the Quinn chronology, which looked at both El Niño and La Niña events. They used a range of complementary proxy data and documentary evidence.…”

“…Finally, a comparison to the reconstructions of Gergis and Fowler (2009) was carried out. GF09 identify seven moderate to extreme El Niño and seven moderate to extreme La Niña events in the period 1815-1854.…”

Carbon and Nitrogen Stocks and Below-Ground Allometry in Temperate Mangroves

“…Mature A. marina trees in New Zealand range in size from <1 m to over 6 m with taller trees generally found toward the northern distribution range (Morrisey et al, 2010). Mangrove expansion has been associated with increased sedimentation and periods of favorable weather conditions (low wind and wave activity) occurring during El Niño weather patterns, which are predicted to strengthen with climate change (Cane, 2005;Gergis and Fowler, 2009;Morrisey et al, 2010).…”