A kingdom in decline: Holocene range contraction of the lion (Panthera leo) modelled with global environmental stratification

Abstract

Aim We use ecological niche models and environmental stratification of palaeoclimate to reconstruct the changing range of the lion (Panthera leo) during the late Pleistocene and Holocene. Location The modern (early 21st century) range of the lion extends from southern Africa to the western Indian Subcontinent, yet through the 20th century this range has been drastically reduced in extent and become increasingly fragmented as a result of human impacts. Methods We use Global Environmental Stratification with MaxEnt ecological niche models to map environmental suitability of the lion under current and palaeoclimatic scenarios. By examining modelled lion range in terms of categorical environmental strata, we characterise suitable bioclimatic conditions for the lion in a descriptive manner. Results We find that lion habitat suitability has reduced throughout the Holocene, controlled by pluvial/interpluvial cycles. The aridification of the Sahara 6ka dramatically reduced lion range throughout North Africa. The association of Saharan aridification with the development of pastoralism and the growth of sedentary communities, who practised animal husbandry, would have placed additional and lasting anthropogenic pressures on the lion. Main Conclusions This research highlights the need to integrate the full effects of the fluctuating vegetation and desiccation of the Sahara into palaeoclimatic models, and provides a starting point for further continental-scale analyses of shifting faunal ranges through North Africa and the Near East during the Holocene. This scale of ecological niche modelling does not explain the current pattern of genetic variation in the lion, and we conclude that narrow but substantial physical barriers, such as rivers, have likely played a major role in population vicariance throughout the Late Pleistocene.

Stable climate corridors promote gene flow in the Cape sand snake species complex (Psammophiidae)

“…Many species are postulated to have shifted their ranges due to Quaternary climate shifts, presumably due to development of unfavourable climate conditions outside of their tolerances or preferences (Erasmus et al, 2002;Hewitt, 2004;Waltari et al, 2007). This has been shown for African ungulates (Lorenzen et al, 2012), the African lion, Panthera leo (Cooper et al, 2021) and Iranian lizards (Kafash et al, 2020) as well as Psammophis (Gonçalves et al, 2018). Climate cycling has shown to influence the distribution of the Psammophis shokari in North Africa.…”

Predicted Pleistocene–Holocene range and connectivity declines of the vulnerable fishing cat and insights for current conservation

“…Yet, despite the fishing cat's conservation status and its sympatry with humans, little is known about its ecology, population status or the drivers behind its apparent disjunct distribution, and this lack of knowledge only serves to hinder targeted conservation efforts (Zanin & Neves, 2019). An ecological niche modelling approach that considers both current and paleoenvironmental conditions may provide an improved understanding of the species' potential distribution, help direct conservation efforts into areas with a high likelihood of occurrence and provide a unique deep‐time perspective for understanding the historical context of the species' current disjunct distribution and present vulnerability (Cooper et al, 2021).…”